Sanctions, Low Oil Prices Make ‘Toxic Cocktail’ for Russia: Nuland

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WASHINGTON, December 18 (Sputnik) — The Russian economy is suffering from a lethal mix of US-imposed sanctions, falling fuel prices and oil dependency, US Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland said.

“But now we have a really toxic cocktail with the effect of sanctions, with low oil prices, with the impact finally being felt inside Russia of the economic mismanagement of the last ten to fifteen years, where the economy is so heavily hydro-carbon dependent,” Nuland said Wednesday during a discussion at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI).

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“With regard to the effect of sanctions, the market information that we are seeing from Russia today is a clear indication that the isolation that the Kremlin has brought, the pressure that the US and Europe and others have brought to bear on the Russian economy is having an effect,” she added.

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“It is a point of decision-making for the Russian leadership, but also the Russian people, whether this aggressive policy vis-a-vis neighbors is worth it. And whether this choice to prioritize imperial ambition over the needs of your own citizens, over their well-being, is really in the best interests of the Russian Federation,” Nuland said.

http://sputniknews.com/russia/20141218/1015963398.html

Comment: I don't usually post from Russian sources, they are just as bullshitty as ours, and being descended on by enraged harpies for being a Putin-lover is not worth the trouble. However the opportunity to quote Ms Nuland in her own words was too good to pass up. This sort of trite self-satisfied delusional babble is what passes for "thinking" in the upper reaches of our State Dept.

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1. Civilians Despair as Both Sides Break the Rules in East Ukraine

In the outskirts of Donetsk, close to the airport, where fierce fighting between Ukrainian forces and Russia-backed rebels has been ongoing for months, shelling has become a part of everyday life. Local residents refer to rolls of industrial plastic wrap as "glass panes" — having once replaced the glass in shattered windows only to see it destroyed in the next blast, they now resort to pulling plastic over the windows to keep them sealed "till better times."

Plastic wrap is even more in demand in the Luhansk region, where the damage to infrastructure in rebel-controlled territories is even more severe. When I visited the town of Pervomaisk a few weeks ago, the first question the self-proclaimed town administrator asked my colleagues and me was, "Have you brought any plastic wrap?" Apparently, they had mistaken us for long-awaited aid workers.

The scope of the disaster was shocking even to our experienced eyes. When a journalist headed in the same direction a few days later, I suggested that he bring some food or a few rolls of plastic wrap. Not because it was his job, but because he would feel awful arriving empty-handed.

Pervomaisk, 50 kilometers west of Luhansk, used to be a vibrant and densely populated town, with close to 39,000 residents, several industrial plants, over a dozen schools and a few colleges. Rebels took over the town this past spring and resolved not to relinquish it to Ukrainian forces, despite intense, deadly shelling that continued from late July through the end of August. Most residents fled early on, but some stayed behind, seeking safety in basements. Many died when they ventured outside for food or water — how many, no one knows for sure. People buried family members in yards for lack of other options.

http://www.hrw.org/news/2014/12/24/civilians-despair-both-sides-break-rules-east-ukraine

Merry Christmas.

[Igel]

4. Yes.

Less even-handed sources are sometimes a bit more useful.

The rebels shell because the Ukrainian forces haven't pulled back, even as they say they want to "regain" their borders--the administrative borders of the Donets'k and Luhans'k oblasts. (Which are, of course, borders they never actually extended to.) Their press releases seldom claim to have been fired on first. In fact, sometimes it's hard to tell there's any actual fighting. That depends on who's doing the firing--Cossacks, LNR/DNR, Russian-majority groups, or some of the less "governmental" units like the Orthodox Army, the Chechens, or warlord-controlled forces like Motorola's. Official sources until recently were proud of attacks on territory they claimed should have been turned over to them, like the airport in Donets'k, and even now claim that the rail bridge downed near Mariupol was struck by "partisans"--after claiming for months that they'd be waging a partisan war to drive back the fascists. (They're fantasizing about WWII, of course, but that's not exactly a stunning insight.)

The Ukrainian side is usually fairly clear. Don't shoot and don't advance and they won't shoot. Even groups like Azov tend to not be uppity. There's enough grassroots press as a result of the Maidan that every incident gets reported somewhere--UNN, UNIAN, or sources like Hromadske.

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5. Civil wars are never pretty. nt

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6. And I have a low opinion of any political leaders who are eager to start one.

I have a low opinion of Putin for making that Novi Rossiya comment, and I have a low opinion of Yats and the gang for thinking they could conquer the East against Russian opposition. And I'll bet they both regret it now, but Yats and the gang are going to regret it a lot more than Putin before this mess is done. Putin got Crimea. He's quick on his feet, you better not forget that. Yats and the gang got bankruptcy and a civil war. Their only hope is to drag the EU/USA/NATO in deeper, and Ukraine deeper in debt, and they will be looking for the exit when the shit goes down. And I don't think much of Merkel either. She's going to regret it too. Everybody loses. What a deal. Good job.

