March homicides drop dramatically in Chicago

[hack89]

Source: AP

CHICAGO (AP) — Almost exactly a year after Chicago's surging homicide rate caught the nation's attention, Mayor Rahm Emanuel and Police Superintendent Garry McCarthy rolled out statistics Monday that showed a dramatic drop in the number of killings. At the same time, they tried to allay safety concerns in the wake of a weekend fight involving more than a dozen young people on the Magnificent Mile.

Emanuel and McCarthy — appearing together at a news conference and then in separate interviews with The Associated Press — suggested that an array of police initiatives have helped reduce the number of homicides from 120 for the first three months of 2012 to 70 for the first three months of this year.

"This is a good sign," Emanuel said in a telephone interview, pointing to statistics that show this first quarter tied the same time period of 2009 for the fewest homicides in more than a half-century. "We are clearly having an impact on the homicides."

McCarthy agreed, saying statistics that show a 28 percent drop in the number of homicides in the past six months is more encouraging.

Read more: http://news.yahoo.com/march-homicides-drop-dramatically-chicago-003154243.html

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Good news in Chicago.

[hedgehog]

1. Anybody know how this was accomplished?

[hack89]

2. The article mentions police initiatives

but doesn't give details. I suspect they simply focused more manpower and resources on the problem.

[hedgehog]

9. I'd like to see more specifics of on-the-street operations in

order to compare them with NYC's stop and frisk methods.

[Historic NY]

3. Millions in police overtime........

rather than hiring or replacing 2000 vacant positions. They are spending about 1 million a day OT to keep an extra 400 + officers patrol the high gun crime area. Eventually it will have diminishing returns....as the scramble to fill the overtime slots with mandatory shifts, loss of vacation and days off take effect...on manpower. Thats the word I have from friends that work there.

[OnlinePoker]

5. They do the same here

Is it because hiring more would mean a future liability for medical and pensions so they decide it's cheaper to just pay those who are on the job for the extra time?

[frazzled]

4. Cold weather

I hate to be that cynical, but I swear the number of homicides seems directly related to temperatures. Last year in Chicago March was a freakishly warm month--temperatures in the 70s and even a few 80-degree days, if memory recalls. And there was a corresponding freakish increase in homicides.

This year we've had temperatures in the high 20s and high winds. Drop in homicides. Too cold to be on the streets with guns.

I know McCarthy has been working hard here to institute better policing strategies, but I also think the weather has a lot to do with it.

[elehhhhna]

7. bingo

[happyslug]

8. There is a direct connection between Cold Weather and crime rates.

But no one whats to see it, for it gives Police no Credit. Remember Cold weather brings with it one thing, people do NOT want to be out in such cold weather, Thus you not only have less "Criminals" on the street, you have less potential victims also.

In the 1970s I read about a drop in crime during a two week cold snap in Pittsburgh. I have read about other such drop in crime during other cold snaps. One problem is, the drop is related to cold snaps more then cold weather. For example, in the Midwest, no drop in crime in winter when temperatures are in the 30s and dip into the 20s, but a significant drop if the temperatures stay in the 20s or below.

From what I have read you have a similar situation in Canada, but again it is during Cold Snaps NOT colder weather (Cold Snaps being a one week to one month period of below substantially below normal weather, 20s in Chicago instead of 30s, 10s in Canada instead of the 20s etc). You do not see this is warmer climates, 30s in Dallas is not that much colder then 40s.

For example the average winter LOW temperature in Chicago is 26 degree with average high is 34. It is when you drop BELOW these numbers that you see a drop off in crime rates (i.e. when the HIGH is 26 not 34). The normal LOWEST winter temperature is 17 for Chicago. Thus when you start to see temperatures BELOW 17, people just stay indoors they are NOT prepared for it. You need to be extremely active (Running all the time) OR have specialized clothing (i.e. a lot of insulation, including thick gloves and a good winter hat). All of this tends to encourage people to stay indoors.

Cities with the LOWEST Average Winter Temperatures:
http://www.currentresults.com/Weather-Extremes/US/coldest-cities-winter.php

On the other hand, the Average low Temperature for Houston Texas is 55 degree. Average winter high is 64, with the normal lowest Temperature only 45. Thus a "Cold Snap" in Houston would mean temperatures in the 30s and 40s, which is NOT that cold and you do NOT really need specialized cold weather clothing.

Cities with the HIGHEST Average WINTER temperatures:
http://www.currentresults.com/Weather-Extremes/US/hottest-cities-winter.php

[AngryAmish]

10. As stated above, Tom Skilling should get the credit for this one

Rate shot up during a warm January, went down during cold February and March.

When the weather warms up the shitheads are going to be shooting each other again.

[leveymg]

6. Not long enough and deep enough to be significant, except politically. NPR also played this up.

Rahm has friends all over.

[slackmaster]

11. It's still shamefully high. With the strictest gun control laws in the country, the problem...

...must have something to do with the people.