Britain Unveils U.N. Containment Strategy for the Islamic State

[flamingdem]

Source: Foreign Policy

Britain hopes a diplomatic initiative it introduced in the U.N. Security Council on Friday will contain Islamic extremists in Iraq and Syria by curtailing their fundraising. The plan is to quash their illicit oil and gold exports, prevent ransom kidnappings, and hobble recruitment to stymie the establishment of an Islamic caliphate straddling the two Middle Eastern countries.

The U.N. diplomacy unfolded as the United States intervened militarily and humanitarianly in Iraq, launching airstrikes against the Islamic State and airdropping food and water to trapped religious minorities.

The resolution, which was drafted with input from Washington and Paris, demands that the Islamic State, al-Nusra Front, and other al Qaeda affiliates "cease all atrocities and terrorist activities," and urges states to "cooperate in efforts to find and bring to justice the perpetrators, organizers and sponsors of terrorist acts."
It does not, however, propose using force.

Instead, the draft seeks to build on existing financial and travel sanctions on individuals and entities involved in supporting or funding the activities of the Islamist militants. The proposal asks other governments to "suppress the flow of foreign terrorists" to the battlefield by sharing intelligence on homegrown extremists and tightening up their borders.



Read more: http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2014/08/08/exclusive_britain_unveils_un_containment_strategy_for_the_islamic_state

[Adsos Letter]

1. Unabashedly off-topic, but...

...who makes all of the black flags and banners these yahoos keep waving around in just about every video or still shot? China got the market cornered on that, too?

Not to detract from an extremely serious topic but that guy's stance just made me aware of how often these things show up.

Anywayyyy...Going after their material backing would be one element, although from what I've been led to understand, some of their serious financing is coming from sources we're not yet prepared to confront. I can't envision any scenario which brings an end to this thing that doesn't involve shooting a whole bunch of these guys somewhere along the way.

I readily admit that I lack vision. Maybe, at 59+ years, I've just become jaded by humanity's ability to inflict pain and suffering.

[cosmicone]

2. Their funding comes from Saudi Arabia and Qatar

Both countries' monarchies rule under the protection of the US. Call their ambassadors in and tell them in no uncertain terms that we'll make Ukraine out of them unless they stop funding the ISIS.

Then bomb the hell out of ISIS so that they will remain afraid of the sky till they die.

[happyslug]

3. Last Report, King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia is dieing.

In March an opposition group to the House of Saud said Abduallah had terminal lung cancer and six months to live.

http://www.presstv.ir/detail/2014/04/19/359233/saudi-king-may-die-in-6-months-report/

How much truth is in that report is unknown, but Abudullah is 90 years old.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abdullah_of_Saudi_Arabia#Crown_Prince

In a dictatorship like Saudi Arabia, death of the leader always lead to power struggles. She the following paper I did in July on this Subject:

http://metamorphosis.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1014&pid=839156

In simple terms, people in the House of Saud are jockeying for position within the power structure of the House of Saud., and some of that power structure is support for Moslems outside of Saudi Arabia (Support for the overthrow of the Moslem Brotherhood in Egypt appears to part of the struggle). The support for rebels in Syria and now Iraq is part of that struggle. i.e. the Wahhabi movement within Sunni Islam that the House of Saud embraced centuries ago and still support to the hilt. .

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wahhabi

Just a comment, that foreign wars are often part of the internal struggle within an dictatorship that is seeing the old dictator dying. Worse. all of the Kings of Saudi Arabia since the death of King Saud I have been sons of King Saud I, and now it is about time for the third generation to take over control of the country. Thus you are seeing a lot of maneuvering by various branches of the House of Saud to gather allies and to show they are the "Best" protectors of Islam and spreading Wahhabism. In my paper I discussed the similar situation in the Soviet Union in the 1980s, Stalin had died in 1953, and every ruler of the Soviet Union till Gorbachev had knew Stalin personally. Since the Soviet Union was NOT a hereditary dictatorship, the "Second Generation" were these men who had known Stalin. With Gorbachev you had the "Third Generation" coming into power, just like what is now happening in Saudi Arabia. Thus the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan is similar to the present support for rebels in Syria and Iraq, an attempt by the third generation that they support the movement they are part of. In the case of Afghanistan, to expand Communuism, in the support of the rebels of Syria and Iraq Wahhabism.

My comment this is a mess and will be a mess until whoever succeeds Abdullah is secure on the throne (Remember Gorbachev never was secure, and that insecurity lead to the attempted coup against Gorbachev, that ended up is dissolution of the Soviet Union).

Given that Saudi Arabia is still either the #1 or #2 producer of oil world wide, this is NOT a good sign. When the last #1 pr #2 producer of oil collapsed (the Soviet Union in 1989), the world had been in an oil glut since the early 1980s, and prices had fallen since their peak in 1979. The situation with oil today is different, the glut is long gone and we have a very tight world wide oil market. The recent increase in US oil production has NOT lead to a glut .

This lack of a glut had been do to reduced use of oil do to the recession (and high prices for oil), but also the decline in North Slope of Alaska oil, North Sea oil, Britain is now an oil importer and Mexican oil. These decline have been offset by US Mexico Gulf oil producing, Shale Oil from the US and increase Saudi Arabian Oil production. The problem is these increases have barely matched demand thus no glut and no drop in the price of oil.

