Forecasters warn Britain to prepare for worst storm since 1987

[Bosonic]

Source: The Guardian

Met Office says 'St Jude storm' developing over the Atlantic and is likely to hit south-west England on Monday morning.

Southern England and south Wales are on amber alert in anticipation of torrential rain and 80mph gales expected on Monday in what could be one of the worst storms since 1987.

"The storm is developing over the Atlantic and is likely to hit south-west England just after midnight on Monday morning and then track north-east across the country," Emma Compton, a Met Office forecaster, told the Observer. "We have three grades of warning – yellow, amber and red. Amber simply means 'be prepared'."

The Environment Agency has warned of widespread flooding caused by up to 25mm of rain in six hours. High winds could bring down trees, damage homes and buildings and bring power cuts and transport disruption during Monday's rush hour.

Read more: http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2013/oct/26/storm-warning-uk-st-judes-day

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[dipsydoodle]

1. Its going to be pot luck here

dependent on its path once it reaches the SW. Could do anything between veering off to the Midlands and simply running down the English Channel. Last such one killed 13 people and 15 million trees.

I can probably look forward to a night of the slates on the roof of my 170 year old house clattering somewhat.

btw - our old telephone boxes were cast iron and it would need a tree to push a pair of those over.

[jakeXT]

2. Some flashy colors

http://warnings.severe-weather-centre.co.uk/index.html

[1monster]

4. Hurricanes and tropical storms are bad enough in my part of the world... but

add in the cold weather that is like to come with or after this storm would have me heading for the mountains. And 80 mile an hour winds are hurricane foce.

Good luck.

[muriel_volestrangler]

6. Cold won't actually be a problem

Forecast temps for me in southern England, close to the places that are forecast to get the highest winds, are 14C (57F) max, 8C (46F) min for Monday, and a couple of degrees C colder on Tuesday, but sunshine by then.

[1monster]

8. What! That IS WINTER WEATHER for me...

Got to admit that the really hot, humid weather after the four hurricanes we had in 2004 was a problem since we were without power for an aggregate of 27 days. The most comfortable part of the day was when we closed all doors and windows and lit up the oil lamps and candles. Those helped dry up the humidity just enough to be less miserable.

[dipsydoodle]

14. The temperature tonight is forecast to increase where I am

from 12c at minight to 16c by 4am.

[Paulie]

3. Best wishes from Chicagoland

25mm in six hours or per hour? The former I think I experienced when I was in Kingston walking down the street back in 2004.

[Callmecrazy]

5. 25mm in six hours is nothing...

1 inch = 25.4mm

[Pterodactyl]

7. It's scientifically obvious this is caused by climate change.

[greiner3]

20. Uhhhh;

Not quite sure of the EXACT meaning of your post...

[AverageJoe90]

22. And your proof is???? Oh wait, that's right......you don't have any.

For goodness sakes, man, if you're going to post such wild speculation outside of the C.S. group, at least TRY to back it up with some facts......

[Pterodactyl]

26. I was being sarcastic. You can't prove any particular storm was caused by climate change.

e.g. Katrina, Sandy

[AverageJoe90]

27. Okay then. Truly sorry for the misunderstanding on my part.

[Pterodactyl]

28. No problemo, Joe!

[Zorro]

9. I arrived in England the day after the 1987 storm

It took a couple of hours to get from Gatwick to London because of all the damage. Lots of trees in Hyde Park were blown over, bit of mess in other places.

And then the US stock market crashed a couple of days later. It was a rather memorable vacation.

[FairWinds]

10. Yeah, 25 mm is not much . .

must be a typo. They probably mean 25 cm (roughly ten inches).
But hey, stay safe !!
Put some extra lines on your sailboats !!
Or better yet, get them out of the water, and take the masts down.

[muriel_volestrangler]

11. No, they do mean 25mm

It might cause localised flooding if drainage gets blocked by debris blown around by the high wind. This is mainly about the wind - the rain may just cause one or two more problems.

[dipsydoodle]

15. Nope not much rain forecast

mainly high winds.

