Egypt: Politicians Have 48 Hours To Reach Deal

[maddezmom]

Source: Sky News

The Egyptian army has given politicians 48 hours to meet the demands of the people, saying any longer will lead to deep divisions.

Military chief Abdul Fattah al Sisi says the army will not be involved in politics or government, and has demanded an "inclusive road map" for the way ahead.

His comments came as four ministers resigned from Egypt's ruling cabinet amid fierce protests against President Mohamed Morsi.

The ministers of tourism, environment, communication and legal affairs handed in their letters of resignation together to Prime Minister Hisham Qandil.

Mass protests are taking place across Egypt calling for the Islamist president to resign. The protests are being held exactly a year since Mr Morsi came to power.

The Cairo headquarters of the Muslim Brotherhood were stormed and ransacked by protesters overnight, leaving the heavily fortified villa with furniture and files.

Read more: http://news.sky.com/story/1109945/egypt-politicians-have-48-hours-to-reach-deal

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MIDDLE EAST NEWS Updated July 1, 2013, 11:12 a.m. ET
Egypt Military Gives Morsi 48 Hours to Resolve Crisis
Army Says It Would Be 'Forced to Act'

CAIRO—Egypt's military gave Mohammed Morsi a 48-hour ultimatum to "resolve the crisis" before the military intervenes, setting the stage for a possible military coup a day after millions thronged Egypt's streets demanding the president's resignation on Sunday.

"If the people's demands are not met, the military, which is forced to act according to its role and duty, will have to disclose its own future plan," said General Abdel Fattah Al Sisi, Egypt's defense minister and the head of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces in a televised address. "These steps will include discussions between all political powers, specifically the youth, who were and continue to be the spark of the revolution. No one party will be excluded or marginalized."

More:http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323297504578578991289439784.html

[Comrade Grumpy]

1. The size of the demonstrations was a powerful rebuke to the Morsi government.

The Brothers had been signalling they were open to negotiations; now it looks like something better happen fast.

I don't know where this is going.

It's probably not a good sign for the near future if Egypt's first democratically elected government is forced from power by mass protests. Political instability and economic collapse are real possibilities.

[David__77]

2. I can't say I'd be displeased to see Morsi go, but...

...this all shows how paper thin the so-called democracy is. Morsi won, and so under what law, constitutional or statutory, should he have to alllocate political power to his opponents? If the roles were reversed, and I certainly would not want power being given by a progressive to a reactionary political group that lost elections.

[Sand Wind]

3. Yes, here the army try to show it as more legetimity than elected officials. Nt

[dipsydoodle]

4. Egypt army arrests 15 bodyguards of key Muslim Brotherhood leader Shater

Last edited Mon Jul 1, 2013, 01:54 PM - Edit history (1)

just breaking on Reuters.

Another here :

CAIRO: Egyptian security forces arrested 15 armed bodyguards of senior Muslim Brotherhood leader Khairat El-Shater on Monday after an exchange of fire in which no one was injured, security sources said.

Shater's family telephoned Al Jazeera television station to report that his home was under police attack.

The sources said security forces were involved in an exchange of fire with the guards after going to arrest them for alleged unlawful possession of firearms.

Shater's whereabouts were not immediately known. He is widely regarded as the strongest personality in the Islamist movement, but who was barred from running for president last year because he had been jailed under toppled ex-President Hosni Mubarak's authoritian rule.

Read more: http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2013/Jul-01/222184-egypt-army-arrests-15-bodyguards-of-key-brotherhood-leader.ashx#ixzz2Xokl8eWw
(The Daily Star :: Lebanon News :: http://www.dailystar.com.lb)

[happyslug]

5. Egypt is very much like Venezuela at the present time

The problem is the economy is hurting, the 1% wants to protect its privileges and thus prefer rule by the Army (As was the Case under Mubarak) The real divide is between the bottom 60% and the top 40%. The Bottom 60% prefer Morsi for he offers them hope that his long term plans will improve their lives (Just like Chavez did the same in Venezuela).

Please note, in these comments when I use the term Top 40% I exclude the top 1% and a good part of the top 10%. The top 10% are so tied in with the top 1%, that they see any increase in the top 1% as to their best interest, even as they income declines. The next 30% of the population are NOT tied in with the top 1% but are beneficiaries of the system that gets the most money to the top 1%. This is the group I am aiming at when I use the term top 40%, more to differentiate them from the bottom 60% then to tie them in with the top 1%.

