Oil Falls to 5-Year Low as Supply Glut Seen Lingering

[Purveyor]

Source: Bloomberg

By Mark Shenk Dec 29, 2014 12:43 PM ET

Oil fell to the lowest level in more than five years amid speculation that a global supply glut that’s driven crude into a bear market will continue through the first half of 2015.

West Texas Intermediate dropped as much as 2.2 percent, erasing an earlier gain. Fires have been extinguished at three of six tanks at Es Sider, Libya’s largest oil port, which were set ablaze after an attack by militants, said National Oil Corp. spokesman Mohamed Elharari. Algerian Energy Minister Youcef Yousfi called on OPEC to cut output to boost prices, the Associated Press reported.

Futures plunged 46 percent this year, set for the biggest annual drop since 2008, as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries resisted supply cuts to defend market share in response to the highest U.S. output in three decades. Libya pumped 580,000 barrels a day in November, down from about 1.59 million at the end of 2010, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Trading was below average amid Christmas and New Year holidays.

“We’re looking at a significant supply-demand surplus through the first half of 2015,” Tim Evans, an energy analyst at Citi Futures Perspective in New York, said by phone. “The problems in Libya and any reduction in the growth of U.S. production will only help limit the surplus, but it’s not going away anytime soon.”

Read more: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-29/oil-climbs-as-libyan-output-threatened-by-fire-at-storage-tanks.html

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Local mid-michigan gas price this morning: $1.93

Could it go below $1.00 (I was laughed at when I said it would go below $2)? Don't think quite that far but under $1.50 is more than possible.

[FBaggins]

1. It was barely a year ago...

... that I was involved in two threads that claimed that we would never see prices below $3/gal again.

One was based on http://consumerist.com/2013/09/17/you-will-probably-never-pay-less-than-3-for-a-gallon-of-gas-ever-again/

[AZ Progressive]

2. People don't know what they don't know

That's why you can't take what people say very seriously when they make blanket assertions.

[bananas]

14. I spent a lot of time debunking the "Peak Oil" and "Nuclear Renaissance" scams.

Unfortunately there are still a lot of true believers.

[FBaggins]

15. So you're batting .500?

That's not so bad.

[bananas]

22. No, I'm batting a thousand - but I'm glad you're not batting zero anymore.

Last edited Tue Dec 30, 2014, 05:10 PM - Edit history (3)

You fell for both the "Peak Oil" and "Nuclear Renaissance" scams.

I remember when you thought I was "insulting Hubbert" when I pointed out that nuclear peaked in 2006.

You were unaware that Hubbert became strongly anti-nuclear and pro-solar, and called for a nuclear phase-out, and a transition to solar.

And nuclear did peak in 2006 - that's a fact.

References:

Here's where you thought I was insulting Hubbert:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=115x246204

bananas Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-08-10 08:47 AM
Original message

Worldwide nuclear energy diminishing; "Peak nuclear energy" was in 2006

<snip>

[hr]
FBaggins Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-09-10 10:27 AM
Response to Reply #17

25. It's also an insult to Hubbert.

He included predictions for nuclear energy in the future... And there was no "peak" anywhere in the next many decades.

To look at any point on a graph where the slope turns negative and see a "peak" is just laughably ignorant.
just

This post shows how strongly anti-nuclear Hubbert became - he wanted a nuclear phase-out - which means it would peak and go to zero:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=115x261119

bananas Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-12-10 08:53 AM
Original message

Peak Oil founder M. King Hubbert became anti-nuclear and pro-solar

A lot of people are familiar with Hubbert because of his work on peak oil.
You might have seen this chart:

<snip>

Because of that, a lot of people think Hubbert advocated nuclear energy to replace oil.
He did - way back in the 1950's - but he later became very anti-nuclear and pro-solar.

He favored a nuclear phase-out: "the sooner we get rid of it the better off we’re going to be. I would never recommend shutting all the plants down tomorrow, but certainly phasing them out."

He was very pro-solar: "We could make the transition in a matter of decades if we begin now."

<snip>

And nuclear did peak in 2006:

http://www.worldnuclearreport.org/WNISR2014.html

Report 2014: Executive Summary
Tuesday 29 July 2014

<snip>





<snip>

[FBaggins]

26. I find it incredibly entertaining that you've been holding on to that thread for so long

You seriously look back at that thread and still think that you were right at the time?

Try it one more time. Actually read it this time.

