It will take a miracle for Bernie Sanders to beat Hillary Clinton. And that's OK

[bemildred]

Bernie Sanders can still win the Democratic presidential nomination — but it's going to take a miracle. Actually, several miracles. He'll need to win the primary next week in New York, where polls show him running well behind Hillary Clinton. Then he'll need to win most of the mid-Atlantic states, including Pennsylvania. And he'll need to win big in California and New Jersey in June; small margins of victory won't give him the number of delegates he needs to overtake Clinton's substantial lead. That's not a conspiracy; it's just arithmetic.

And that's OK. This is a case where coming close will still count for something.

From the beginning of his improbable run, Sanders has had two goals in mind. One was to become the Democratic nominee; the other was to build a grass-roots movement that could bring about a “political revolution” from the left.

Sanders and his supporters haven't given up on the first goal. But they're also running his
campaign with that second, longer-term goal firmly in mind.

http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-0410-mcmanus-bernie-miracle-20160410-column.html#nt=oft13a-10gp1

[eomer]

1. That's approximately correct but could (should) be stated more carefully.

It doesn't matter from a math point of view who "wins" each state. What matters is the total number of pledged delegates so a close loss in a given state is about the same as a close win. The effect on momentum is a different question - this is just looking at the delegate math.

So a better way of saying it would be that if Bernie gets 50% of the delegates in all the other remaining states besides California and New Jersey then he would need about 68% of delegates in those two in order to get the most pledged delegates.

Or alternatively if he gets 52% of delegates in the other states then he would need about 64.5% of delegates in California and New Jersey.

This is based on the current count by GreenPapers but with Nevada updated to be 18 to 17 instead of the 20 to 15 that they still show.

The overall percentage that Bernie needs across all remaining states (at this time, just after Wyoming) is 56.5%.

[bemildred]

2. About right. He's not there yet, but it's visible. Now it will get really dirty. nt

[Baobab]

7. I am "so sick and tired" of Hillary...

nt

[bemildred]

9. You will probably get a lot sicker and tireder before this is over.

But it will help a great deal if you turn off any TVs you may have.

[Baobab]

10. You cant turn them off any more.

The electronics stays on all the time unless you unplug them.



Same thing with many computers.

Cell phones too. You have to remove their batteries to fully turn them off.

Cars soon too. They phone home. Even watches, smartphones, etc.

Also, your power meter, gas meter and water meter.

Also, your various credit cards and ID cards contain RFID tags and in some cases, transponders. Unless you have and use an RF shielded wallet (basically a metal pouch to store them in, which blocks RF.)

they likely return a unique identifier when triggered by the right RF signal.

Also, Google "Internet Kill Switch". The replacement of the copper wires phone system by IP-based devices makes American's entire ability to communicate dependent on the Internet working. (while at the same time they abandoned the self-repairing architecture it used to have which would have made it substantially more robust.)

[bemildred]

11. Well, that's an interesting issue.

I think they will regret that. Soon. Connecting everything up. It is like an invitation to bored terrorists and others seeking to amuse themselves.

[Thor_MN]

3. With "Wins" and "Momentum" like Wyoming, the math isn't on his side.

His best performances have been in open caucus states with little diversity. Wyoming is nothing if not that, 90% white and most of the remaining Hispanic. Despite the state being the kind of place Sanders does best, it's looking like no net delegates.

Sanders needs to take a lead in order make the "superdelegates don't count" meme viable. The 438 net superdelegates that have indicated they prefer Clinton are likely to stick with her unless Sanders can take an actual lead. The worst thing that could happen for the party would be for Sanders to take a slight lead and the superdelgates throw the nomination to Clinton. The most likely scenario is that Clinton retains the lead and the superdelegates push her over the top.

[eomer]

4. Wyoming is a strange case because of the small numbers and rounding.

Bernie got approximately what he needs to get - 56% - but the delegate numbers are so small that it rounded to 50%.

If he gets 56.5% in the remaining states then he is good.

[Thor_MN]

5. If he gets 56.5% of the remaining pledged delegates, he will be 50 behind at the convention.

He's 250 back now, there are 1553 remaining pledged delegates. He would need 902 of those delegates or 58% to pull even.

If he is not in the lead, the superdelegates will likely stick with what they have already said they would do, and Clinton wins that scenario. He has a chance, but he needs 58% of whats left and there are closed primary races in diverse states where Sanders does not do as well.

Everyone should vote for who they want, but if you were going to bet money on Sanders, you should be asking for some odds.

[eomer]

6. Not sure where you're getting your numbers, they are wrong as far as I know.

The latest count from The Green Papers is Bernie 1,094 and Hillary 1,310 with 1,647 remaining. The current margin is 1,310 - 1,094 = 216.

It takes 2,026 to win so Bernie needs 2,026 - 1,094 = 932.

The percentage is 932 / 1,647 = 56.59%.

I'm personally showing Bernie +2 and Hillary -2 in Nevada while Green Papers hasn't updated for that change yet. That makes my number 56.47% that Bernie needs.

[Baobab]

8. Mathematicians are on Bernie's side though.

>"With "Wins" and "Momentum" like Wyoming, the math isn't on his side".



At least the ones that I know. It's no contest. Among them he wins unanimously.

[KoKo]

12. I like what Zach Exley said:

A movement for change started with "Stolen Election 2000" and we on the Left have come a long way in organizing and infrastructure since then. That a 74 year old man could have a team that could out "Internet" Hillary in Event and Campaign Organizing and Fact Checking push back without access to her vast network of high powered Donors, Campaign Ops, Surrogates and Mainstream Media bias on his side... is astonishing.

“This campaign is changing people's lives and changing everyone's idea of what's possible,” Sanders's top technologist, Zack Exley, told The Nation magazine. “No matter what happens, people are going to keep fighting for the political revolution that Bernie helped all of us start. What's more, these organizing teams, structures, and processes won't have to be reinvented. They will live on. … This revolution is only just getting started.”

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13. Yeah. It's not really about Bernie any more than it's really about Trump.

People are fed up and there are a couple alternatives on the table this time.