Donetsk Separatist: Prepare for 'Several Hundred Thousand Refugees'

[bemildred]

Source: NBC/RIAN

MOSCOW – A voluntary evacuation of residents will begin from the embattled east Ukraine city of Dontesk, a pro-Russia separatist leader warned Thursday amid fresh fighting. A substantial number of people are already preparing to leave and railway and bus stations are busy, local media reported. "Russia needs to prepare for several hundred thousand refugees. Nearly all of them want to go to Russian Federation," the prime minister of the self-proclaimed separatist Donetsk republic, Alexander Borodai told Russian state news agency RIA Novosti.

Ukrainian government forces have recently gained the upper hand in the three-month conflict against separatists in the Russian-speaking eastern regions, and the military says it has a plan to deliver a "nasty surprise" to the heavily-armed separatists who have dug in at Donetsk after being pushed out of Slaviansk last weekend. There was heavy fighting Thursday between Ukrainian forces and the rebel fighters near Donetsk airport, according to the city’s mayor and the separatist commander, Igor Strekov.

Read more: http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ukraine-crisis/donetsk-separatist-prepare-several-hundred-thousand-refugees-n152731

[bemildred]

1. Ukraine and pro-Russian rebels square up for showdown

The Ukrainian authorities and pro-Russian rebels are squaring up for a final showdown in the east of the country, as Kiev aims to win back control of the key regional centres of Donetsk and Luhansk.

Rebel groups have gathered in the big cities after abandoning a number of smaller strongholds, now taken back by the Ukrainian army. Without Russian help they face almost certain defeat, but with civilian casualties inevitable if Ukrainian forces attempt to fight their way into the city centres, the Kremlin and some European leaders are calling for a resumption of a ceasefire in the troubled region.

On Wednesday evening, a convoy of more than 100 armoured personnel carriers, tanks and multiple rocket launchers was seen advancing towards the region's administrative capital, Donetsk. Coming off the highway and ploughing through sunflower fields and village back roads, the upbeat troops – who declined to say which battalion of pro-Kiev forces they belonged to – said they were advancing toward rebel positions and were ready to battle with the pro-Russian fighters holding the nearby city until the very end.

By nightfall the Ukrainian forces were just 10 miles south of the city, bringing the two sides within artillery range of each other.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/10/ukraine-pro-russian-rebels-showdown

[bemildred]

5. In Ukraine's East, the Big Battle Is Yet to Come

Ukrainian soldiers are assembling approximately 12 miles from the city of Donetsk after clashes with pro-Russian separatists throughout the eastern part of the country on Thursday.

The insurgents once again tried to seize control of the Donetsk airport, the site of a bloody battle in May that took place just one day after the presidential election.

Mashable's Christopher Miller, reporting from Donetsk, confirms seeing several armored vehicles and trucks carrying rebel fighters armed with heavy artillery and moving toward the airport.

In #Donetsk, smoke rising from the airport, and rebels on the move with artillery pic.twitter.com/YQGwzuL6qb

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) July 10, 2014

http://mashable.com/2014/07/10/eastern-ukraine-big-battle/

[bemildred]

2. Ukraine warns "all-out" assault may last another month

OLENIVKA, Ukraine: Ukraine warned on Thursday that its "all-out" assault on pro-Russian insurgents may last another month and rejected calls for a ceasefire as it pushed tanks within striking distance of the rebels' two remaining strongholds.

An AFP team about 20 kilometres (12 miles) south of the eastern hub of Donetsk - a million-strong city to which most of the militias have retreated since the weekend - saw heavy armoured vehicles fan out across the rolling corn and sunflower fields of the economically-vital rustbelt.

An earthmover's engine stuttered in the stifling heat as it dug trenches to help troops dodge artillery strikes from thousands of insurgents who are refusing to give up their bloody three-month drive to join Russian rule.

"We arrived here last night," said a balaclava-wearing soldier named Yuriy as his comrades stretched electric cables to a nearby farm to power up their equipment.

