North Korea May Have Nuclear Missile Capability, U.S. Agency Says

[onehandle]

Source: New York Times

WASHINGTON — A new assessment of North Korea’s nuclear capability conducted by the Pentagon’s intelligence arm has concluded for the first time, with “moderate confidence,” that the country has learned how to make a nuclear weapon small enough to be delivered by a ballistic missile.

The assessment by the Defense Intelligence Agency, which has been distributed to senior administration officials and members of Congress, cautions that the weapon’s “reliability will be low,” apparently a reference to the North’s difficulty in developing accurate missiles or, perhaps, to the huge technical challenges of designing a warhead that can survive the rigors of flight and detonate on a specific target.

It is unclear whether other American intelligence agencies agree with the assessment by the Defense Intelligence Agency, which has primary responsibility for monitoring the missile capabilities of adversary nations. In the case of Iraq, a decade ago, the agency was among those that argued most vociferously that Saddam Hussein had nuclear weapons.

Outside experts said that the report’s conclusions helped explain why the administration announced last month that it was bolstering long-range antimissile defenses in Alaska and California, designed to protect the West Coast, and was rushing another antimissile system, originally not intended for deployment until 2015, to Guam.

Read more: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/12/world/asia/north-korea-may-have-nuclear-missile-capability-us-agency-says.html?hp

---

You can thank George W. Bush and Dick Cheney for this.

[iandhr]

1. From The Onion in 2003: N. Korea Wondering What It Has To Do To Attract U.S. Military Attention

PYONGYANG, NORTH KOREA—As the U.S. continues to inch toward war with Iraq, a jealous and frustrated North Korea is wondering what it has to do to attract American military attention."What does it take to get a few F-16s or naval warships deployed to the Yellow Sea?" North Korean president Kim Jong Il asked Monday. "In the past month and a half, we've expelled U.N. nuclear inspectors, withdrawn from the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, restarted a mothballed nuclear complex capable of producing weapons-grade plutonium, and threatened to resume missile tests. You'd think that would be enough to get a measly Marine division or two on standby in the Pacific, but apparently not."

Kim said his nation is "way more deserving" of B-52 deployment than Iraq.

"Bush says his number one priority is eliminating weapons of mass destruction, but he sure doesn't act that way," Kim said. "Iraq may have weapons of mass destruction and may be developing more. The DPRK, on the other hand, does have weapons of mass destruction and isn't about to stop making them any time soon."

"Can I be any more clear?" Kim continued. "We have nuclear bombs and delivery methods. Kablooey! There goes Anchorage! But does Bush care? Nope—he just goes on about how we're 'a diplomatic issue, not a military one.' If he even mentions us at all, that is."

"It's like I don't even exist," Kim added.

In the nine years since coming to power, Kim has earned a reputation as a megalomaniac and tyrant, interring dissenters in camps, living in opulence while his citizens starve, and calling members of the North Korean navy "human bombs." In spite of such actions, he has failed to provoke the ire of the U.S.

After years spent trying to antagonize the U.S., relations between North Korea and America finally showed signs of deterioration in 2002, when, during his State of the Union address, President Bush accused the Asian nation of being part of an international "Axis of Evil." The provocative words, Kim said, sent his hopes of a military standoff with the U.S. skyrocketing.

"When Bush named us as part of his Axis of Evil, I was so happy," Kim said. "I thought to myself, 'This is it. We are finally going to have a military conflict with this two-faced hyena.' He'd been ignoring me so long, I really didn't think he cared."

Still, Kim's hopes for a U.S.-North Korea crisis quickly faded as Bush began to focus all of his energies on Axis of Evil member Iraq. In October 2002, Kim made yet another attempt to anger the U.S., admitting to enriching uranium in violation of a 1994 accord. The admission, however, did not produce the desired escalation in hostility.

Kim said he has not given up on attracting U.S. military attention, vowing to invade South Korea if necessary.

"I am by no means ready to quit, but this is very frustrating," Kim said. "I guess if your name's not Saddam, you're not worthy of America's hatred."

"Everyone in my country refers to me as 'Dear Leader.' Is that not disturbingly cultish?"Kim continued. "I do not understand why President Bush is so much more interested in Saddam than me. I'm a strange, despotic, unpredictable madman, too, you know."

http://www.theonion.com/articles/n-korea-wondering-what-it-has-to-do-to-attract-us,35/

[John2]

3. I think it would be

better if you tell us more about the Onion and who publishes it. North Korea has more than one nuclear weapon. They are estimated to have 8-12 and that number is expected to increase to about 46 by 2016, as long as they continue to find new ways to produce weapons. They have plenty of material.

The questionable part was their ability to deliver them. Until now, it is not know if they could place them on their missile system, but due to their last nuclear test, they may have accomplished it. There is an intelligence report, where a Pakistani scientist made such a claim. According to that intelligence report, North Korea shared missile technology with the Pakistani military and the accusation involved Musharrif. Of course he denies it. Their last nuclear test was more powerful than the first two and they claimed they used advanced procedures for a more powerful yield. The Pakistani scientist that made the accusation, claims North Korea's nuclear capabilities was more advanced at that stage than Pakistan's. If that is the case, there are a lot of unknowns' where North Korea's nuclear program really is. North Korea is much more a serious problem than Iraq or Iran ever was or is period. John Kerry may have misspoken about North Korea being a nuclear state. They may already be one.

[iandhr]

4. Your aware The Onion is satire right?

[John2]

5. That is why I asked you,

to find out if you thought they were serious. I don't take North Korea as a joke like Saddam was. They definitely have WMD and nuclear capacity, which Saddam did not. Even if North Korea assumedly got taken out, it will not be quick and easy as many people are trying to portray. A War on the Korean Peninsula would be disastrous for everyone, especially the countries within that region. A missile shield has never been tested against nuclear weapons. I don't care what anyone claims, I wouldn't even want to take that chance, especially if I was in South Korea or Japan.

