Muslim Europe: the demographic time bomb transforming our continent

[Renew Deal]

Lots of interesting numbers in this article from 2009:


Britain and the rest of the European Union are ignoring a demographic time bomb: a recent rush into the EU by migrants, including millions of Muslims, will change the continent beyond recognition over the next two decades, and almost no policy-makers are talking about it.

The numbers are startling. Only 3.2 per cent of Spain's population was foreign-born in 1998. In 2007 it was 13.4 per cent. Europe's Muslim population has more than doubled in the past 30 years and will have doubled again by 2015. In Brussels, the top seven baby boys' names recently were Mohamed, Adam, Rayan, Ayoub, Mehdi, Amine and Hamza.

Europe's low white birth rate, coupled with faster multiplying migrants, will change fundamentally what we take to mean by European culture and society. The altered population mix has far-reaching implications for education, housing, welfare, labour, the arts and everything in between. It could have a critical impact on foreign policy: a study was submitted to the US Air Force on how America's relationship with Europe might evolve. Yet EU officials admit that these issues are not receiving the attention they deserve.
<snip>

The study for the US Air Force by Leon Perkowski in 2006 found that there were at least 15 million Muslims in the EU, and possibly as many as 23 million. They are not uniformly distributed, of course. According to the US's Migration Policy Institute, residents of Muslim faith will account for more than 20 per cent of the EU population by 2050 but already do so in a number of cities. Whites will be in a minority in Birmingham by 2026, says Christopher Caldwell, an American journalist, and even sooner in Leicester. Another forecast holds that Muslims could outnumber non-Muslims in France and perhaps in all of western Europe by mid-century. Austria was 90 per cent Catholic in the 20th century but Islam could be the majority religion among Austrians aged under 15 by 2050, says Mr Caldwell.

Projected growth rates are a disputed area. Birth rates can be difficult to predict and migrant numbers can ebb and flow. But Karoly Lorant, a Hungarian economist who wrote a paper for the European Parliament, calculates that Muslims already make up 25 per cent of the population in Marseilles and Rotterdam, 20 per cent in Malmo, 15 per cent in Brussels and Birmingham and 10 per cent in London, Paris and Copenhagen.
<snip>

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/5994047/Muslim-Europe-the-demographic-time-bomb-transforming-our-continent.html

[Fred Sanders]

1. It is a "time bomb" because they are Muslims....??? A "demographic shift" makes for less splash.....

[NYC_SKP]

3. That is the title used by the author of the article, not the OP's editorializing.

Given that fact, I think it's acceptable for use here, even if an unfortunate way to say it.

I agree, I wish they hadn't used that metaphor.

[freshwest]

2. Birthrates determine power and always have. That's why women are under assault everywhere. Link pic:

Nothing surprising about the effect of demographics. It's why controlling women from birth until their childbearing years as always been a focus of religion and advertising. Both mentally and physically. One can consider that with pleasure or horror, it's just a fact of history.

[bemildred]

4. They like the cheap labor, they don't like the foreign people who provide it.

Naturally, this doesn't work out well in the long run.

[reorg]

5. what's also interesting is to check out these numbers

and see what comes out.

The author thinks it's "startling" that

'Only 3.2 per cent of Spain's population was foreign-born in 1998. In 2007 it was 13.4 per cent.'

The numbers at Wiki differ slightly: 1.8 percent in 98 and 10 percent in 07. Since then, the percentage went slightly up and slightly down again, in 2014 the number was 10.1 percent.

These immigrants mainly came from other European countries, following the opening of inner-European borders, many came from Spanish speaking former colonies, a significant percentage from neighbouring Morocco. Only the latter are Muslims.

17 February 2013 ... The number of Muslims in Spain has reached almost 1.6 million (1,595,221), of which 1.1 million are foreigners in opposition to the 464,978 Spanish Muslims, according to the exploitation of the census of the Muslims in Spain made by the Andalusian Observatory, the autonomous body of the Union of Islamic Communities of Spain (UCIDE). ...

Muslims represent about 3% of the total population of inhabitants.

30% of Muslims is Spanish while 70% are immigrants (50% Moroccans and 20% of other nationality).

http://www.euro-islam.info/2013/02/28/demographic-study-of-the-muslim-population-in-spain/

Having left out that part, the article in the OP then starts to speak about Muslims in Europe:

'Europe's Muslim population has more than doubled in the past 30 years and will have doubled again by 2015.'

Not sure what this is based on, but the PEW Research Center apparently disagrees: 'Europe's population was 6% Muslim in 2010, and is projected to be 8% Muslim by 2030.'

The projections are largely based on the fact that, currently, the birthrate among immigrants is slightly higher than the average of the native European populations. I see no reason to assume that this difference will remain for many generations.

[bemildred]

6. Good points.

We used to absorb boatloads of immigrants here (literally) all the time, and they have all integrated quite well, once we let them. As long as you have good jobs, some opportunity, it can work fine.