In Syria, Hezbollah Forces Appear Ready to Attack Rebels in Aleppo

[Comrade Grumpy]

Source: Washington Post

BEIRUT — Thousands of Lebanese Hezbollah militants were massed around the northern Syrian city of Aleppo on Sunday, according to rebels and a senior commander in the Lebanese Shiite movement, broadening Hezbollah’s backing of President Bashar al-Assad’s forces and stoking fears of an imminent assault on the city.

The commander, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he is not authorized to talk to the media, said there were about 2,000 Hezbollah fighters in Aleppo province, largely stationed in Shiite towns north of the city. The rebel Free Syrian Army said Hezbollah forces had gathered in a suburb of the city Sunday and appeared to be preparing for an attack.

Rebels have secured swaths of Aleppo — Syria’s commercial capital and most populous city — since fighting engulfed it last summer, but the two sides have been locked in a grinding stalemate for months. An assault on the city could stretch rebel forces, which have sent reinforcements from Aleppo to fight against Hezbollah and Syrian troops in the battle for the town of Qusair, near the Lebanese border.

<snip>

“The Aleppo battle has started on a very small scale; we’ve only just entered the game,” said the Hezbollah commander in an interview in Beirut on Saturday while on leave from fighting in Qusair, where he oversees five units. “We are going to go after strongholds where they think they are safe. They are going to fall like dominoes.”

Read more: http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/hezbollah-boosting-assads-forces-in-northern-syria/2013/06/02/3bb59c7e-cb9e-11e2-8f6b-67f40e176f03_story.html?tid=pm_world_pop

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Things seem to be accelerating.

[7962]

1. Guess if they're focused there, they'll leave Israel alone for a week or 2

So they are going to engage and kill their own brethren. Makes very little sense, but not a surprise i guess.

[geek tragedy]

2. Hezbollah is certainly inviting some blowback on this one.

Having the Sunni jihadists (including Hamas?) and the IDF as one's mortal enemies doesn't seem like a great strategic move.

[Comrade Grumpy]

3. Hezbollah sees the defeat of the Assad regime as an existential threat.

Hezbollah has already dealt with Israel.

Hamas is in Gaza, so not a direct threat.

If Sunni jihadis want to take on Hezbollah, the Shiites will gladly grant them martydom.

[geek tragedy]

4. How has Hezbollah "already dealt with Israel"

Sure, they fought the IDF to a relative standstill a few years ago, but they incurred heavier losses than did the Israelis. Israel is still an extremely deadly opponent.

Generally considered unwise to have as many enemies as possible. It may find its assets being seized and frozen in unexpected places, and when the next bomb goes off in Beirut targetting Hezbollah figures, the reaction in much of the Muslim world will be much different than it was a few years ago.

[Comrade Grumpy]

6. Israel learned in 2006 that it couldn't break Hezbollah.

At least, not at a price it was willing to pay. Now, Hezbollah is even better armed.

Yes, Hezbollah will probably lose support among some Arab states. It's in a tough spot. It probably figures it's better to snuff the jihadis out in Syria than have to deal with a hostile Sunni state next door.

If Hezbollah just sits back and lets Assad fall, it then loses a vital lifeline and is likely to be threatened by jihadis in what will be left of Syria.

[geek tragedy]

8. Agree with that, but they probably could have found a way to be less public

in their siding with Assad, given themselves some plausible deniability.

Saudi/Gulf petromoney will now be aligned actively against them.

[brooklynite]

5. I spent 5 days in Aleppo just before the protests started

It has some beautiful buildings in the center; it'll be a crime against history if the fighting spills into the old city.

[Comrade Grumpy]

7. I think that has already happened.

[jessie04]

9. These people want to start WWIII.

nt

[Comrade Grumpy]

10. I think that remark should be aimed at the Qataris and the Saudis.

They have put more than $3 billion into ensuring this revolt endures. They are equipping crazy jihadis and sending them off to martydom. They thought they could knock off Assad easily and thereby weaken arch-rival Iran, but they were mistaken. You might want to ask the Emir of Qatar how many Syrians he is willing to see killed for the sake of his fever dream.

[Igel]

11. In-group dynamics.

Those you empathize with are your group.

Your group is only wrong when it can be proven beyond a reasonable group that it is wrong. Otherwise, you go to great lengths to justify you group because you may need your group to stand up for you one day. Even if your "group" has no idea you exist and would just as well see you dead. It's the viewpoint that matters, not the reality.

The other group is assumed to be always wrong. Strong proof is pointless; any hint of a suggestion of wrongdoing is enough to prove that they do wrong. No need to even question motives, roughly speaking. The only question is which vile and hateful motive is the proper one: Does this particular out-group want to start WWIII, engage in ethnic cleansing, or what (other dastardly deed)?

The proper balance of power between your in-group and the out-group is simple. If they slaver inappropriately as they grovel at your feet, then they have too much power. This isn't because you just want power. It's because you're just better and more morale and wiser.

So the Gulf states and numerous Sunni groups can send in fighters and lots of money and munitions. We don't like Assad, and are willing to somehow overlook cannibalism. "He's not a True Rebel (tm)!" Suspicions of chemical warfare and media manipulation can be overlooked. "Assad did it! Oh, well, on second thought it's so muddled that we'll *never* know what happened. Look! A squirrel!"

[jessie04]

12. I saw that cannibalistic act.

I wont post it but is on youtube.

Pretty horrible.