U.S. Economy Added 119,000 Private-Sector Jobs in April, According to ADP National Employment Report

[mahatmakanejeeves]

Source: Automatic Data Processing (ADP)

ADP National Employment Report Shows Slower Pace of Job Gains; 119,000 Jobs Added in April

Private-sector employment increased by 119,000 from March to April, on a seasonally adjusted basis. (The estimated gain from February to March was revised down to 131,000).

Highlights
Small businesses (1-49 employees) +50,000
Medium businesses (50-499 employees) +26,000
Large businesses (500 or more employees) +43,000





The press release is at http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/2013/April/NER/docs/ADP-NATIONAL-EMPLOYMENT-REPORT-April2013-Final-Press-Release.pdf. It begins:

ADP national Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 119,000 Jobs in April

Roseland, N.J. - May 1, 2013 - Private sector employment increased by 119,000 jobs from March to April, according to the April ADP National Employment Report®, which is produced by ADP®, a leading provider of human capital management solutions, in collaboration with Moody's Analytics. The report, which is derived from ADP's actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis. The March report, which reported job gains of 158,000, was revised downwqrd to 131,000 jobs.

Goods-producing employment rose by 6,000 jobs in April, its slowest pace of growth in seven months. Though it accounted for most of the weakness in goods production job growth in March, construction growth picked up in April and the industry added 15,000 jobs over the month. Meanwhile, manufacturers shed 10,000 jobs in April -- the first decline in three months and the largest since September 2012.

Service-providing jobs increased by 113,000, the weakest pace of growth in seven months. Among the service industries reported by the ADP national Employment Report, trade/transportation/utilities had the largest gain with 29,000 jobs added over the month. Professional/business services followed, adding 20,000 jobs, and financial activities added 7,000 jobs.

"During the month of April 2013, U.S. private sector employment increasedd by 119,000 jobs, representing the slowest pace of expansion since September 2012," said Carlos A. Rodriguez, president and chief executive officer of ADP. "The services sector generated the overwhelming majority of new jobs in April, contributing a total of 113,000, which helped to offset overall softness in the goods-producing sector, which was marked by a loss of 10,000 manufacturing jobs."

Read more: http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/2013/April/NER/NER-April-2013.aspx

---

Good morning, Freepers and DUers alike. I especially welcome viewers from across the aisle. Please, everyone, put aside your differences long enough to digest the information. After that, you can engage in your usual donnybrook.

This is the lowest number (for ADP, but not BLS) in six months. It is not encouraging.

What is important about these statistics is not so much this month’s number, but the trend. So let’s look at some earlier numbers.

BLS, for employment in March 2013:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014445294
March payroll employment edges up (+88,000); unemployment rate changes little (7.6%)

ADP, for employment in March 2013:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014442827
U.S. Economy Added 158,000 Private-Sector Jobs in March, According to ADP National Employment Report

BLS, for employment in February 2013:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014419050
February payroll employment rises (+236,000); unemployment rate edges down (7.7%)

ADP, for employment in February 2013:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/111631869
U.S. Economy Added 198,000 Private-Sector Jobs in February, According to ADP Employment Report

BLS, for employment in January 2013:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014387295
January payroll employment rises (+157,000); jobless rate essentially unchanged (7.9%)

ADP, for employment in January 2013:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014384927
U.S. Economy Added 192,000 Private-Sector Jobs in January, According to ADP National Employment Repo

BLS, for employment in December 2012:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014356331
December payroll employment rises (+155,000); unemployment rate unchanged (7.8%)

From The Wall Street Journal. of January 4, 2013:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324374004578221291910741394.html
Economy Adds 155,000 Jobs



ADP, for employment in December 2012:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014354896
U.S. Economy Added 215,000 Private-Sector Jobs in December, According to ADP National Employment Report

BLS, for employment in November:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014328849
November payroll employment rises (+146,000); unemployment rate edges down (7.7%)

ADP, for employment in November:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014326586
U.S. Economy Added 118,000 Private-Sector Jobs in November, According to ADP National Employment Rep

ADP, for employment in October:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014286714
U.S. Economy Added 158,000 Private-Sector Jobs in October, According to ADP National Employment Report

BLS, for employment in September:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1014&pid=256565
U.S. Economy Added 114,000 Jobs In September, Unemployment Falls To 7.8%

and

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1014&pid=256816
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics - The Employment Situation - September 2012

The charge was made that September’s BLS numbers were cooked. A fellow who used to head the BLS says this is not possible.