[jakeXT]

11. I think it always comes back to the Wolfowitz doctrine

With Russia and Germany out .. that only leaves China as a road block

U.S. Strategy Plan Calls for Insuring No Rivals Develop
A One-Superpower World

WASHINGTON, March 7 – In a broad new policy statement that is in its final drafting phase, the Defense Department asserts that America’s political and military mission in the post-cold-war era will be to ensure that no rival superpower is allowed to emerge in Western Europe, Asia or the territories of the former Soviet Union.

A 46-page document that has been circulating at the highest levels of the Pentagon for weeks, and which Defense Secretary Dick Cheney expects to release later this month, states that part of the American mission will be “convincing potential competitors that they need not aspire to a greater role or pursue a more aggressive posture to protect their legitimate interests.”

The classified document makes the case for a world dominated by one superpower whose position can be perpetuated by constructive behavior and sufficient military might to deter any nation or group of nations from challenging American primacy.

Rejecting Collective Approach

To perpetuate this role, the United States “must sufficiently account for the interests of the advanced industrial nations to discourage them from challenging our leadership or seeking to overturn the established political and economic order,” the document states.

http://work.colum.edu/~amiller/wolfowitz1992.htm

Friedman further says that “The Russian authorities can not tolerate a situation in which western armed forces will be [in Ukraine] a hundred kilometers from Kursk or Voronezh [in Russia]”, and that the goal of the U.S. is to “maintain the balance of power in Europe, helping the weaker party,” which he says is Europe. He furthermore says, “The United States considers the most dangerous potential alliance to be between Russia and Germany. This would be an alliance of German technology and capital with Russian natural and human resources.” So: the U.S. is trying to antagonize Germans against Russia. This will weaken both of them. However, that would be not a “balance of power” but an increasing imbalance of power in favor of the United States. The Russian interviewer failed to catch his inconsistency on that.

http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2014/12/head-stratfor-private-cia-says-overthrow-yanukovych-blatant-coup-history.html

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12. They need to do more feasibility studies.

It's infantile, it's moronic, it's crude, I don't have enough insults for that drivel. It's little boys playing in a tree fort, but with nuclear weapons. We'll just control everything forever, we will.

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2. Ukraine contact group to meet, restart peace talks

Peace talks between Ukraine and pro-Russian rebels are to resume Wednesday in Minsk, the capital of Belarus. Envoys from Russia and the Organization of Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) will also be present at the meeting, which is scheduled to begin at 1500 hours (1200 GMT).

Diplomats gathering in Minsk will discuss a lasting ceasefire, withdrawing heavy arms and exchange of prisoners, the OSCE said. The peace talks will also include negotiations on providing humanitarian aid to eastern Ukraine, which is being controlled by pro-Russian rebels.

Russia and the rebels are also demanding an end to the economic embargo in Donbass, the capital of the breakaway territory under rebel control.

The countries agreed to meet in Minsk after a telephone conference between German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Francois Hollande, Russia's president Vladimir Putin and Ukraine's Petro Poroshenko on Monday.

http://www.dw.de/ukraine-contact-group-to-meet-restart-peace-talks/a-18150019?maca=en-rss-en-eu-2092-rdf

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3. Ukraine: Is it time to buy?

Ukraine's bonds have had a terrible year as the country's conflict with Russia wears on, but could be a canny buy in 2015, some experts say.

"Ukraine looks relatively attractive, even the longer-dated bonds… We expect the official sector to continue to support Ukraine in the near-term," said Stuart Culverhouse and Jakob Christensen, economists at Exotix Fixed Research, in a report on Tuesday.

Ukraine has been teetering on the edge of default following the overthrow of its president earlier this year, the secession of Crimea and subsequent civil war involving Russian-backed rebels. The price of its sovereign bonds have declined around 18 percent this year in the JPMorgan Emerging Markets Bond Global Diversified Index, making Ukraine the worst performer bar Venezuela, according to Exotix.

Ukraine has signed a $17 billion loan deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), but could need another $15 billion to stay afloat, with a bond repayment looming in March.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102293900

[jakeXT]

7. Obama: Putin is no chess master

...

"There was a spate of stories about how he is the chess master and outmaneuvering the West and outmaneuvering Mr. Obama and this and that and the other. And right now, he's presiding over the collapse of his currency, a major financial crisis and a huge economic contraction," Obama said. "That doesn't sound like somebody who has rolled me or the United States of America."

Obama added that the U.S. has been "very firm" with countries that counter U.S. interests or violate international law.

He also rejected the "knee-jerk" foreign policy view that "shooting first and thinking about it second projects strength."

"I disagree with that," he said

...

http://edition.cnn.com/2014/12/21/politics/obama-putin-outmaneuvering/

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8. Well, he's right up to a point.

See post #6 for my views on that.

And I totally agree about not getting in a hurry about indulging in violence. It has consequences, you need to think them through.

[jakeXT]

9. I guess the Libya decision worked like it was supposed to /nt

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10. Hey, you don't want to talk, that's OK with me. nt