Oil prices fall after Iran agrees nuclear deal

[dipsydoodle]

Source: BBC News

Oil prices have fallen after Iran agreed a deal to curb some of its nuclear activities in return for easing of international sanctions against it.

Iran holds the world's fourth-largest oil reserves but its exports have been hurt by the tough sanctions.

Though Iran will not be allowed to increase its oil sales for six months, the deal has eased tensions in the Middle East - a key oil-producing area.

Brent crude fell more than 2% in early Asian trade on Monday.

It dropped by $2.42 to $108.63 per barrel, while US light sweet crude fell 84 cents to $93.64 per barrel.

Read more: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25083778

[MADem]

1. Iran will get some help pumping that oil, and perhaps refining it, too.

Right now they aren't fully participating in the world economy.

[delrem]

2. Iran doesn't need "help" w.r.t. oil.

Nothing that it can't obtain on the world market, and that China wouldn't give it quid pro quo.

Iran doesn't need the US's help in "pumping that oil". It didn't need the US to overthrow its democratically elected leader in 1953 either. No doubt Iran would be happiest if the US would just fucking well disappear. Quit harassing it for its oil. Enough is enough.

[MADem]

3. Yes, they do. They have serious infrastructure problems. They are IMPORTING gasoline.

They instituted rationing awhile back, the situation was so dire. Countries like India, China, Japan and South Korea do a lot of the refining that they are unable to do.

Don't say silly stuff when you plainly don't know what the facts on the ground are. It makes you look, well, uninformed.

And who, save YOU, are talking about "The US's help"--why do you think USA are the only ones participating in sanctions or capable of assisting in the oil production sector? D'oh! European and Chinese interests have had their eye on Iran for years. They'll cut the best deal they can get, assuming all continues to go well in the next six months or so.

Talk about hanging it out there for all to see....you really embarrassed yourself, there. Preconceived notions make for lousy conversations--you should try asking rather than accusing.

http://www.platts.com/latest-news/oil/tehran/iran-to-import-a-few-million-liters-of-gasoline-26287033

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-25/asia-refiners-weigh-impact-of-iran-oil-insurance-deal-on-imports.html

[delrem]

4. No. They don't. And Iran is situated for a leadership role in the world.

[dipsydoodle]

7. I think you will find

that they do in fact lack refining capability and as such have always imported refined product. They would have no other need to impose any form of rationing given their own plentiful supply of base oil product.

[MADem]

18. You are woefully misinformed. The truth is that they are suffering badly from

neglect in their oil infrastructure. Once they rejoin the world community, they will have plenty of oil to sell, but that's a ways down the road. They need repairs in the fields, and new, efficient refineries.

How many years did you live in Iran? I'm guessing the answer is "none."

[delrem]

19. You're Iranian, MADem? Or do you just talk like that.

[MADem]

20. I lived there many years. I am American.

And you don't have your facts in order.

[delrem]

22. That's great. But yours isn't an argument, it's just a statement "you're wrong".

[MADem]

23. I provided proof in the form of links. You're making claims without substantiating them.

And as I have proven with my links, you are WRONG.

It's not just a statement--it is backed up with documentation.

If your goal is disruption, it's not working. You'll have to back up your incorrect claims with verifiable source material, and you can't do that--for this reason, your assertions will be given all the merit they deserve.

[delrem]

32. I'm addressing this to both you, Bradical79, dipsydoodle

and any others that I might have offended with my wild statement.

To be sure humans couldn't exist without help from others. Yes, indeed, Iran needs help, as does the USA. That's "the human condition".
Iran has more problems than just refinement issues.
But with respect who Iran might run to for help, consider:

"The 1953 Iranian coup d'état, known in Iran as the 28 Mordad coup, was the overthrow of the Prime Minister of Iran Mohammad Mosaddegh on 19 August 1953, orchestrated by the United Kingdom (under the name 'Operation Boot') and the United States (under the name TPAJAX Project).[3][4][5][6]"

That coup overthrew the democratic government of Iran, no doubt considered a "communist" government because it swept into power after the promise of nationalizing Iran's oil industry. The US/UK coup ushered in a puppet regime that might as well have been run by an idiot, for all the good it did Iran.

Yet Americans don't seem to get it, they don't seem able to understand the feelings that underlay the '79 Iranian revolution. I don't think they've been able to understand the feelings of the general Iranian population to this day. So an American might imagine that offering a small break in the economic siege of Iran will bring Iranians on their knees, asking for "help from the US".