Impossible to Manipulate Labor Survey Data — Former BLS Head
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2012/10/05/impossible-to-manipulate-labor-survey-data-former-bls-head/

By Geoffrey Rogow

Even if the U.S. government wanted to manipulate monthly jobs figures, it would be impossible to accomplish, said a former head of the U.S. government’s labor statistics agency.
….

But, Keith Hall, who served as Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics from 2008 until 2012, said in an interview Friday that there is no way someone at the agency could change any of the data from its two monthly employment surveys. The significant improvement in the unemployment rate may reflect normal statistical errors in the sampling process, he said, but that has nothing to do with manipulation.
….

Mr. Hall said the inconsistent reports reflect the different samples used in the two surveys, one focused on households the other on businesses. The establishment survey has a huge sample size of 141,000 business and agencies covering 486,000 worksites, whereas the household survey covers just 60,000 homes.

“The household survey is much smaller. When you look at something like labor force and employment levels, the uncertainty of those numbers is much larger,” said Mr. Hall. “Within two months, the household survey could show the unemployment rate eking back up.”
….

–Eric Morath contributed to this article.

ADP, for employment in September:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014254238
U.S. Private-Sector Employment Increased by 162,000 Jobs in September, According to ADP

BLS, for employment in August:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014221739
August payroll employment rises (+96,000); unemployment rate edges down (8.1%)

An increase of 96,000 is really lackluster. It's not just lackluster, but, as the first response says, "disappointing." It's half the ADP estimate. Here is a quote from yesterday's ADP news release:

August 2012 Report

Employment in the U.S. nonfarm private business sector increased by 201,000 from July to August, on a seasonally adjusted basis. The estimated gain from June to July was revised up from the initial estimate of 163,000 to 173,000. Employment in the private, service-providing sector expanded 185,000 in August, up from 156,000 in July. Employment in the private, goods-producing sector added 16,000 jobs in August. Manufacturing employment rose 3,000, following an increase of 6,000 in July.

ADP, for employment in August:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014220380
The ADP National Employment Report August 2012

BLS, for employment in July:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014184289
July payroll employment rises (+163,000); jobless rate essentially unchanged (8.3%)

ADP, for employment in July. I heard an estimate earlier this morning that the growth in employment would be on the order of 100,000.

The ADP National Employment Report July 2012

BLS, for employment in June:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014160067
Payroll employment continues to edge up in June (+80,000); jobless rate unchanged (8.2%)

Of particular importance for the BLS estimate for June was this article from that day’s Wall Street Journal.

Unemployment Line Longer Than It Looks‎

AHEAD OF THE TAPE
Updated July 5, 2012, 7:26 p.m. ET

By SPENCER JAKAB Here is a statistic for the politically inclined: No incumbent president has won re-election with an unemployment rate above 7.2% since the Great Depression.

Economists expect Friday's release of June employment data will show 95,000 new jobs added. Meantime, the unemployment rate is seen unchanged at 8.2%. That may be bittersweet or just plain bitter depending on one's political slant, but it is difficult to reconcile today's rate with past periods.

The headline unemployment rate has been flattered by the number of people no longer counted in the denominator used to calculate it. For example, a comparison of jobs data between the start and end of 2011 shows the ranks of the unemployed fell by 822,000 while the number of people not in the labor force grew by a larger 1.24 million. The unemployment rate fell by 0.6 percentage points over that time to 8.5%.

In fact, the participation rate—the share of the working-age population either working or looking for work—has fallen by 2.3 percentage points over the four years through May to 63.8%, a three-decade low. Nearly 88 million people—about seven times the ranks of the officially unemployed—aren't part of the headline rate's calculation.

