UC Davis News: Autism costs estimated to reach nearly $500 billion, potentially $1 trillion, by 2025

[proverbialwisdom]

https://www.ucdmc.ucdavis.edu/publish/news/newsroom/10214

NEWS | July 28, 2015

Autism costs estimated to reach nearly $500 billion, potentially $1 trillion, by 2025
UC Davis researchers recommend broader access to early intervention, employment support


J. Paul Leigh

(SACRAMENTO, Calif.) — UC Davis health economists have for the first time projected the total costs of caring for all people with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) in the U.S. for the current calendar year and in 10 years if effective interventions and preventive treatments for the condition are not identified and widely available.

Their forecasts for ASD-related medical, nonmedical and productivity losses are $268 billion for 2015 and $461 billion for 2025. The researchers noted that these estimates are conservative and, if ASD prevalence continues to increase as it has in recent years, the costs could reach $1 trillion by 2025.

The study is published online in the Journal of Autism and Developmental Disorders.

“The current costs of ASD are more than double the combined costs of stroke and hypertension and on a par with the costs of diabetes,” said study senior author Paul Leigh, professor of public health sciences and researcher with the Center for Healthcare Policy and Research at UC Davis. “There should be at least as much public, research and government attention to finding the causes and best treatments for ASD as there is for these other major diseases.”

Leigh hopes his findings inspire policy changes that emphasize early intervention to reduce ASD symptoms, along with employment and other programs that support the independence of adults with the disorder.

“This approach would ultimately save money that otherwise would be spent on expensive custodial care,” Leigh said.

Leigh worked with co-author Juan Du, who received her doctoral degree at UC Davis, to determine the per-person and then total costs of ASD using data on medical services, residential care, special education, in-home care, transportation, employment support and lost productivity. Their information came from a variety of sources, including research literature, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The evaluations included cost ranges that accounted for age, because services for people with ASD change throughout their lifespans, and the presence or lack of intellectual disability (formerly called “mental retardation”), which affects the intensity of services, along with varied estimates of population changes and ASD prevalence.

The team found that the comprehensive costs of ASD will range from $162 to $367 billion for 2015 (with the researchers’ best estimate of $268 billion) and from $276 to $1 trillion (with the researchers’ best estimate of $461 billion) for 2025. The 2015 figures are on a par with recent cost estimates for diabetes and exceed the combined costs of stroke and hypertension. If the prevalence of ASD continues to grow as it has in recent years, the costs likely will far exceed those of diabetes by 2025.

To reduce these multi-billion dollar totals, Leigh and Du recommend a research investment in ASD equal to that for diabetes, which is funded by the National Institutes of Health at more than five times the level of research on ASD.

“The staggering costs identified in this study should serve as a call to action,” said Leonard Abbeduto, director of the UC Davis MIND Institute, an internationally recognized autism treatment and research center.

“We need more funding for research to understand the causes of, and develop treatments for, ASD,” Abbeduto added. “We also need to ensure that all children have access to intensive early intervention; that school-based interventions to support academics, as well as social and language skills, are adequately funded; and that supports are put in place to ensure better post-secondary and vocational options for adults. Investing in these areas, I believe, will actually reduce the costs to society.”

Leigh and Du’s study, “Brief Report: Forecasting the Economic Burden of Autism in 2015 and 2025 in the United States,” is available online at http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26183723. The research was funded by Autism Speaks and the National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health (grant number U54OH007550).

Information about NIH research funding levels is at http://report.nih.gov/categorical_spending.aspx

More information about UC Davis Health System and its Center for Healthcare Policy and Research, Department of Public Health Sciences and MIND Institute is at www.ucdmc.udavis.edu/healthsystem.

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Link from: http://www.ageofautism.com/2015/11/book-review-the-mess-they-made-the-gates-foundation-and-the-price-of-philanthropy.html

[hollysmom]

1. I often wonder if autism is increasing equally the world over

but then diagnosis would not be the same world over.

[HuckleB]

4. This covers it well.

https://www.sciencebasedmedicine.org/autism-prevalence-unchanged-in-20-years/

[proverbialwisdom]

9. Put autism aside for a moment & examine surveys on the health of American children by these sources.

The US infant mortality rate is 56th in the developed world in 2014.

SOURCE: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2091rank.html

The CDC reported in 2011 that 1 in 6 children in the US had a developmental disability.

SOURCE: http://pediatrics.aappublications.org/content/early/2011/05/19/peds.2010-2989.abstract

More than half of American children suffer from chronic ill-health.

SOURCE: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1876285910002500

RELATED: http://het.sagepub.com/content/early/2011/05/04/0960327111407644.full.pdf+html

Same as it always was? Same as it ALWAYS was? Absolutely not.

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Steven Novella • a year ago

No, we cannot rule out environmental influences. Genes interact with the environment. Many complex neurological disorders are caused by some interaction of genetics and environment.