That's unrealistic. It isn't what's happened anywhere in the world. Compare Central and South America. I see a concerted effort to grow an economy there, that's independent of the US military backed "capitalism" that recently devastated the whole area, esp. during St. Ronnie's reign. Likewise in Asia, trade pacts are made which don't sanction Iran. There's the whole non-aligned movement, coupled with the economic juggernaut of China with its "new silk road" strategy. It's most explicitly obvious that Iran is protected in its dealings with Russia.

Why? Because Iran isn't just rich in oil, but it occupies a hub position wrt international trade.

I think Iran has been wasting its time and economy by focusing so heavily on uranium enrichment, when it could as easily have focused on enrichment of its oil exports and that would've been a better plan.

Now here's an example of something the US exports freely, and wouldn't exist without the US -- and I think the people of Iran and any other country are grateful.

Sloop John B - extended - The Beach Boys - Brian Wilson

[MADem]

33. You made a (false) assumption that the help Iran would get must come from USA.

If you knew anything about the region, you'd know that a number of nations--the British, the Germans, the French, the Russians, and more recently, the Chinese--have all played a role in development in that land in the last century.

But no--you went to a thought in YOUR head, that focused on USA, and started bashing away.

I was living in Iran before, during, and after the revolution. Don't presume to tell me what I understand.

[delrem]

35. whoa! you're intent on making this a personal beef? whoa nellie!! byeee!

[MADem]

36. I'm not "intent" on anything. Re-read the thread. Your remarks are way out of line.

You're the one who made it personal when you thought waving your hand and telling me that I was "wrong" would be the final word on this matter.

I didn't make you act the way you did, here. It's all on you. I'm not the only one who pointed out your conduct, either.

Let's review: Here, you make a "from your own mind" assumption that it was the "US's help" that was needed. Talk about a giant leap! No one, save you, said that.

And then, there's your false belief that Iran would be happiest if the US would just fucking well disappear. You know nothing about Iranians, particularly the youth who comprise the bulk of the nation (who, surprise surprise--regard the Shah, and Mossadeq before him, as about as relevant to their lives as young kids in USA regard Franklin Pierce or William Henry Harrison--they weren't even ALIVE when Shah was deposed). They live in the modern world, but their ability to use modern methods of communication, like internet and social media, is constantly constrained by the Guardian Council and the Pasdaran. They KNOW what is out there, and they want to be a part of the world. However, they know that they risk going into Evin and never coming out if they get on the wrong side of the ulema. They live in a perpetual state of fear. Or did you sleep through the Green protests? If sanctions are lifted, they see opportunity to be part of the wider world--and it is what all of them want. Soon as the old die out, they are the future of the nation, and they do not think the way you think they do.

delrem (3,288 posts)
2. Iran doesn't need "help" w.r.t. oil.

Nothing that it can't obtain on the world market, and that China wouldn't give it quid pro quo.

Iran doesn't need the US's help in "pumping that oil". It didn't need the US to overthrow its democratically elected leader in 1953 either. No doubt Iran would be happiest if the US would just fucking well disappear. Quit harassing it for its oil. Enough is enough.

But wait....there's more! When I tell you (and back up what I say with proof) that they have infrastructure problems and are importing gasoline, you offer this fact-free retort:

delrem (3,288 posts)
4. No. They don't. And Iran is situated for a leadership role in the world.

If you can't see that you're the problem here, you need to do something about your vision. Your comments are disruptive, goading, baiting, rude and flat-out unsupported by what is happening in the real world in Iran. And you can't post a Beach Boy's YT video, play a "Kumbayah" game, and make that go away.

You expose yourself to justifiable scrutiny with your uncivil behavior. You should not do that sort of thing. People notice when you do.

[delrem]

37. I see. nt

[MADem]

38. I don't think you do, but maybe one day you will. nt

[delrem]

39. I didn't suppose that you'd be gracious enough for even *that*.

[MADem]

40. I am as gracious as the next person, in similar circumstances.

Have a nice evening.

[Bradical79]

26. What? That's what YOU'RE saying!

MADem made a statement and provided some links to information backing up the statement. You simply said MADem is wrong with no additional info or refutation of the claim, or the evidence provided for the claim. Hey, maybe you're right, but claiming that MADem is simply saying "you're wrong" isn't in the least bit true, and it's extremely easy to see by anyone. It's very confusing why you would even say such a thing.

If you want to argue your counter claim against MADem's with some actual data and reasoning, I think that could be a very interesting conversation, but as it is I don't think you are making any sense.

