Donald Trump wants to change U.S. nuclear policy. Most Americans aren't persuaded.
By Christopher Gelpi and Elias Assaf February 10 at 6:00 AM
President Trump has already made news, and stoked controversy, by advocating unorthodox policies in unusual ways. In particular, he has signaled a foreign policy that breaks from decades of tradition — questioning alliances including NATO, arguing with allies such as Australia, and advocating an expansion of U.S. nuclear arms, among other things. Ultimately, many longtime foreign policy experts fear that he could undo an entire post-Cold War order and destabilize the international system.
To do so, however, Trump may need the support not only of other political leaders but of the American public itself. Our research suggests that his ability to shape public opinion may be quite constrained. We find that Trump may be successful in mobilizing support among Republicans and some independents — but only for typical Republican policies. For policies that would change the 50 years of U.S. grand strategy, he will likely have difficulty changing public attitudes.
In the weeks leading up to the November election, we conducted an experiment involving more than 1,500 American adults whom we contacted through Qualtrics, a prominent market research firm. Our sample included an equal number of Democrats, Republicans and independents, as well as an equal number of men and women.
In the experiment, participants were randomly assigned to read different news stories about Republican candidates making statements about U.S. nuclear weapons policy, which has been a stable foundation of U.S. grand strategy.
Participants read news stories on one of three topics: criticizing the Obama administration’s nuclear deal with Iran; supporting the development of nuclear weapons by Japan, South Korea and Saudi Arabia; and using nuclear weapons to destroy ISIS. The Iran deal story represents a typical Republican foreign policy position, while the other two stories advocate major changes to U.S. grand strategy. All three were positions that Trump took during the campaign.
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