Taliban Brings War to Afghan Capital, Threatening Stability and Endangering Foreigners

[Comrade Grumpy]

Source: Washington Post

KABUL — Taliban insurgents have intensified their attacks on this besieged capital with a flurry of brazen bombings and afternoon raids targeting foreigners and Afghans, bringing the war into this city in a way not seen in any other year since the radical Islamists were ousted from power.

The latest assault occurred Saturday, when three militants clutching guns and grenades, including one who wore an explosives-packed vest, stormed a compound inhabited by foreigners in the middle-class Karte-e-Saay enclave. In a frenzy of explosions and gunfire, two foreigners were killed and seven were taken prisoner, said Deputy Interior Minister Mohammad Ayub Salangi. All of the attackers died in clashes with Afghan security forces, and the hostages were eventually freed.

On Sunday, authorities raised the death toll to three foreigners — a South African aid worker and his two children — and an Afghan. And Kabul’s police chief, Gen. Mohammed Zahir, abruptly resigned amid the rising insecurity.

The dramatic increase in violence in Kabul, arguably the most heavily defended city in the nation, indicates the resilience of the Taliban, despite pronouncements by Afghan, U.S. and NATO officials that the insurgency has been weakened. As the annual fighting season nears an end in rugged, increasingly snow-covered mountain areas, the capital has become the new focal point of the conflict.

“The city is now the front line of the war,” wrote Esmatullah Kohsar, an Afghan journalist, in a tweet Saturday, noting that there had been 12 or 13 blasts in the past two weeks in Kabul.

<snip>

Read more: http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/in-afghanistan-taliban-fighters-attack-foreign-compound-in-capital/2014/11/29/f0aef902-77d4-11e4-a755-e32227229e7b_story.html

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Fourteen years of US occupation, and the Taliban is at the gates?

This a lengthy article and worth the read. Kinda depressing, though.

[Yupster]

1. Last time the Taliban took Kabul

they castrated and then hanged the pro-Soviet leader who the Russians abandoned.

Hopefully we will bring the Afghans who helped us out before they are also tortured and killed.

[happyslug]

4. What is your source for that statement? The last pro Soviet Leader of Aghanistan lost power in 1992

Now the last leader of the Pro Soviet Afghan Government (Najibullah) WAS CASTRATED AND EXECUTED in 1996 as the Taliban took power, but he had lost power in 1992. Between 1992 and 1996 the various war lords fought over who was to rule what. This infighting became known as the "Battle of Kabul".

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Kabul_%281992%E2%80%9396%29

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohammad_Najibullah#Final_years_and_death

Out of the confusion of the Battle of Kabul, rose the Taliban, who proceeded to defeat all of the War Lords one by one till they took Kabul. The Taliban had been successful in areas with Pashtun Majority, but they main enemies till the US Invasion was the Uzbeks, Turkmen and Tajiks (Uzbeks and Turkmen speak variations of Turkic, the Tajik speak a variation of Iranian) of the "Northern Alliance" (All allied with Russia, China and India for support) and the Hazara (Allied with Iran and who speak an Iranian Language like the Almak and Pashtun, but the Hazara are Shiites, most other people of Afghanistan are Sunni Moslems) along the Iranian border.



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethnic_groups_in_Afghanistan

Pashtan, speak a variation of Iranian known as Pashto, they are the heart and soul of the Taliban, they make up somewhere between 40-60% of the population, the exact number is unknown for no census has been taken in decades.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pashtun_people


Now, the last leader of the pro Soviet Afghan Government (Najibullah) was a Pashtun, like the Taliban. In 1996, four years AFTER he had lost power, Najibullah thought the Taliban would spare him as the Taliban took Kabul, for he was a fellow Pashtun. The Taliban took the position the Najibullah had been a traitor since he did not support the Taliban, given that the Taliban were almost 100% Pashtun, Najibullah was viewed as a traitor to his tribe (The Pashtun) and thus also a traitor to Afghanistan.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethnic_groups_in_Afghanistan

Thus, yes the Taliban did execute and castrate the last pro Soviet Ruler of Afghanistan, but four years AFTER he had lost power. The Russians did not abandon him, the Soviet Union had agreed to leave and left. The Soviet Union continued to provide supplies to the pro Soviet Government till the Soviet Union dissolved on December 26, 1991. By April 1992, with the Soviet Union no longer in existence, they was no one to support anyone in Afghanistan.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dissolution_of_the_Soviet_Union

