With Kobani on the Verge, Coalition Brass Will Weigh Ground Forces

[flamingdem]

Source: Foreign Policy

Military chiefs from more than 20 countries -- many already involved in the fight against the Islamic State and some who are considering joining the group -- will meet in Washington early next week to discuss progress on airstrikes in Iraq and Syria as well as plans to create a ground force to consolidate gains against the group. However, it might already be too late for the residents of Kobani, the Syrian town on the verge of falling into the Islamic State's hands.

The meeting will be hosted by Gen. Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, from Oct. 13 to 14, according to a U.S. military official who declined to name the countries sending representatives because many nations participating in the bombing don't want to publicly discuss their role. This is the first gathering of coalition military leaders, the official said. The coalition includes the United States, the U.K., France, Belgium, Denmark, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.

The gathering comes as the U.S.-led air campaign has carried out more than 350 strikes against the Islamic State, also known by the acronyms ISIS and ISIL -- for the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant -- since President Barack Obama first ordered military operations against the group Aug. 8. Obama's emissaries, retired Marine Corps Gen. John Allen and U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Brett McGurk, are in the region to drum up support for creating a ground force and are scheduled to return to Washington Friday.

While the strikes have blunted some advances by the group, the absence of a ground force to consolidate the gains and the lack of a clear strategy on what comes after airstrikes are hurting the coalition's effectiveness, according to Western officials involved in the coalition effort. That's a charge that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan repeated Tuesday after ISIL mounted a sustained attack on the Syrian town of Kobani across the Turkish border that is being defended by Kurdish Peshmerga forces. The city's fall would dramatically underscore that criticism.

"The terror will not be over ... unless we cooperate for a ground operation," Erdogan said in a televised speech in the eastern Turkish city of Gaziantep, according to Agence France-Presse, without indicating whether Turkey will participate in the anti-ISIL coalition. "Months have passed but no results have been achieved. Kobani is about to fall."

Read more: http://complex.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2014/10/07/with_kobani_on_the_verge_coalition_brass_will_weigh_ground_forces

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Allen and McGurk will be in Ankara Thursday and Friday to discuss the situation in Kobani. So the Kurds have got to hang in there another week looks like. Ouch.

[morningfog]

1. With Dempsey as host, recommendations of more US troops

will be forthcoming. Is now when they will concede US ground combat troops are necessary? I was expecting after Christmas.

[flamingdem]

2. I read some hawk editorials today about "advisors"

Obama must be under extreme pressure right about now. I wonder what his inner circle is doing about that.

[TwilightGardener]

3. "Months have passed but no results have been achieved"--well, that's not true.

It's been two whole months since the initial Yazidi/Mt. Sinjar deal that started airstrikes. For the first couple weeks, our airstrikes were defensive only in nature. They didn't become predominantly offensive/strategic in nature until after the beheadings, closer to September. It's really only been a few weeks that a coalition was formed. Turkey, however, wants to declare our actions a failure so that we dig in ever deeper, put in our own ground forces in Syria, and create the results they really want--getting rid of Assad. They've done nothing, spent no money, risked zero pilots' lives, and yet they criticize our efforts. That takes insane balls.

[flamingdem]

4. I guess they'll have to be pu$hed to act

Seems like Turkey responds to the almighty dollar if the amount is large enough. That plus as you say the Assad carrot.

[ballyhoo]

7. Yep. That's it. My best friend is

a Turk and he makes visits back and forth to Turkey 6-7 times a year. He says Erdoğan is a consummate POS and cares nothing about even the Turks let alone the Kurds. Turkey is playing a dangerous game. I was under the impression that Assad still had his air defenses, which were supposed to be formidable. We may be looking at a Black Swan event in the very near future.

[freshwest]

21. I answered before reading your comment. IMO, you nailed it.

[Mister Nightowl]

5. Here comes the Creep

[7962]

6. we need to be hitting them 50 times a day if we really want to make an impression.

5-6 airstrikes a day isnt going to stop anything these animals have planned.

[ballyhoo]

8. Just increase applicants to ISIS by 3600 a month.

[7962]

10. OK so dont bomb them at all. Then no applicants

[ballyhoo]

11. B52 them and then fewer people. If they keep playing around with

these 2, 3 and 4 kills with jets using high-price bombs, ISIS will have expanded greatly while the US will be pouring millions down the toilet.

[TwilightGardener]

9. It's just not that kind of situation, both in targeting (ground intelligence) and

in availability of targets. I've read people bitching about how the past gulf wars had thousands of airstrikes, but those were against government forces and militaries with plentiful targets out in the open--planes, tank columns, fuel tanks, weapons depots, bases, etc. This is a different type of action--terrorists who run and hide among civilians and put its vehicles under bridges. France and Great Britain have done sorties in Iraq with zero good targets identified.

[7962]

12. They've been in the middle of an open desert half the time.

Approaching this latest city is a wide open expanse of rolling hills. I'm afraid they're just trying to make it look like air power just wont do it so we HAVE to send in troops

[AnalystInParadise]

13. Actually

ISIS surrounds itself with civilians (women and children) in those convoys rolling through the desert. If we did more than surgical strikes then we kill LOTS of women and kids. That is why airstrikes are doomed to fail unfortunately. We will have to send in ground troops or leave it all alone, those are our choices.

[flamingdem]

15. Good point. The US knows that we cannot afford to be seen as blowing up civilians

because that's just a recruiting ad for Isis.

The idea is to give support while area forces step up. Not easy.

[quadrature]

14. why are ISIS towns off-limits to bombing? nt

[flamingdem]

16. As someone pointed out above - civilians

They can't go hog wild bombing Raqqa or Mosul because there are many innocents.

I think General Allen said it would take 1-2 years to free Mosul. They have to train and strategize. This looks to be a low intensity war. I think that they're already realizing though that this won't work. They need to up the game or Isis will be entrenched, and they'll use civilians as shields so forget about dislodging them.

[quadrature]

17. no need to go hog wild ...

look at a map.
there are 2 dams on the Euphrates, upstream
of Raqqah. 2 bombs turns Raqqah into Waterworld.

[flamingdem]

18. Yes but it kills civilians and means no water

for others in the area. And it's an aggression against the Syrian people as well as Isis who are ambivalent about US airstrikes. However I think it would be supported by many in Raqqa who dislike Isis.

[Calista241]

19. I feel like i've seen this movie before. n/t

[freshwest]

20. 'Erdogan charges', but won't commit troops? Who does he want to die instead?

Can't tell by his words whether he is pleased Kobane will fall into ISIL hands.

Note he's not part of the coalition, and seems to have done nothing to protect those people, even sending out troops to repell the refugees, because they are Kurds.

Guess this is the caliber of 'allies' in the region.

Insert *profanity* here.