[Plucketeer]

3. I genuinely hope to hell

that the ASS HATS who've been getting rich by betting on oil (Commodities) are losing their SHIRTS in this melt-down. Long live OPEC!

[cosmicone]

4. They'll ask for a bailout after their bets crash

and will probably get a bailout funded by all of us.

The asshats operate under a different rule of "all profits are private but all losses are public."

[SammyWinstonJack]

5. BAILOUT! Bet on it. Wonder how well that will be received by Main st.?

[obxhead]

6. Those asshats will be us.

They will get a bailout and we'll be paying for it.

[BumRushDaShow]

7. I just paid $2.79 today

here in the Philly area. Am glad it is still < $3.

[IthinkThereforeIAM]

8. Down to $1.96 for low octane...

... I put 91 octane in my Bonneville at Costco for $2.22 last week, here in Sioux Falls, SD.

We have a gas supplier out of Brookings, SD, Harms Oil, that was selling 85 or lower octane fuel as 87 octane, got busted, not so much as a slap on the wrist to the guy, so I stay away from the low octane fuel, as you cannot trust the suppliers around here. 85 octane or below voids vehicle warranties.

[SteveG]

9. here in Bethany Beach, DE it's $2.45

[FBaggins]

11. The Philly area has widely variable pricing

You can easily find a 20 cent difference just down the street from each other...

and if you're willing to run to Camden, you can get it under $2.20

[BumRushDaShow]

13. Several miles from where I gassed up

there were a couple stations @$2.65. Stations closer to downtown have been running $2.89.

The problem with going to Camden has been the $5.00 toll going across the bridges. Basically you achieve no savings trying the Jersey option (unless the person works in Jersey and can fill up before going back home to PA).

[RoverSuswade]

10. $1.88 in northern Indiana.

I do a double-take every time I look at a gas station marquee.

[Fearless]

12. It's happened but why it's happening is most important

Directly it is because OPEC won't cut output (supply and demand, etc.) The bigger issue is WHY is demand down? Is the world economy slowing or is it because of the influx of the environmentally disastrous oil shale fracking flooding the market with unneeded oil? Regardless, there is a reason OPEC is not lowering output. Lowering prices makes competition in fracking less economically feasible and slows or eliminates competition from Russia, Canada, and the US.

[Sunlei]

17. Canada meets their domestic need first and exports the excess. The USA should do the same.

Makes the 'for profit' Corps unhappy but it is better for regular Americans to pay less for gasoline.

IMO that should go for all major domestic produced items like beef grazed on OUR cheap public lands, majority is for export, also subsidized.

USA produced and subsidized dairy products and much dairy is for export.

[Sunlei]

16. How large were the Alaska oil checks this year? every man, woman & child gets a yearly check.

Usually about $1,000.00 or so, perhaps this year the check will be $2.00.

[FBaggins]

18. That's not how the Permanent Fund works

Their check isn't based on this year's profits from current oil extraction.

Instead, decades of profits have been placed into an investment trust and dividends are paid out based on a 5-year average of investment returns in the fund.

Since the awful 2009 year just dropped off that average, last year's $900 check was just more than doubled for this year to $1,900.

[Sunlei]

19. wowa $1,900 check this year, I wish all States were equal. With global warming it may 'pay' to

retire in Alaska

Or if you have a large family and don't mind hunting for food

[FBaggins]

20. That ain't the half of it.

No state income tax... no state sales tax (though some municipalities have one)... comparatively low property taxes (in the areas that charge one at all), and the first $150k of value is exempt for those 65 and older.

[Sunlei]

21. Thanks, that is food for thought :)

[FrodosPet]

23. $1.76 at Valero on Telegraph south of Joy Rd

If anyone in MI goes below $1.00, they will be the first.

[FiveGoodMen]

24. Unless you run on diesel

Then: screwed like always.

[Purveyor]

25. I'm not getting the high diesel price. Damn near double the price of gasoline

around here.

[onenote]

27. a number of factors keep diesel prices higher than gas

One minor one is that the tax on diesel is higher than the tax on regular gasoline.

The other is that demand for gas has been dropping but demand for diesel increasing. The reasons for the dropping demand for gasoline are both structural (more fuel efficient vehicles) and seasonal (less driving in fall and winter than in summer). The reasons for increasing demand for diesel also are structural and seasonal (improving economy results in more use of trucks and heavy machinery that use diesel, particularly in harvest season and in run-up to holiday sales. Also, diesel and heating fuel are related products and demand for heating fuel increases as demand for heating oil increases.

It sucks nonetheless