Now, by the end of 1992, the Russian Federation realized it had to do something about Afghanistan. Afghanistan borders three members of the Commonwealth of Independent States, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. All three had radical Islamic Fundamentalist operating in those countries who were and are allied with the Taliban. Given this situation Russia had to so something. The Soviet Union was no more, but most of the newly independent countries of the Former Soviet Union, outside of Europe, looked to Russia for leadership.All of those "Former Soviet Socialist Republics" have been more or less united since Genghis Khan. They might fight among themselves, but also looked at each other for support against any common enemy. Russia was NOT looked as a common enemy but the strongest of these "Brothers". Russia had replaced the Golden Horde in this function in 1502, when the Golden Horde (the last of Genghis Khan's successor States), finally collapsed. The Russian Empire did not officially take over those Central Asia States till the late 1800s, but did view them as under their influence from at last 1502 onward.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commonwealth_of_Independent_States

Thus Russia had to do SOMETHING about Afghanistan, even through Russia had no shared border with Afghanistan (Unlike the Soviet Union which has shared a long border with Afghanistan).

What Russia did was support the those leaders which oppose the Taliban who were NOT Pashtun (Tajik and Uzbeks with some Turkmen) . Technically the government of what was called the "Northern Alliance" was still the Government recognized by the UN, even through something like 90% of the people of Afghanistan were under the rule of the Taliban.

This was lead by the Tajik leader Ahmad Shah Massoud:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ahmad_Shah_Massoud

Now, Russia stabilized the situation and the Taliban offensive stalled but with the Taliban in charge of most of Afghanistan:



Now, with 9/11, the US Invaded Afghanistan. Somehow the Northern Alliance was able to launch a full scale tank assault on Kabul, as the US forces was invading from the Air. The official explanation was the US assault was so great that the Northern Alliance could move with its existing forces to Kabul.

An alternative theory is the US rented a Russian (maybe Uzbekistan or Tajikistan) armored Division, that did the assault (I lean to the renting of a Russia Division, the Russians of 2001 were NOT the Soviet Red Army of 1985, the height of Soviet Armed Forces, but more then sufficient improvement since the Russian debacle in Chechnya in 1995 as seen in the Russia Army success in 1999 when they invaded Chechnya for a second time):

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chechen%E2%80%93Russian_conflict

Now, I suspect the Russians rented out an Armor Division, it was for only a month and had to be withdrawn once Kabul was taken. Russian was glad to help the US take out the Taliban, but the occupation of Afghanistan was going to be a US Headache not a Russian Headache, thus the suspect use of a Russian Armor Division and its subsequent withdraw (and its absence in the years after the fall of Kabul).

Right now, the Taliban are on the March. Putin will have concerns about them, but Putin will draw the line at the Afghan border. The Taliban are under the influence of Saudi Arabia (where most of their financing is coming from) but being Pashtuns have little influence outside Afghanistan and Pakistan (Where the Pashtuns live). Thus that line can be held with low costs to Russia.

If Russia makes any moves into Afghanistan, it will be in the form of Punitive raids. i.e. attack and then withdraw. Tell the Taliban if they attack any member of the Commonwealth of Independent States, Russia is react. Any such attack will lead to a Russia attack. Putin will NOT occupy Afghanistan for that would take to many men and to much time (the Soviet Union Failed and the US is failing when it comes to occupying Afghanistan) and given the history of Afghanistan, Putin will avoid occupying any part of it. On the other hand Putin will NOT tolerate any attacks from Afghanistan on any former members of the Soviet Union.

Iran has concerned about Afghanistan, but among its fellow Shiites the Hazara. We will have to wait to see what happens, but I suspect Iran will do the same thing as Putin will do, defend its borders, do attacks when attacked but no occupation of Afghanistan.

Thus over a few years Afghanistan will return to the back water it was prior to the Soviet Invasion of 1979. News on a slow news day, but most of the time ignored.

[CJCRANE]

2. Fighting for our freedoms and to keep us safe.

[Turbineguy]

3. Perhaps there is a better alternative

to offer those who join the Taliban.