Democrats To Win Back House This Fall By 78%, fivethirtyeight

[appalachiablue]

Forecasting the race for the House, Updated Sep. 11, 2018, at 10:49 PM

7 in 9 Chance Democrats win control (78.7%)

2 in 9 Chance Republicans keep control (21.3%)

AverageMedianCurrentbreakdownCurrentbreakdownMajorityMajorityBreakdown of seats byparty?Higherprobability267 D168 R247 D188 R227 D208 R227 R208 D247 R188 D

More, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/

[JoeOtterbein]

1. 2 in 9 Chance Russians successfully hack the machines? I'm thinking more like

4 in 5 Chance to adjust for the pre-hacked machines.

[appalachiablue]

2. With the scrutiny, they should back off some! We'll find out soon enuff.

[RockRaven]

3. I don't trust that predictive models fully capture voter suppression/de facto disenfranchisement

B/c the GOP never stops those efforts. Even when the districts are gerrymandered the same way from one election to the next, the GOP has had 2 more years of f-ing with voting rolls, closing polling places, etc.

We've got to fight for every vote in every district in every election regardless of what we think or hope might happen, b/c there's a crap-load of dirty tricks and rat f-ing going on to try to prevent the people's will from being enacted.

[appalachiablue]

4. The way it is unfortunately. And they should lay off too,

but won't of course. I've rarely followed 5/38 liked this fall 'forecast' number.

[Staph]

5. Don't forget

Hillary Clinton was at about 75%.


G. O. T. V.!!!