Trump has over-promised to his base. That makes a terrible outcome more likely. - By Greg Sargent
Here’s my big fear right now. President Trump has made too many ridiculous promises to his base voters at precisely the moment he needs them the most, given that the Russia probes are closing in around him. And that makes it more likely that Trump will see a need to throw his base some bloody meat — in the form of ending protections for 800,000 people brought here illegally as children; or in the form of pardoning Joe Arpaio.
Either of those by itself would be a terrible outcome. Both would be even worse.
Trump is very attuned to the cheers that cascade down upon him at his rallies. It is ominous that, at his unhinged hate rant in Arizona, some of the greatest outpourings of approval rained down when Trump hinted he would pardon Arpaio and when he demanded that Congress fund his Great Trumpian Wall on the Mexican border. That latter demand is intimately tied up both with the possibility of a government shutdown and with the fate of those 800,000 “dreamers.” And that creates additional pressure on him to throw his base a “win.”
This morning, CNN’s David Wright offered some new reporting that suggests what might happen to the program protecting the dreamers, which is called Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals and grants them temporary work permits and protection from deportation. Wright quoted a source claiming Trump is mulling two options: End DACA immediately; or grandfather in those currently protected by it while ending it for new applicants. Trump is reportedly leaning toward the latter. That sounds good, but immigration advocates believe this “grandfathering” would have to mean the current 800,000 would lose their protection and work permits after their DACA status expires, because it’s hard to imagine Trump, who is under pressure from the amnesty-hating right, granting them open-ended protections.
And that means you’d see those 800,000 losing their protections in rolling intervals. This would put pressure on Congress to protect them legislatively, via some form of legalization. Republicans (many of whom recognize the dreamers are blameless) would probably want to do this, for both moral and political reasons. But the White House, which is planning to use the dreamers as a “bargaining chip,” will probably demand that any such outcome also include funding for Trump’s wall. Democrats (whose support Republicans will need) won’t go along with that.
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2017/08/25/trump-has-over-promised-to-his-base-that-makes-a-terrible-outcome-more-likely/?tid=pm_opinions_pop&utm_term=.9af0599d527b
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