Side note: Shale oil to be profitable the price of oil has to be over $80 a barrel or roughly just under $2 a gallon AT THE WELL HEAD, i.e BEFORE refining, distribution and even gasoline taxes. In simple terms if Gasoline prices drops below $3 a gallon, Shale oil become unprofitable and production comes to a halt which forces the prices back up do to the decline in oil production. Right now oil is holding at about $100 a barrel ($98.42 NASDAQ price when I wrote this paragraph):

http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/crude-oil.aspx

Given US oil from fracking is expected to increase till 2017 then decline (Some say 2014 then decline and they is evidence to support such a date for drilling of wells barely equals the closing of old wells in the shale oil fields) any problems with oil from Saudi Arabia will have a negative effect on oil supplies (and a huge increase in the price of gasoline).

Thus the US does not want to disturb the mess that Saudi Arabia is becoming, for the US will get hurt just by the increase in the price of oil.

[cosmicone]

4. The crown prince always becomes the king

So Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud will be the next king.

[happyslug]

5. So a 90 year old man is going to be succeeded by a 78 year old man....

Last edited Tue Aug 12, 2014, 06:24 PM - Edit history (3)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salman_bin_Abdulaziz_Al_Saud

Sorry, Salman bin Abdulaziz al Saud will be at best a interim ruler. He is also a son of King Saud I, and there are questions as to his ability to rule other then as a figure head (As King Fahd "Ruled" through then Crown Prince Abudullah after Faud's stroke of 1995 i.e then Crown Prince Abudullah ruled but Fahd was still technically "King&quot .

As to Salman's health:

"He had one stroke and despite physiotherapy, his left arm does not work as well as his right. After his appointment as Crown Prince various analysts including Simon Henderson argue that he is suffering from dementia. In addition, he is believed to be suffering from Alzheimer's disease."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salman_bin_Abdulaziz

The last Crown Prince, another son of King Saud I died in 2012:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nayef_bin_Abdulaziz

The Crown Prince before Nayef was his brother, Sultan bin Abdulazia al Saud, who died in 2009 and obtained the position when King Abdullah became King at the Death of King Faud:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sultan_bin_Abdul-Aziz_Al_Saud

King Fahd's, Nayef's, Salman's and Sultan's mother was Hessa Ahmad al Sudavri, she is the mother of the "Sudavri Seven" the single most powerful group of brothers within the house of Saud after the death of their Father King Saud I in 1953:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hessa_Ahmad_Al-Sudayri

The Seven Sudavri were (and are) the following (Four are still alive, and all seven have children in various positions within the Arabian Government). The grandsons of Hessa Ahmad al Sudavri are considered close. closer then King Saud's other grandchildren, but many have married granddaughters of other wives of King Saud I (Marring cousins, while unpopular in the West do to the Catholic Church opposition to such marriages in the Early, High and Late Middle Ages, is popular among Arabs).

King Fahd (1921–2005), the fifth monarch of Saudi Arabia (13 June 1982 - 1 August 2005), Crown Prince 1975-1982.
Sultan bin Abdulaziz (1928 – 2011) Crown Prince 2005-2010
Abdul Rahman bin Abdulaziz (born 1931)
Nayef bin Abdulaziz (1933 - 2012) Crown Prince 2010-2012
Turki bin Abdulaziz (born 1934)
Salman bin Abdulaziz (born 1935) Present Crown Prince.
Ahmed bin Abdulaziz (born 1942)

She also had four daughter, most if not all married cousins:
Luluwah bint Abdulaziz (c. 1928 - 2008)
Latifa bint Abdulaziz
Al Jawhara bint Abdulaziz
Jawaher bint Abdulaziz

As I said, the power struggle is going on, Abudullah is doing his best to both contain it AND make sure it does not blow up after he is dead, but only time will tell if what Abudullah is doing is enough.

Now, the Second YOUNGEST son of King Saud I, and the YOUNGEST LIVING SON of King Saud I (Born in 1945, so 65 years old), is Mugin bin Abdulaziz al Saud (Mugin son of Abduslaziz of the house of Saud). Abdulaziz is the given name for the person most reports call King Saud I. Magin was appointed on March 27, 2014 to be "Deputy Crown Prince". Maqin is considered an ally of King Abdullah, both Abdullah and Maqin have mothers who are NOT Hessa Ahmad al Sudavri and thus NOT a member of the Sudavri Seven.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muqrin_bin_Abdulaziz_Al_Saud

Line of succession to the Crown of Saudi Arabia:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Line_of_succession_to_the_Saudi_throne

Thew above list are the remaining sons of King Saud I, the real fight will be between the GRANDSONS not the sons of King Saud I. It is time for the Grandsons to take charge, and the present fighting reflects the internal politics that is going on among the Grandsons and Great Grandsons of King Saud I (and that they marry their cousins complicates the alliances among these descendants of King Saud I).

One last comment, when the Soviet Union was dissolving, a Joke going around the Soivet Union made i out to the West. The joke went this way:

An Optimist was teaching his son Russian, a Pessimist was teaching his son English, a realist was teaching his son how to operate an AK for use in the coming Civil War.

That joke reflected that many people in the Soviet Union had accepted that times would be rough and a Civil War was possible, but because they accepted that a Civil War was possible they all worked to avoid it. I have NOT heard a similar type of Joke out of Saudi Arabia. That means the idea of Civil War is NOT even on their Radar Screens. Which means when the crisis hits, they will NOT work together to avoid a Civil War but fall right into it. In the US prior to the US Civil War, you also have an absence of such jokes, again because no one wanted to see that a Civil War was possible and they needed to work together to avoid it. Just a comment that the House of Saud is headed for trouble. There is a possibility that it the infighting will NOT be violent, but if I was betting, I would bet on full scale Civil War.