September payroll employment increased (+148,000); unemployment rate little changed (7.2%)

[mahatmakanejeeves]

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- SEPTEMBER 2013


Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 148,000 in September, and the unemployment rate
was little changed at 7.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
Employment increased in construction, wholesale trade, and transportation and warehousing.

Household Survey Data

The unemployment rate, at 7.2 percent, changed little in September but has declined by
0.4 percentage point since June. The number of unemployed persons, at 11.3 million, was
also little changed over the month; however, unemployment has decreased by 522,000 since
June. (See table A-1.)

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (7.1 percent), adult
women (6.2 percent), teenagers (21.4 percent), whites (6.3 percent), blacks (12.9 percent),
and Hispanics (9.0 percent) showed little or no change in September. The jobless rate for
Asians was 5.3 percent (not seasonally adjusted), little changed from a year earlier.
(See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)

In September, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more)
was little changed at 4.1 million. These individuals accounted for 36.9 percent of the
unemployed. The number of long-term unemployed has declined by 725,000 over the past
year. (See table A-12.


Read more: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

---

Good morning, Freepers and DUers alike. I especially welcome viewers from across the aisle. You're paying for this information too, so you ought to see this as much as anyone. I think this number is lower than expected. ADP for last month came up with 166,000 added jobs. If you don't have time to read the whole thing, here's the executive summary:

Commissioner's Statement on The Employment Situation
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/jec.nr0.htm

== == == == ==

The large print giveth, and the fine print taketh away.

(I wish we had the option of Fraktur typeface. It would be ideal there.)

A DU'er pointed out several months ago that, if I'm going to post the link to the press release, I should include the link to all the tables that provide additional ways of examining the data. Specifically, I should post a link to "Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization." Table A-15 includes those who are not considered unemployed, on the grounds that they have become discouraged about the prospects of finding a job and have given up looking. Here are those links.

Employment Situation

Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization

What is important about these statistics is not so much this month’s number, but the trend. So let’s look at some earlier numbers. We’ll start with the ADP estimate.

ADP, for employment in September:

{Announced Two Weeks Ago}: ADP National Employment Report Shows 166,000 Jobs Added in September
http://www.democraticunderground.com/111642242

ADP, for employment in July:

The ADP National Employment Report July 2012
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014182590

BLS, for employment in June:

Payroll employment continues to edge up in June (+80,000); jobless rate unchanged (8.2%)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014160067

Of particular importance for the BLS estimate for June was this article from that day’s Wall Street Journal.

Unemployment Line Longer Than It Looks‎

AHEAD OF THE TAPE
Updated July 5, 2012, 7:26 p.m. ET

By SPENCER JAKAB Here is a statistic for the politically inclined: No incumbent president has won re-election with an unemployment rate above 7.2% since the Great Depression.

Economists expect Friday's release of June employment data will show 95,000 new jobs added. Meantime, the unemployment rate is seen unchanged at 8.2%. That may be bittersweet or just plain bitter depending on one's political slant, but it is difficult to reconcile today's rate with past periods.

The headline unemployment rate has been flattered by the number of people no longer counted in the denominator used to calculate it. For example, a comparison of jobs data between the start and end of 2011 shows the ranks of the unemployed fell by 822,000 while the number of people not in the labor force grew by a larger 1.24 million. The unemployment rate fell by 0.6 percentage points over that time to 8.5%.

In fact, the participation rate—the share of the working-age population either working or looking for work—has fallen by 2.3 percentage points over the four years through May to 63.8%, a three-decade low. Nearly 88 million people—about seven times the ranks of the officially unemployed—aren't part of the headline rate's calculation.

Hmmm. Give that some thought. Also, when May'’s figures were released, Judson Phillips of Tea Party Nation was on Tom Hartmann that Friday night. He kept referring to the "U-6 Number." That can be found in Table A15. It is "Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force." It appears in two forms, seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted. Either way, it is the least optimistic of all the estimates.

ADP, for employment in June 2013:

ADP jobs up 176,000 (for June)

BLS, for employment in May 2013:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014133487
May payroll employment changes little (+69,000); jobless rate essentially unchanged (8.2%)

ADP, for employment in May 2013:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014132307
May change in employment +133,000

BLS, for employment in April:

Payroll employment rises 115,000 in April; unemployment rate changes little (8.1%)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014113023

One more thing:

So how many jobs must be created every month to have an effect on the unemployment rate? There's an app for that.

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Jobs Calculator™
http://www.frbatlanta.org/chcs/calculator/index.cfm

Well, enough of that. On with the show.

Monthly Employment Reports

From the February 10, 2011, "DOL Newsletter":

Take Three

Secretary Solis answers three questions about how the Bureau of Labor Statistics calculates unemployment rates.

How does BLS determine the unemployment rate and the number of jobs that were added each month?

BLS uses two different surveys to get these numbers. The "household survey," or Current Population Survey (CPS), involves asking people, from about 60,000 households, a series of questions to assess each person in the household's activities including work and searching for work. Their responses give us the unemployment rate. The "establishment survey," or Current Employment Statistics (CES), surveys 140,000 employers about how many people they have on their payrolls. These results determine the number of jobs being added or lost.

[BumRushDaShow]

1. And MSNBC's banner headline literally said

"Breaking: U.S. economy creats a lower-than-expected 148,000 jobs in September"

...until they finally just fixed it.

I think NBC should shut down because its website is a disastrous failure and a train wreck.