[happyslug]

16. 25mm is a lot of water, 10 inches is 1977 Johnstown flood level

In 1977 the Johnstown area had 11 to 12 inches of rain in an eight hour period (roughly 25cm or 250mm). It was called a one in a thousand year storm. The rest of Western Pennsylvania was NOT that hard hit, the only received 1-2 inches of rain. While the 1889 flood (the one caused by the breaking of the South Fork Dam) killed more people, the 1977 is the greatest amount of water to ever fall in the Johnstown area in a eight hour period. Hurricanes can produce higher levels of rainfall, but that is about it.

Records for England rainfall (about the same as the 1977 Johnstown Flood rainfall, but appears to have fallen in an area with better drainage than Johnstown):

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/extremes/#rainfall


On an annual basis, Tropical forests rarely gets even more rain, but NOT at all at once. Rain Forests tend to have 1/2 inc to two inches of rain every day, thus ending up with 180-450mm of rain per year

Thus 25 cm of rain is 1977 Johnstown Flood levels, not 1889 or 1936 floods (the 1889 flood is the one that saw the dam burst and has the highest lost of life) was a huge down pour, one of the most severe on record. The 11-12 inches of rain (about 25 cm) produced 128 million gallons of water down the narrow Conemaugh river valley. That was six times the water amount of the 1889 flood. Six small dams failed and added to the disaster:

http://www.weather.com/blog/weather/8_13074.html

I suspect no one is predicting that level of rain.

[muriel_volestrangler]

17. The Seathwaite rainfall at the Met Office link was part of a major flood

It's at the head of the valley where this happened:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/local/cumbria/hi/people_and_places/newsid_8378000/8378388.stm

A policeman died while directing traffic away, and the only road bridge connecting 3 halves of a town was swept away.

[virgogal]

12. Here it says worst in 5 years----big difference.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/oct/27/britain-storm-rain-winds-flooding

[freshwest]

13. Stay safe there!

[dipsydoodle]

18. Check todays pictures out here.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2477634/UK-weather-South-coast-lashed-25ft-waves-ahead-St-Judes-storm.html

Monday is St Jude's day - the patron saint of all who despair.

[CatholicEdHead]

19. Who knocked the Tardis' over?

Maybe the Doctor can change something with the storm.

[AverageJoe90]

21. Damn, that sucks. Hope all our British compatriots can stay safe......

[theHandpuppet]

23. Update

BBC News
28 October 2013 Last updated at 06:05 ET
Two die as storm hits southern UK

Around 220,000 homes are without power, while rail services across much of southern Britain have been cancelled as high winds bought down trees.

Network Rail said the damage was "worse than expected," while 130 flights have been cancelled at Heathrow airport.

The Met Office said a gust of 99mph (159km/h) was recorded at Needles Old Battery, Isle of Wight, at 05:00 GMT...

... The Environment Agency has issued 13 flood warnings - in south-west and south-east England, there are also 152 flood alerts across England and Wales.

MORE at link, with photos: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-24699748

[Bosonic]

24. Hurricane-force gusts batter UK, Europe; 7 dead

LONDON (AP) — A major storm with hurricane-force gusts lashed southern Britain, the Netherlands, France and Germany on Monday, knocking down trees, flooding low areas and causing travel chaos. Seven deaths were reported.

Weather forecasters say it was one of the worst storms to hit Britain in years. Gusts of 99 miles per hour (160 kph) were reported on the Isle of Wight in southern England, while gusts up to 80 mph hit the U.K. mainland.

UK Power Networks officials said up to 270,000 homes were without power. Flood alerts were issued for many parts of southern England and emergency officials said hundreds of trees were knocked down by gusts.

London's Heathrow Airport, Europe's busiest, cancelled at least 130 flights and express trains between central London and Gatwick and Stansted airports were suspended. Huge waves prompted the major English port of Dover to close, cutting off ferry services to France.

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/hurricane-force-winds-batter-britain

[T_i_B]

25. Hardly anything where I live.....

.....chaos down south however, and blanket media coverage as the UK media does get a bit hysterical when the South gets a bit of bad weather.

I had friends stranded in London yesterday owing to massive train problems. Not a good situation.