[iandhr]

6. I think thats the point of the article.

Using humor to make a serious point. They were saying in 2003 that North Korea is a bigger threat then Iraq.

[Stuckinthebush]

2. That's a "one and done" proposition

So if they use their nuke attached to a missile then hell fire will rain upon them. One and done.

I don't think the people who run that strange country are willing to make the bet that hell fire WON'T rain on them.

[defacto7]

7. And just what does Bush and Cheney have to do with this?

"You can thank George W. Bush and Dick Cheney for this. " I think not.

They carry a lot of blame for many heinous things in this world, but this is not one of them. It's a bit much to claim they are to blame for every bat shit thing that exists. That steers the blame away from the real source of the problem which is exactly the tactic they used. Put blame where it belongs instead of hanging your coat on things that are an easy target.

[onehandle]

11. Korea developed nuclear weapons while they were lying to us about Iraq.

President Clinton talked to them and we growing relations with them in the 90s.

The Bush administration stopped negotiating with Anyone.

I am not a knee jerk liberal blaming every problem on Bush, but this is a fact.

The Bush administration blindly named certain countries part of the 'axis of evil' with the intention of creating conflict with them.

Mission Accomplished.

[DRoseDARs]

12. And being BFFs w/Musharraf while one of his top nuclear scientists went to help NK. n/t

[cstanleytech]

15. Thats not what wiki says onehandle.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six-party_talks claims that even under Bush there were negotiations ongoing and I do not know about you but I support reducing the number of nuclear weapons rather than increasing them.

[B2G]

24. Uh, didn't we pay them 500 million a year

from 2000-2005 to NOT restart their nuclear program?

Yes, I believe we did.

[Poll_Blind]

8. No love for NK here, but I see this story as a backup CYA in case the US winds up shooting...

...down a missile or missiles for any reason. With what are reported to be potentially up to 5 different missiles that might be launched at once, and possibly in different directions, it may be difficult for the U.S. not to feel compelled to treat them all as threats during a decision crunch like that.

From what I've read, the US can detect where a missile is going to land very shortly after its launch. I expect the U.S. will be overly cautious, and with necessity.

PB

[demosocialist]

9. hmmmmmm

does anyone know if any International news picked this story up?

[Hugabear]

10. I smell bullshit

Awfully convenient timing, isn't it. Beat the war drums.

[KansDem]

26. Agreed

I seem to recall a U.S. Agency saying Iraq may have WMDs...

[Douglas Carpenter]

13. My mind goes back to Jan. 16, 1991, I was sitting in a bar in on the roof of the Hilton - Abu Dhabi

reading a headline declaring that Iraq may have the ability to use a simple nuclear device in an attack. Along with an Egyptian patron -I walked outside and watched wave after wave of transport aircraft take off and flying North - presumably toward Dhahran or Riyadh. That assessment turned out to be completely bogus. There is no way of knowing whether this assessment is bogus or a type of political maneuvering. But there is no question that whenever a country deemed hostile to the United States and its regional allies is accused of having the ability to launch a nuclear strike - those words alone - whether it is a real on phony assessment - suggest that war is necessary and we must act soon. I certainly hope and pray that this is not what this announcement is implying.

[cheapdate]

14. You can also thank Ronald Reagan.

During the Soviet War in Afghanistan, Reagan handed the Pakistani military roughly $150 million which they were supposed to use to support the the Afghans fighting the Soviets. Instead, the Pakistanis actually used the money to start a nuclear weapons development program. Their program was ultimately successful and the Pakistanis successfully tested a nuclear bomb and joined the club of nuclear armed nations. Fast forward a couple of years. A rouge Pakistani nuclear scientist sold nuclear technology to the North Koreans, who now also have the bomb. It's the anti-circle of life.

[Adsos Letter]

16. "It's the anti-circle of life."

I'm going to add that to my lexicon, if you don't mind.

[TwilightGardener]

17. You can take comfort in that the furthest it can go is...Hawaii or maybe Alaska.

Unless you actually live in Hawaii or Alaska, I guess. Good luck to you guys. Anyway, Doug Lamborn needs to be investigated as to why he released classified info to the public. Did Dick "Deep Doo Doo" Cheney put Lamborn up to this earlier this week?

[Selatius]

22. Hawaii is low probability but possible. Guam is a possibility with their longest range missile.

Their longest range missile that we know of, still in development, doesn't have the range to hit Honolulu or Pearl. Of the three tests they've done with this missile, the taepodong-2, their last test was successful in sending an object into low earth orbit.

This is why Obama deployed interceptor missiles to Guam. It lays within the range envelope of their latest missile. Also, such an interceptor would be in a position to shoot down an object fired toward Hawaii.

If you scroll down a few frames, you can see a high-lighted range envelope of their known missile systems.

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/interactive/2013/04/20134513205800840.html

[TwilightGardener]

25. Thanks.

[moondust]

18. Surgical strike on NK's nuclear facilities starting in...

[TwilightGardener]

19. Can't--unless we want Seoul to be decimated with artillery, from what I've

read. I think we'd have to prepare for full war, first.

[moondust]

20. Hard telling what China would do.

They might actually tacitly approve it as long as it's surgical and limited.

But yes, NK might hastily unleash a conventional barrage on SK, foolishly risking their own incineration.

[cbrer]

21. Here we go again...

Someone call Bechtel and Halliburton.

Everyone have their stock options ready?

[Selatius]

23. I guess it's good to own stock in companies like Raytheon, General Dynamic, and Boeing.

These companies are the ones that build components and weapon systems for our military.