[nikto]

5. Just to make things even and fair...

Let's allow The Iranians to depose our president and overthrow our government,
just in case
the GOP gets elected again.

[global1]

6. Oil Prices Fall - Is This Why The Saudi's Are Pissed?....nt

[tridim]

8. Interesting, since the pump price is up 12 cents this morning.

[PDittie]

9. Gasoline prices in the US

are more demand-sensitive inside the US. (Gasoline remains subject to the vagaries of being a global commodity. The "national security" argument conservatives make in favor of Keystone XL fails on the understanding that most of its gasoline will be sold to China and other overseas markets.) Gas prices has been falling for a few months now due to decreased demand; that demand recently kicked up, reducing inventories, so the price has followed.

US refineries are running at peak capacity also, so if one should have a fire or an unexpected shutdown (routine maintenance is usually not performed in the winter) then you would see a spike in gas prices.

There's more to it, of course, but in short... the price of a barrel of oil and the price of a US gallon of gasoline have both related and unrelated sensitivities.

[elleng]

14. Interesting that you appear to understand

and/or study this, PDittie.

Would you post what you know, and how we might learn, in Economy, please?

Thanks

[PDittie]

15. Just an amateur economist

and an analyst of life, ellen. Thanks for the compliment.

[elleng]

16. You're welcome, PD.

I'm similarly an analyst of life, but not even an amateur economist. Did have to learn a bit when I worked at a regulatory agency.

From what I've observed, the ups and downs of gas prices at the pump bear little relationship to anything I've been able to discern, over time, which is why I'd appreciate analyses and conversations about this!

[PDittie]

29. "The Keystone XL pipeline is dead."

That's what I think, anyway.

http://brainsandeggs.blogspot.com/2013/11/the-keystone-xl-pipeline-is-dead.html

Linked in that piece is the bad news (if you are against fracking, that is):

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-11-08/there-would-be-no-iranian-nuclear-talks-if-not-for-fracking

I just follow these things for my own edification; nobody pays me for advice.

[elleng]

31. I surely hope Keystone is dead,

and hate to hear about fracking and its consequences.

Thanks

[Gothmog]

27. West Texas Intermediate saw a smaller decline

The decline in the price for Brent is in part due to a reduction of the risk premium on Middle East Oil due to the fears of military confrontation with Iran. Iran could disrupt or shut down the transportation of 25% or more of the world oil production in the event of a conflict. While Iran may not be able to match US military power, Iran still has the resources to sink enough tankers in the Strait of Hormuz to affect world oil supplies. For some time, oil traders have built a risk premium into their pricing and this decline is due in part to a reduction of that risk premium.

PDittie is correct about US gasoline price. West Texas prices (the US benchmark) did not decline as significantly because these prices do not reflect as large of risk premium and are more tied to demand/supply issues. Gasoline prices are affected by things like refinery shutdowns compared to oil prices

[PDittie]

28. Now THAT's analysis

What I do is just observation. to Gothmog.

[Gothmog]

30. I have clients who are in the E&P business

[MADem]

21. The old "summer-winter blend" bullshit, maybe?

It's one way to make some money. Create a shortage of the appropriate "vintage" for the season...

[pampango]

10. Corporatists are not going to be happy about this.

Lower profits for Big Oil and potential profits for the MIC from a war in Iran.

[MADem]

24. They are diversifying, though--they can get the same money through fracking.

The natural gas sector is growing like crazy.

I'm sure the business in Japan has put a damper on their nuclear ambitions, though. Maybe this will finally push them to get at least slightly serious about wind and solar, and even wave tech?

[pampango]

25. IF they are diversifying away from oil "at least slightly serious about wind and solar, and even

wave tech", that would be quite something.

[MADem]

34. It sure would, and I remain hopeful that it will take off, eventually.

They need to make the solar process less cumbersome and more efficient. The wind business is crawling forward, but at least it is happening, still. I'd love to see 'em get off their ass with the wave tech; it could do so much good--imagine using the power generated by waves to operate a desalinization plant, for example, or to power coastal communities. So many possibilities....!!!!!!!

[L0oniX]

11. Gas up 30 cents a gallon in the last 2 weeks.

Last edited Mon Nov 25, 2013, 02:30 PM - Edit history (1)

[dmosh42]

12. There are a bunch of oil tankers anchored out in the ocean. JpMorgan will have them unload...

when the price is right! Free enterprise at work!

[L0oniX]

13. More like a thankgiving travel rip off.

[yellowcanine]

17. This is the real reason pubbies, Fox "News" et al. are screeching about the deal....