Hmmm. Give that some thought. Also, when May’s figures were released, Judson Phillips of Tea Party Nation was on Tom Hartmann that Friday night. He kept referring to the "U-6 Number." That can be found in Table A15. It is "Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force." It appears in two forms, seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted. Either way, it is the least optimistic of all the estimates.

Thanks to DUer alp227, you can watch Judson Phillips’s appearance on Tom Hartmannn here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014184289#post12

ADP, for employment in June:

ADP jobs up 176,000 (for June)

BLS, for employment in May:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014133487
May payroll employment changes little (+69,000); jobless rate essentially unchanged (8.2%)

ADP, for employment in May:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014132307
May change in employment +133,000

BLS, for employment in April:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014113023
Payroll employment rises 115,000 in April; unemployment rate changes little (8.1%)

ADP and Gallup, for employment in April:

There were four related threads about the April jobs estimate at DU already. Three are in General Discussion, and they are based on the figures from ADP. The fourth, in LBN, paints a contrasting picture. It relies on the figures from Gallup.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1002635553
Per CNBC - ADP Numbers bad, posted by Laura PourMeADrink

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1002635507
BAD: ADP JOBS REPORT MISSES EXPECTATIONS BY A MILE, posted by xchrom

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1002635837
ADP & TrimTabs Showing Much Weaker Payrolls Ahead of Unemployment Report, posted by marmar

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014111465
U.S. Job Creation Nears Four-Year High, posted by brooklynite

There's a joke about economists in there somewhere.

March, BLS:

Payroll employment rises 120,000 in March; unemployment rate changes little (8.2%)
March, ADP:

Businesses Adding 209,000 New Jobs Last Month Fail To Ignite Market Rally

February, ADP:

ADP Estimates U.S. Companies Added 216,000 Jobs in February, posted by Gruntled Old Man

One more thing:

So how many jobs must be created every month to have an effect on the unemployment rate? There's an app for that.

http://www.frbatlanta.org/chcs/calculator/index.cfm
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Jobs Calculator™

Well, enough of that.

[DCBob]

1. could be sequester effects.

and thats only going to get worse.

[BumRushDaShow]

2. Thank you for your regular posting!

[RC]

3. How many of those 119,000 Private-Sector Jobs are Living-Wage-Jobs?

Jobs with benefits, like retirement and Health Insurance, etc.? And how many are Just-Jobs? Minimum-Wage, Part-Time-Jobs?

[olddad56]

7. And of the living wage jobs, how many went to people who are not US citizens?

[xtraxritical]

12. H1b bullshit...

[reformist2]

4. That chart is starting to roll over.

[DCBob]

8. more like flattening.

even during the bush bogus housing bubble economy the numbers were about the same.

[reformist2]

10. If we don't get another stimulus, we'll go down like we did in 2008.

Frankly, am a little surprised we're still above water.

[jtuck004]

11. Except now with 6-15 million more people, depending on where you start from. n/t

[KoKo]

5. Recommend...

[AngryAmish]

6. It is not going to get better, folks

plan accordingly

[Half-Century Man]

9. Jobs that matter versus "cannon fodder" jobs

I think we need to have standard models for what can be called jobs. A set of known criteria set by federal action.

To call a position a "job", I suggest; 40+ hours a week, A wage above the minimum standard, Health benefits, Employment by owners of facility currently working at (no temps fills), and protections of employment. Not meeting any of these standards prevents labeling the position a "job"

A part time job; 39-27.5 hrs a week, a wage at or above minimum standard, Insurance to/ from/ and at work, Any work done as as a temporary worker (via a temp agency), and protections of employment.

Casual Job; Less than 27.5 hours a week, minimum standard wage, insurance at work.

I further suggest any positions fill with temporary workers have limits. 60 working days to determine if accepted for full time. a limit of 3 persons per position to determine best candidate.

Any and all reports of employment opportunities list positions using these criteria, to insure full disclosure of real workforce.

I always keep in mind: Figures don't lie, but liars can figure. How one presents information can also camouflage the bitter truth. I welcome any suggestions to improve this idea.