CBO Contradicts Itself — Long-Term Budget Picture Improving, Not Worsening

[Bill USA]

http://www.cbpp.org/blog/cbo-contradicts-itself-long-term-budget-picture-improving-not-worsening

The Congressional Budget Office's (CBO) new report on the budget picture opens by saying, "The long-term outlook for the federal budget has worsened dramatically over the past several years," blaming the Great Recession and the steps taken to address it. But CBO's own data, in that very report, show that's not the case. The CBO data that allow an apples-to-apples comparison of its new projections with its earlier ones from before the recession show that the long-term budget picture has improved significantly, not worsened.

As the chart shows, projected federal debt as a percent of gross domestic product (GDP) under CBO's "alternative fiscal scenario" is lower in 2040 -- and, indeed, in every year from 2030 on -- than in any CBO projections since 2003. That's not surprising, given the significant amount of deficit reduction that policymakers have enacted since 2010 and the slowdown in health spending, as we discussed here.

To be sure, debt is still projected to rise, and the fiscal path still is ultimately unsustainable. Policymakers will have to take steps to stabilize or reduce projected debt ratios. But the challenge is less daunting than it was projected to be a few years ago, and it will require less dramatic policy changes to address it.


Long-Term Budget Outlook Has Improved


As we've noted, we regard CBO's "alternative fiscal scenario" as unduly pessimistic because it assumes the enactment of new and costly policies, such as immediately ending sequestration's budget cuts and permanently extending all of the "tax extenders" without offsetting any of those costs, that would increase long-term budget deficits significantly. But what matters here is that this scenario relies on a consistent set of assumptions, so one can compare projections made at different points in time. And they show a marked improvement in the long-term budget outlook.
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[pansypoo53219]

1. show the fucking 90's. show how the asshat put us here. hell, add reagan & GWHB.

[Human101948]

2. Are they using "dynamic scoring?"

That's a "trickle down" adjunct that the Republicans want to use to support their budget busting crackpot theories.