Incidentally, 1988 is considered the inflection point in autism population changes, so to overlook that time period (and earlier) is conveniently misleading.
Top links via John Stone, UK editor AOA.

[HuckleB]

15. No one is buying your anti-vax conspiracies.

Why are you still here?

[jeff47]

5. Nope.

Also, if you use the "old" criteria for Autism, the rate is unchanged.

The increase is entirely due to greater awareness and massively broadening the criteria.

I was really hoping the push to make "being shy" autistic would work. That would push it over 50% and we could start treating all the freaks that seek out social interaction.

[hollysmom]

6. I think they need to break it down, not all minds work alike

I think probably the most common issue is ADHD - My nephew was diagnosed with that years ago, didn't need special classes, but got special training in organization and that turned him from a bad student to a good student. Years later a doctor recognized a pattern in what I was saying and in my late 50's she wanted to send me for testing because she felt I either had Asbergers or ADHD, I told her ADHD was probably it. But I had lived so long and had a successful career, with bumps along the road, so why bother now? And now I am retired and still have the same issues. I think a lot of people have the same problems, the issue is to not package children and send them through the same program but to give x much of special instruction to them. My nephew was taught to make lists in the morning, I had a boss that looked at my disorganization early in my career and had me make a list every morning, a habit I continued long after wards. Different people need different help and I don't think schools have to be so specialized, but a little personalization would help. I am for mainstreaming the kids you can, but to give a little individual help to everyone.

[proverbialwisdom]

7. In NJ "80 to 85 percent of the children in the (CDC) study had the most severe form of autism."

More: http://www.democraticunderground.com/101697149 post #6

[hollysmom]

8. I aqccept there are issues and not everyone can be mainstreamed, but I knew people when I was younge

that were defined by their parents as "retarded" I never knew exactly the diagnosis because I was too young, but as an adult met a parent with 2 children diagnosed with autism that were reacting pretty much like my parent's friends children. So, to figure this out, are other classifications getting lower? are people shifting or are there really more people who are having problems? I am not going to be the one to investigate this process, but I was just saying some things lesser effecting things do not need entire schools dedicated to them, but could be mainstreamed, some issues do need schools dedicated to them.
Although I hear a lot more about autism in the news, I talk to many parents about it when I do charity fundraising for a charity that does work with autistic children among others and have not found more parents over the last 10 years. But it is not a scientific study, I am not a scientist, I will ask the professionals who wander in this year to see what they are seeing, but will never claim to be an expert. I will have to read the article in that discussion later , have to run out now

[Dr Hobbitstein]

2. More anti-vaxxer autism conspiracy bullshit.

You really should stop reading Age Of Autism. It's nothing but bullshit that is in NO way supported by science. Autism rates aren't rising, DIAGNOSIS is (and of course the classification change 2 years ago). The rate is relatively unchanged for the past 50 years.

I must ask, do you have a child with autism or are you yourself autistic? If your answer is "no", then please refrain from posting this bullshit. It's insulting to us that have children with autism (or are autistic ourselves) having this anti-science bullshit spewed on a liberal, pro-science site.

[Demeter]

11. There is nothing in this article about vaccines, nor is it anti-science

And diagnosis changed because the existence of autism was suppressed by one shrink's search for personal glory and his own disease to be named after him for 40 years...see Kanner, Asperger, and Wong (she rediscovered Asperger's results circa 1980).

Autism is a genetic abnormality with multiple forms of genetic error producing a spectrum of disorders. When women gained equality in educational opportunities, they started meeting men of similar mind/gene configurations, and the resulting incidence of autism started to raise concern, because educated and well-paid parents were producing such problematic children.

[HuckleB]

16. You are pushing conspiratorial nonsense.

Cut the crap.

[Dr Hobbitstein]

14. Age Of Autism is an anti-vax site.

The OP is also an anti-vaxxer and regularly posts stuff from said site.

[missingthebigdog]

3. The way autism is addressed is a huge problem.

Autism intervention is primarily left up to the school system, and school districts are notoriously resistant to providing the services. As a result, we have large numbers of young adults with autism who age out of the school system with little or no preparation for adult life. Adult services are in short supply, and aren't really designed for the needs of these young people.

[Demeter]

10. The article is correct about the cost

but it's extremely optimistic about treatment, intervention, and accommodation.

My autistic spectrum child is 32. She will never be able to support or care for herself (and needs daily supervision for safety and health). And her case is a mild one, with as much intervention as I could scrabble up.

Medication helps to a limited extent, but must be supervised, because these are psychotropic drugs and cannot not be messed up.

The Adult Foster Care System in Michigan is totally resistant to the idea that supervision (even the lightest) is a 24 hour, 7 day a week necessity. They dump everyone out on the street after breakfast. Then the supervisors go home, leaving an open phone line after 10 pm. An open phone line! It is a travesty, waiting for a disaster.

[proverbialwisdom]

13. Thank you for your informed comment. I'll delete my post to you upthread if you want. (nt)