Syrian Forces Break Rebels' Long Siege of Prison in Aleppo

[Comrade Grumpy]

Source: Los Angeles Times

Syrian government forces have broken a long siege on the strategically situated prison in the northern city of Aleppo, government and pro-opposition groups said Thursday. The advance of tanks and troops into the sprawling prison complex on the northeastern edge of Aleppo is the latest victory for government forces ahead of the presidential election scheduled for June 3.

<snip>

Forces loyal to Assad have fought off a 3-year-old uprising and have taken the offensive on several fronts in Syria, inflicting strategic defeats on rebels backed by the United States and its allies. Earlier this month, the Syrian military recaptured the Old City of Homs, a longtime opposition bastion in the center of the nation. Beleaguered rebels agreed to evacuate the area in a deal between the two sides.

In Aleppo, analysts say, Syrian forces may be trying to re-create the Homs scenario by pushing rebels back, cutting off their supply lines and forcing a surrender or retreat. But the military, overstretched as it fights on numerous fronts, may face a long battle before its troops can encircle rebel-held strongholds in Aleppo. Rebels control much of the city's east and several suburbs and routes leading in and out of the city.

<snip, a lot of good paragraphs>

Still, the government advance in Aleppo is clearly a strategic and symbolic triumph for Assad and the latest in a series of setbacks for rebel forces.

Read more: http://www.latimes.com/world/middleeast/la-fg-syria-prison-siege-aleppo-20140522-story.html

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The Syrian government is not going to go away, it is not going to negotiate, Assad will be re-elected, if that's the right word, in July, and the regime will continue crushing what is left of the "Syrian revolution."

[pampango]

1. Here's a big liberal "high five" for dictators crushing "revolutions".

Peaceful protest in Hama in July 2011.

http://www.abc.net.au/religion/articles/2011/08/11/3290628.htm



A smart dictator knows how to turn "dictator vs. peaceful protesters" into "dictator vs. 'terrorists" for which it is much easier to win international (even liberal) support. Mr. Assad is a very smart dictator.

[Scootaloo]

2. Things change in three years

[pampango]

3. Indeed they do. And Assad is either very smart or very lucky that his opposition has

morphed from peaceful protesters to "terrorists". I think he would tell you that it is not a matter of luck.

[bemildred]

4. Both, I would think, smart and lucky.

A couple years back I thought he was toasted. But he has had lots of help I would think, from his enemies and his friends. And he is not out of the woods yet.

[joshcryer]

6. The tragic thing?

Had Assad handled the protesters like, say, Bahrain it would've been over 2 years ago with minimal deaths. Not saying Bahrain did right, btw, there are far too many people in jail (including many doctors) for no justifiable reason. I'm just saying if you're going to have a hard hand, doing it with minimal casualties and a strong force is the best course of action.

Not mowing down peaceful protesters.

[Comrade Grumpy]

8. Things got violently messy very quickly in Syria.

If you check the timeline, on Wikipedia, for instance, you see very early on armed attacks on Syrian security forces, not just the security forces being nastily repressive. Even though that doesn't really fit the narrative.

There was also little indication that those who rose up were at all interested in reaching a negotiated settlement. They wanted Assad's head on a pike, not a coalition government.

And then there is the issue of foreign support/interference. Not so much in Bahrain, well, unless you count the Saudi invasion in support of the monarch. And speaking of the Saudis...Not to mention the West's cynical geopolitical game of trying to destroy another of the "axis of evil" countries.

And it's not some simplistic "Assad vs. the people" thing. I recall reading very early on how Syrians were divided. About a third supported the regime, about a third wanted change but not revolution, and about a third were ready to overthrow the regime. I suspect that in some quarters, especially minority communities, support for the regime has only hardened, as those communities face an existential threat from sectors of the rebels.

Did Assad miscalculate? Yeah. Did the Syrian opposition miscalculate? Yeah. Did the West miscalculate? Yeah. Did the Saudis miscalculate? I dunno. They managed to help Syria destroy itself, weakening an ally to their hated foe, the Iranians. And spreading the Wahhabi bullshit around the region.

[joshcryer]

5. They do when you relentlessly shell cities.

[pampango]

7. I believe that is known as the Vladimir W. Assad strategy for dealing with urban resistance as

evidenced in Grozny, Fallujah and Homs.

It's a neo-con specialty. Use your firepower advantage (planes, tanks, artillery) to kill from far away with minimal casualties to your side. It is tough on the civilians who live in the cities but your supporters will accept their deaths as "unavoidable collateral damage".

[Scootaloo]

9. No argument here

But pretending the fighters in Hama in 2014 are the same as the peaceful protestors in Hama in 2011 is a little off-kilter.

[joshcryer]

10. That was not alleged.

[Scootaloo]

11. Well, it's strongly implied in pampango's post

Where he draws a direct conflation between pictures of peaceful protestors in Hama in 2011, and the article about Syrian forces winning a fight against armed gangs in Hama in 2014.

[pampango]

12. My point is that the protests started out peacefully; it was in the interest of the side with

the strong military to militarize the confrontation and militarization is what happened.

The confrontation between people and dictators in other countries (Tunisia, Egypt and others) was not militarized as in Syria. Mr. Assad is still in power while Ben Ali and Mubarak are not. Mr. Assad is a very smart man.

[Comrade Grumpy]

13. It's not as one-sided as you portray. Here's the Wikipedia timeline:

The period in mid-March 2011 is when people really started getting killed on both sides. It didn't take long for the peaceful demonstrators to start killing cops.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_Syrian_Civil_War_(January%E2%80%93April_2011)

[pampango]

14. Reading the Wiki timeline shows that the violence was overwhelmingly from Assad's forces

Timeline of the Syrian Civil War (January–April 2011)

Small protests started in Syria on 28 January 2011. Large protests erupted on 15 March 2011 and grew stronger; the Syrian government’s reaction on those protests became violent on 16 March, deadly on 18 March, and grew harsher. Sources consider that week the beginning of the Syrian uprising.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_Syrian_Civil_War_(January%E2%80%93April_2011)

There are many paragraphs on government violence against demonstrators; just a few mentions of casualties of security forces.

[christx30]

15. When the cops are trying to stop you

from protesting and are coming down on you with an iron fist, and you see your friends getting killed, I don't blame the protestors from fighting back.