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/ukraine-warns-all-out/1253458.html

[bemildred]

3. Russia, France and Germany want new Ukraine truce

French President Francois Hollande and German Chancellor Angela Merkel told Putin it was important to reach a political solution quickly in the three-month-old conflict between government forces and separatists in the country's east.

In a three-way telephone conversation, they asked Putin to "exert all necessary pressure" on the separatists and to take "the concrete measures required to control the Russia-Ukraine border," Hollande's office said in a statement.

Moscow denies accusations by Ukraine and Western governments that it has been fuelling the conflict by allowing fighters and weaponry to move freely into eastern Ukraine from Russia.

The Kremlin said in a statement that the three heads of state supported "a swift renewal of the ceasefire and a meeting of the contact group" on resolving the crisis.

http://www.todayszaman.com/world_russia-france-and-germany-want-new-ukraine-truce_352628.html

[The Magistrate]

6. This Would Seem To Be The Lede, Sir

'In a three-way telephone conversation, they asked Putin to "exert all necessary pressure" on the separatists and to take "the concrete measures required to control the Russia-Ukraine border," Hollande's office said in a statement.'

Again, when you hear people talking about the need to 'reach a political solution', it can be taken as indicating the matter has long since moved past reach of political solution, and is amenable only to solution by force.

[bemildred]

8. I don't think anybody is ready to listen yet, Sir. nt

[The Magistrate]

10. Niether Do I, My Friend

This will be settled, for better or worse, by force of arms. That could have been avoided, I expect, had political steps been taken months ago, and certain parties refrained from deliberately stirring trouble, but other courses were taken, and now we have this.

[bemildred]

11. Nobody thinks that far ahead, Sir. nt

[JDPriestly]

12. Very likely.

If you look at the map, Russia has few alternatives for a land route to Syria.

This whole affair is of much bigger strategic importance than just the Ukraine. There could well be war depending on how bent on expanding its political and military influence Russia is.

[bemildred]

17. I think it is going to turn into a guerilla war, is already really. Low level conflict.

Which means, it being flat, a city war, like Iraq. IEDs and the like. They won't be hiding in the mountains. And it will be just as hot or just as cold as Putin wants it.

[The Magistrate]

20. Cannot See That Lasting Very Long, Sir, If Tried

Nowhere near enough popular support for it.

[bemildred]

21. Give it time. nt

[The Magistrate]

22. There Are Things You Need For It, Sir

And I do not see them present. Most people just want normalcy back in the battle zone, and the behavior of the Ukrainian forces in areas retaken so far has not been such as would steel a populace to resist at all costs. Without people ready to assist with shelter and information, and unwilling to give information to or otherwise assist security forces, guerrillas cannot last.

[bemildred]

23. We will see, Sir.

The current batch from the outside I expect to flee or be killed in fairly short order, most of them, if that is what you are getting at. Unless they prove to be more impressive than so far. They look like ex-military, but not that far up the chain. They know tactics, but they have no strategy beyond appeals to Putin. They thought they would put on a good show and that would be enough.

We were welcome in Iraq and Afghanistan too, for a while. If E. Ukraine is run well, then things might work out, but I don't expect that, nothing supports the idea but wishful thinking.

You are correct that the affections of the locals are central to how it evolves.

[The Magistrate]

24. Indeed, sir: We are Well Into 'Time Will Tell' Territory With This

"The future is hard to predict, on account of it ain't happened yet."