On the other hand, the economy is such a mess, Morzi, like Chavez, has to step on the toes of the top 40% to get that improvement. In the long term the top 40% will be better off (This excludes the top 1%) who Chavez and Morsi want to cut down) but in the mean time they are facing economic decline. In such situations you get a lot of class tensions, and that is what we are seeing. Worse, the people who are facing economic decline (the bottom 60% can NOT go any further, thus we are talking of the top 40%) fights for the limited privileges they have at the present time.

Marx made this observation and is the basis of his comment of Class Warfare. As the working class's (the term he used for what we call the lower middle class, the bottom 60% of the population) income reaches survive level, the 1% go after the "Petit Bourgeoisie" i.e. the top 10% excluding the top 1% for that is the last group with any money the top 1% can get. This leads to tensions, and many of these "Petit Bourgeoisie" come to hate the "Working Class", while at the same time seeing a drop in Income that forces them into the "Working Class". Class tensions increase for the "Petit Bourgeoisie" at first see that the the poor who is causing the economic problem for they are demanding more and are NOT willing to give up anything (Since the poor has nothing to give, that is expected). As the economy gets worse, these tensions increase, for the "Petit Bourgeoisie" can NOT come to believe the problem is the top 1% not the bottom 60% for to do so, they must accept a lower standard of living AND a lower status then they are use to and instead fight to preserve their status and their income.

That describes Venezuela under Chavez and it sounds like Egypt under Morsi. Tensions are building up with the top 40% blaming everyone but the top 1% for their economic problems, while the bottom 60% demanding that the Government control the people immediately over the bottom 60%. The reason for this demand is the bottom 60% see the top 40% as those people repressing them on a daily basis. Thus you have conflict between the bottom 60% and the next 30 plus percentage of the populations (i.e. the top 40% as I defined them above). Both really hate the top 1% but to get at them takes a long term plan and both the bottom 60% and top 40% want as solution today and any such solution means an attack on one or the other. Thus the problem with Egypt and why no one really wants to address the problem for to do so is to go after the 1% and that means the generals of the Army.

Sidenote: Do not listen to the Army to much, while the Army Generals are with the 1%, Egypt has a universal military service system not a "Volunteer" Army. This is significant for such an army will do what the people want NOT what the top 1% wants. We saw this in the Revolution, the Army send it units, but they just sat around for the troops were NOT going to shoot down their fellow Egyptians. Now, some Egyptians units are Volunteer units (you enlist into them) and those units can be used to shoot down Egyptians protesters but with the fear that the rest of the Army will react against them (and against their officers). Thus "Loyal" units must be available to overthrow Morsi, but most units on maneuvers some place else (or in barracks away from their weapons). Thus the demand for a solution may be a bluff by the Army, for they do not trust they soldiers EXCEPT to support Morsi. On the other hand a coup could occur, but then who will be in charge and will the bottom 60% of the population AND the enlisted ranks within the Military accept such a coup? Only time will tell.

[John2]

6. So in all of

that, you don't think Morsi's religion has anything to do with or the Muslim Brotherhood trying to force it on other Egyptians? You think Morsi intefering in Syria, has nothing to do with his religious beliefs?

[happyslug]

11. In Egypt, religion is on the back seat.

Religion is a factor, but the big issue is simple economics. The "Arab Spring" had more to do with the massive increase in the price of food more the any other single factor. The increase in the price of food was even noticed in the US, but do to the our higher costs of distribution it looked smaller then it looked in Egypt and other countries with much lower standards of living and distribution costs. The Russian revolution of 1917 had more to do with the price of wheat then anyone embracing communism. The German Revolution of 1918 (and the subsequent German Surrender in November 1918) had more to do with the increase in the price of food then a desire for Communism (and the US food relief efforts after WWI and WWII had more to do with defeating Communism then saving starving foreigners, the US quickly saw how food was causing unrest and that the people had to be feed or they would support the only group advocating Change, the Communists).

If we go back in history even further, the Revolution of 1848 was at the end of a long famine, as was the French Revolution of 1789.

Among those countries with people living on less then $2 a day, any increase in the price of food can be a catastrophe. People forget Putin stop export of Russian Wheat to keep his internal wheat prices low and the subsequent jump in price of wheat world wide was the main catalyst that launched the "Arab Spring". Religion very rarely lead to Civil War, religion may be an excuse (as in the Religious war of 1500-1700. if you go into the details of such wars, you quickly see Protestantism raise of the then new middle class to dominance in trade, the old landed aristocracy remain strong in the better agricultural areas of Europe that were NOT attached to a ready trade region, Thus Poland, Ireland and France stayed Catholic, while the Netherlands, an agriculture rich land, but tied in with the rest of the Netherlands which was tied in with trade, became Protestant, a similar even occurred in the Aquitaine area of Southwest France and Switzerland, all areas tied in with trade, thus the raise of trade lead to break up of the Catholic Church and that break up lead to the religious wards of the 1500s and 1600s. Notice it was trade and thus economics that lead to the wars, not the actual religious disputes).

