Nebraska to Illinois Face Widespread Damaging Storm Risk
Source: Accuweather
By Kristina Pydynowski
A major outbreak of severe weather will ignite across the central Plains Tuesday afternoon with a possible derecho evolving during the overnight hours.
The potential exists for a far-reaching cluster of violent thunderstorms to track from Nebraska to Iowa and northern Illinois Tuesday night through Wednesday morning.
Such an intense cluster may officially be deemed a derecho.
"The origin of this potential strong line of storms will be in western Nebraska where afternoon thunderstorms will congeal into an intense cluster overnight Tuesday and progress through Iowa and into northern Illinois through Wednesday morning," stated AccuWeather Enterprise Solutions Meteorologist Brian Knopick.
FULL story at link.
Derecho: 'The Land Hurricane' : http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-glossary/derecho-the-land-hurricane/14159133
Derechos are referred to as land hurricanes due to the hurricanelike conditions that occur over land with this weather phenomenon.
This term refers to a type of thunderstorm complex that is at least 240 miles wide, according to the Storm Prediction Center (SPC). These violent severe thunderstorm clusters produce widespread and long-lived, straight-line wind damage.
Read more: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/nebraska-to-illinois-face-wide/28041925
RKP5637
(67,111 posts)calimary
(81,305 posts)Ick. Chicago on Friday. Maybe it'll blow over somewhat by then?
Demeter
(85,373 posts)but the sky here in Michigan was an eerie yellow, and is now fading to purple/gray as night falls...heavy rain, some lightning, no tornado warnings....
ancianita
(36,066 posts)Algernon Moncrieff
(5,790 posts)1) consider a reroute
2) if you have a smartphone, see if it can be set to receive EBS signals
3) remember all of the basic common sense stuff - if hail falls, get to an underpass if possible; don't drive through floodwater; a culvert or a ditch is the safest place in a tornado along a highway -- not inside your car.
ancianita
(36,066 posts)gristy
(10,667 posts)Not as pretty as accuweather but the same information is there
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
SPC AC 021717
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 PM CDT MON JUN 02 2014
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN
NEBRASKA...NORTHERN KANSAS...SOUTHERN IOWA...NORTHERN MISSOURI AND
WESTERN ILLINOIS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND
NRN PLAINS THROUGH THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY AREAS...
...SUMMARY...
NUMEROUS SEVERE STORMS ARE FORECAST TUESDAY FROM A PORTION OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGIONS. LARGE
HAIL AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY. TORNADOES...SOME
STRONG...WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
...SYNOPSIS...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL REACH THE
GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES BY 12Z TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN
MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY AND
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. A STRONG UPPER JET
WITH 60-70 KT AT 500 MB WILL ACCOMPANY THIS IMPULSE. AT THE SURFACE
A FRONT WILL STALL FROM THE OH VALLEY WESTWARD INTO NEBRASKA WHILE A
LEE CYCLONE DEEPENS OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
INCREASING WESTERLIES ALOFT AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE EJECTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN SHIFT EASTWARD ALONG THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. TO THE SOUTH OF
THE SURFACE LOW...A DRYLINE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
...CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE MID-UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGIONS...
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WINDS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT 12Z TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA AS A LOW-LEVEL JET RESULTS IN ISENTROPIC
LIFT/MOIST ADVECTION NORTH OF A WARM FRONT. THE SUBSEQUENT EVOLUTION
OF MORNING CONVECTION WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT ON WARM FRONTAL
LOCATION/AREAS OF HIGHER THREAT LATER IN THE DAY...HOWEVER ALL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A VERY ACTIVE PERIOD BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...A
SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE
EASTWARD ALONG A WARM FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND EASTWARD GENERALLY
ALONG THE KANSAS-NEBRASKA BORDER. STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT
IN UPPER 60S DEW POINTS BECOMING WIDESPREAD THROUGHOUT THE WARM
SECTOR AND RESULTING IN AFTERNOON MLCAPE OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG.
STRENGTHENING LOW-MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
WILL RESULT IN AN ENVIRONMENT VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON...WITH STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT...WITH NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICTING
LARGE LOOPING HODOGRAPHS AND 0-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 250 M2/S2.
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT VERY LARGE HAIL WITH
INITIAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE MAXIMIZED
OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...NEAR
AND JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW.
WITH TIME...UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS APPEARS
LIKELY...AIDED BY A STRENGTHENING/VEERING LOW-LEVEL JET AND STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT. ALTHOUGH THE MCS SHOULD INITIALLY MOVE GENERALLY
EASTWARD...A SOUTHEAST MOTION WITH TIME APPEARS LIKELY. A
SIGNIFICANT WIND THREAT MAY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS
IOWA/NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN ILLINOIS.
..CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WY AND MT AND
SPREAD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
WILL SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...POSING A
RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
..BUNTING.. 06/02/2014
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 0124Z (6:24PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
uppityperson
(115,677 posts)Algernon Moncrieff
(5,790 posts)"Fellas, it's too rough t'feed ya"
At seven P.M. a main hatchway caved in; he said
"Fellas, it's bin good t'know ya!"
It's bin good t'know ya! Steve.
At 6PM, I 2x checked that my homeowners was paid. The rest, as they say, is in God's hands.
You & Marta have a basement, yes???????
e.t.a. I'm always shocked to learn my friends in Oklahoma, for example, often do not have basements. I suspect I'll spend a big chunk of tomorrow in a basement.
rurallib
(62,423 posts)and they seem much more accurate.
If I had any brains it would be a good night to visit somebody
We are at the upper curve of the S
defacto7
(13,485 posts)is a moderate risk according to noaa. It's definitely nothing to be ignored.