[bemildred]

25. Russia and Developments in Ukraine

---

As Russia’s economy teeters on the brink of recession in part from the cost of its actions in Ukraine and the impact of the U.S. and international response as noted in last week’s IMF report, Russians need to ask themselves what their government’s policy has really delivered for them or the people of Ukraine except economic hardship, violence, kidnapping, and death. In Crimea, inflation has risen to 16.8 percent, tourism down 35 percent, and exports are plummeting. In Donetsk and Luhansk, separatists have engaged in looting and bank robbery, prevented the payment of pensions and wages, and held much of the civilian population hostage in their homes. Now that separatists are on the run, their tactics have become even more brutal as they set up landmines and roadside bombs and destroy bridges and other critical infrastructure.

http://www.state.gov/p/eur/rls/rm/2014/jul/228959.htm

[bemildred]

4. Three Ukrainian soldiers killed in further clashes in the east

Government forces have recently gained the upper hand in the three-month conflict against separatists in the Russian-speaking eastern regions in which more than 200 government troops have been killed as well as hundreds of civilians and rebel fighters.

But though government forces pushed the rebels out of a stronghold in Slaviansk at the weekend, the heavily armed separatists have dug in in Donetsk, a city of 900,000 people, and remain active in and around Luhansk on the Russian border.

The government's "anti-terrorist operation" said that one soldier was killed late on Wednesday when rebels fired machine-guns at a truck carrying soldiers at Muratova near Luhansk.

"The vehicle was ambushed. In the course of the fighting one serviceman was killed and three were wounded," it said in a statement.

http://www.todayszaman.com/world_three-ukrainian-soldiers-killed-in-further-clashes-in-the-east_352607.html

[The Magistrate]

7. Even Without Making Allowance For The Speaker's Likely Exaggeration, Sir

It seems a fairly small proportion of the population in the east, supposedly so hostile to and fearful of the Kiev government and its soldiers and police.

[DetlefK]

9. Sounds like a trick.

Russia has already violently repelled former attempts by separatists to enter or re-enter Russia. Hiding among the refugees would be the ideal way to slip through this siege.

And who made this guy Prime-minister?

[bemildred]

13. Ukraine forces clash with separatists at Donetsk airport

Ukrainian troops have clashed with pro-Russian separatists who were trying to capture Donetsk airport in the east.

The army has been gaining ground in its efforts to blockade the city, after rebel forces retreated there.

Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin has been urged by his French and German counterparts to help bring the separatists to the negotiating table.

Ukraine's military has made significant gains in recent days, recapturing the rebel stronghold of Sloviansk.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-28255174

[muriel_volestrangler]

16. From that story: "However, he later indicated the evacuation would involve tens of thousands"

he seems to have walked back the "several hundred thousand" claim.

[bemildred]

18. He has no idea what will happen.

I don't understand why anybody would think he did.

[bemildred]

14. Ukraine Announces Ambitious Privatisation Plan, Focuses on Growth

The confrontation between Ukraine and Russia took a mild twist on Thursday, with the two countries focusing on their growth strategy rather than on open-faced accusations.

Ukraine’s Prime Minister announced an ambitious privatisation plan, saying that state-owned and holding companies are inefficient and are “stealing money received under the state guarantees.”

"We are going to announce the most ambitious privatization for all 20 years. State-owned companies, which are a subject of corruption rather than development, should be privatized," Ukrainian PM Arseniy Yatsenyuk said on Thursday, as reported by a note published on Thursday.

On the other hand, Russia renewed its commitment to invest in oil and gas projects to maintain the current level of production.

http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/ukraine-privatisation-plan-announcement

[bemildred]

15. Deep rifts emerge in ranks of Ukraine’s pro-Russia insurgents as support from Moscow evaporates

DONETSK, Ukraine — Deep strains emerged Thursday in the ranks of Ukraine’s pro-Moscow insurgents as dozens turned in their weapons in disgust at Russian inaction and bickering broke out between rebel factions.

In the past two weeks, Ukrainian government troops have halved the amount of territory held by the rebels and have grown better equipped and more confident by the day. Once fearful of losing further pieces of Ukraine to Russia, they have shifted their strategy to containing the insurgents, whose pleas to join Russia have been ignored by President Vladimir Putin.