Sorry, it is economics that is driving the situation in Egypt, not religion. The Moslem Brotherhood knows this for it Morsi had a real choice he would renounce the US and drop the blockade of the Gaza Strip )Both demanded by Radical Islamists). The problem is such an action would mean a cut off of US Grain subsidies and thus make the situation in Egypt worse, including increase starvation and that bring me back to that the bottom 60% of Egyptians supporting Morsi as a long term solution, and the top 40% opposing him for he threatens to cut back the percentage of National Income to them on the short term basis.

[muriel_volestrangler]

7. Egypt's presidency defies threat of military coup

Mohamed Morsi's regime has indicated that it will not give in to the threat of a military coup, just hours after the Egyptian army gave it 48 hours to placate the millions who have taken to the streets calling for the president's departure.
...
The presidency indicated that it viewed the statement as a coup d'etat, and implied that Morsi was safe as long as his administration still had US support.

"Obviously we feel this is a military coup," a presidential aide said. "But the conviction within the presidency is that (the coup) won't be able to move forward without American approval."

The aide's comments implied that the regime was hopeful of continued American support. They also suggested the presidency was banking on the likelihood that the military would not risk upsetting America, which provides it with significant funding.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jul/01/egypts-presidency-defies-threat-military-coup

[ellenrr]

8. Morsi regime says will not yield to demands

---things are getting interesting...

"Mohamed Morsi's regime has indicated that it will not give in to the threat of a military coup, just hours after the Egyptian army gave it 48 hours to placate the millions who have taken to the streets calling for the president's departure."

"The presidency indicated that it viewed the statement as a coup d'etat, and implied that Morsi was safe as long as his administration still had US support.

"Obviously we feel this is a military coup," a presidential aide said. "But the conviction within the presidency is that [the coup] won't be able to move forward without American approval."
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jul/01/egypts-presidency-defies-threat-military-coup

[David__77]

9. I think that is a smart tactic on Morsi's part.

Calling out the US and saying "no deal" is really the only other path besides being removed from power, if not nominally. Might as well go out with a blaze and clearly-defined lines.

Obviously the military statement is a coup threat, and calling it such is the only thing that makes sense.

[ellenrr]

14. I wouldn't call it a coup

because apparently the protesters support the army and vice versa:

"Hours after the ultimatum, army helicopters flew over Tahrir Square trailing large Egyptian flags, a move interpreted by protesters as a show of support.

“The army and the people are one hand,” protesters chanted.

Tamarod, the grassroots campaign behind the latest anti-Morsi protests, praised the statement, saying it showed the military was on the side of the people."

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/07/2013726308662568.html

[ellenrr]

15. then again, there's this:

The army’s ultimatum has raised an unsettling prospect for many of the oppositionists as well. Many expressed worries of an army takeover. During the time the generals were in power, many of those now in the anti-Morsi campaign led demonstrations against military rule, angered by its management of the transition and heavy hand in the killing of protesters.

“Morsi will leave, but I’m concerned with the plan afterward. The military should be a tool to pressure, but we had a bitter experience with military ruling the country, and we don’t want to repeat it,” said Roshdy Khairy, a 24-year-old doctor among the throngs in Tahrir Square.

http://www.timesofisrael.com/egyptian-foreign-minister-resigns-as-morsi-remains-defiant/

[Jefferson23]

10. Riveting, so many in the street...incredible. Best to the Egyptians who seek a better life. n/t

[ellenrr]

13. The estimates of 14 to 30 million in the street - 15% to 30% of the population!

Egypt's population = 90 million.
amazing

[William deB. Mills]

12. Throwing the Rascals Out

All societies plagued by squabbling politicians who put career before country, leaving government bogged down and failing its duty to society should have a legal procedure for recall of the incompetent officials. Some states in the U.S. have that. It should be a national regulation that could be targetted at specific officials, e.g., a president who starts a war on false pretenses, a secretary of the treasury who bails out billionaires while leaving individuals at the mercy of corrupt banks, a president who spends $15 billion on sports stadiums when people are desperate for social services, a president who makes arbitrary grabs for personal power.

People should not have to march in the streets, risking police brutality, in order to flunk a politician out of power.

They could always run again...or maybe there should be a "three strikes and you're out (forever)" policy...

[Fire Walk With Me]

16. This is a beautiful thing so long as the army later steps down. n/t