Plunge in Consumer Confidence Exposes Risk for U.S. Economy

[Purveyor]

by Erin Roman
July 28, 2015 — 12:04 PM EDT

Americans are growing concerned that this is about as good as it gets.

Consumer confidence slumped in July by the most in almost four years as households became less upbeat about the outlook for the economy, employment and their finances, figures from the New York-based Conference Board showed Tuesday.

Swings in stock prices stemming from the Greek financial crisis and weakness in China took a toll, according to the group, showing why Federal Reserve policy makers may want to consider international events in determining when to raise interest rates. Outsized moves in confidence have been common this year, underscoring erratic consumer temperament that poses a risk to already uneven household spending.

“It’s a bit of a surprise and may prove a little erratic,” said David Sloan, senior economist at 4Cast Inc. in New York. “If the stock market weakness recently extends further, a turnaround might be harder. But energy prices have slipped and that could give some support to consumers.”

The Conference Board’s index retreated to 90.9 this month from a revised 99.8 in June. The July reading, the weakest in 10 months, was lower than the most pessimistic forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists.

The 8.9 point drop also marked the biggest negative surprise since February 2003. The median forecast was 100, with estimates ranging from 97 to 103 after a previously reported 101.4 in June. The gauge has moved at least five points in five of the first seven months of the year.

more...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-28/plunge-in-consumer-confidence-exposes-risk-for-u-s-economy

[daybranch]

1. The people are recognizing the reality

that Hillary is more conservative than Obama has turned out to be, He was never a Progressive by training or temperament but we acted like he was and pushed him and as he said make me do it, This push of progressives have provided protections against his rich donors and the oligarchy. Now that he better understands their oppression of the people and destruction of the environment and no longer needs their money for a campaign he lets his natural intelligence and his heart lead him in a progressive direction, but still shows a willingness to abandon the common man for the TPP and the rich who want it so bad.
We chose him because he is a lot better than Hillary. In this election if we vote in the primaries, we can vote for candidates who are real progressives Bernie or O'Malley and on the side of the people.

[Igel]

2. This was silly a decade ago.

It continues to be silly.

I keep expecting to hear on the news, "This afternoon's poll of consumer confidence has dipped 3% from this morning's, presaging a deep recession by nightfall."

"Good news! The recession expected to have taken hold by this morning, given yesterday afternoon's dip in consumer confidence, has been avoided by brilliant economic moves while the US markets and banks were closed. Instead, consumer confidence at alarm-clock bell this morning was up 2% over yesterday morning's numbers, and this afternoon's unemployment numbers are expected to be the best since last Wednesday."

"Black Lunchtime! At the noon poll, consumer confidence had plunged by 15% when lettuce necessary for the noontime meal was recalled due to salmonella. The stock market lost 8% of its net worth by 12:10 on the news, unemployment has increased by 2.3%, and it's expected that by 2 pm the East Coast will be in depression."

"Six PM Update: In an earthshaking turnaround, the stock market posted its biggest gains since last Tuesday at 9:39 a.m., and the depression has been averted! It's expected that given the boom times ahead, the Social Security Trust Fund will have its effective life-time extended by 39.4423 seconds."

Perhaps soon we'll have polling results each and every 10 Planck times or so. Nah, that'll be called unrealistically long-term thinking.

[fasttense]

3. But, but, but, I just heard we are in a recovery

I head that all the economic indicators were all positive - the best in over 100 years. We have millions of well paying jobs and no unemployment. How can consumers be so distrusting of our thriving economy? Those silly people, don't they understand how wonderful our great recovery is?

One thing a con artist needs more than anything else to be successful is the confidence of the marks. That's why consumer confidence matters so much. Without it, the con is a failure.

[canoeist52]

4. Hopefully, Americans have discovered that shopping ain't all it's cracked up to be...

and have moved on to more rewarding hobbies.

Or big-box boycotts are working.

Or maybe materialism is done.

[greymattermom]

5. If you buy from Amazon

you just buy the thing you need. Sparkly stuff in stores doesn't attract you at all. It's all about decluttering these days.