Pushed back into Ukraine’s eastern industrial city of Donetsk, the pro-Russia militias appear to be focusing their efforts now on hit-and-run operations, bombing transportation links and bracing for more assaults from government forces.

Signs of a rift within the rebellion became evident Thursday when the head of the influential Vostok battalion announced he would not submit to the authority of the military leader of the separatist Donetsk People’s Republic, Igor Girkin.

http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/07/10/deep-rifts-emerge-in-ranks-of-ukraines-pro-russia-insurgents-as-support-from-moscow-evaporates/

[bemildred]

19. Russia Threatens Nuclear Strikes Over Crimea

Last edited Fri Jul 11, 2014, 09:22 AM - Edit history (1)

Familiar ot us in the form: "All options are on the table."

A senior Russian official appeared to issue a nuclear threat against Ukraine over Crimea on Wednesday.

In recent weeks, numerous senior level Ukrainian officials have promised to return Crimea to Ukraine despite Russia’s decision to annex it earlier this year. Following his appointment as Ukraine’s new minister of defense, Colonel General Valeriy Heletey promised the parliament in Kiev he would work to retake Crimea from Russia.

“Believe me, there will be a victory parade — there will be for sure — in Ukraine’s Sevastopol,” Heletey said, referring to the capital city of Crimea. At the same hearing, Heletey pledged he “will work day and night for restoring the military capability of our armed forces.” Similar pledges have been made by Ukraine President Petro Poroshenko, who has promised to oversee the “revival of the army,” as well as Ukraine Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin.

When asked about these comments at a press conference on Thursday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov responded, “If it comes to aggression against Russian territory, which Crimea and Sevastopol are parts of, I would not advise anyone to do this.” He then added, “We have the doctrine of national security, and it very clearly regulates the actions, which will be taken in this case.”

http://thediplomat.com/2014/07/russia-threatens-nuclear-strikes-over-crimea/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+the-diplomat+%28The+Diplomat+RSS%29

[bemildred]

26. Ukraine's Top Oligarch Walks a Fine Line

Each day at noon, hundreds of thousands of factory workers in Ukraine’s east pause as sirens blare for three minutes, an act meant to signal defiance against pro-Russian militias. The workers’ boss, Rinat Akhmetov, wants to restore unity to Ukraine and preserve the fortune that makes him Ukraine’s richest man.

The daily siren and the hefty raises at his metal and power plants and coal mines are just two of the ways the billionaire is rallying support in the Donbas region for the national government. The Donbas, Ukraine’s industrial and coal mining region in the east, is where most of Akhmetov’s workers live. Many of his 300,000 employees backed the revolt when the fighting started. Not anymore, say company officials. “Now 99 percent of the workforce understands the events that are happening and supports the principle that Donbas is part of Ukraine,” says Enver Tskitishvili, who runs a steel mill for Metinvest, the steelmaker at the core of Akhmetov’s empire.

Akhmetov, worth $13.2 billion according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, supported Kremlin-backed President Viktor Yanukovych until the politician fled in February and protesters in Kiev toppled his government. When separatists in the Donbas first clashed with the Ukrainian Army, Akhmetov, 47, sat on the sidelines as they seized buildings and claimed autonomy. Then in May he came out against the uprising and vowed to help end it. It’s been a good call so far. The Ukrainian Army has ousted the militias from their stronghold in Slovyansk and has advanced on Donetsk. In a televised interview, Akhmetov urged the government not to bomb the city. Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko’s spokesman, Svyatoslav Tsegolko, declined to comment on Akhmetov’s role in the conflict.

Akhmetov’s 100-plus companies include steel mills, coal mines, chemical plants, and power stations as well as a soccer club , banks, insurance companies, and media outlets. Together they generated $23.5 billion in revenue in 2012, according to the website of his holding company SCM Holdings. Results for 2013 have not been reported.

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-07-10/in-ukraine-separatist-war-rinat-akhmetov-walks-fine-line

[joshcryer]

27. Video of people fleeing Donesk: