Manufacturing In U.S. Rebounded In June As Orders Picked Up

[Purveyor]

Source: Bloomberg

Manufacturing rebounded in June, showing gains in the U.S. housing market and stronger auto sales are helping stabilize industry.

The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index climbed to a three-month high of 50.9 from 49 in May, the Tempe, Arizona-based group said today. The median forecast of 85 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for the measure to rise to 50.5. A reading of 50 is the dividing line between expansion and contraction.

Sustained demand for automobiles and housing materials, combined with lean inventories, are underpinning orders and production at the nation’s factories. Fading effects of federal budget cuts along with growth in exports as Europe emerges from recession stand to further benefit manufacturers in the U.S.

“It’s a pretty decent improvement relative to May,” said Daniel Silver, an economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York. JPMorgan was the top-ranked forecaster of the ISM index in the past two years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. “The increase in new orders is a positive for production.”

Read more: http://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-07-01/manufacturing-in-u-dot-s-dot-rebounded-in-june-as-orders-picked-up

[Doctor_J]

1. And now for the bad news

Americans' disposable income collapsing

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2013-06-27/real-disposable-income-falling-2008-rates

stolen from economics forum

[DallasNE]

2. 50.9 Is Actually Pretty Tepid

With housing and autos showing strength means other areas are showing weakness in order for this number to be where it is at. Also, since we have been in slow growth for a sustained period of time there will naturally be pent up demand and that looks exactly like what is driving this number. But with disposable income on the decline this cannot continue without making worse the debt problem America faces today. It also means that the economy is especially vulnerable to even slight increases in interest rates. That means that unless something is done we will again be in contraction (recession). That could come as early as the 4th quarter. Low inventory numbers also tells us that business people are betting that there will not be a pickup in demand as they have not prepared themselves for this outcome. Read the tea leaves. People have their heads in the sand if they think anything differently. As Krugman said, however, "The people out to punish the unemployed won’t be dissuaded by rational argument; they know what they know, and no amount of evidence will change their views" and that applies across the board -- not just to the unemployed problem.