Fewer gun deaths in states with most gun laws, study finds
Source: NBCnews.com
States with a heavier dose of firearm laws tend to have the lowest rates of gun deaths, according to a study released Wednesday by Boston-based researchers who argue their findings show "there is a role" in America for more rigid gun-control legislation.
"It seems pretty clear: If you want to know which of the states have the lowest gun-mortality rates just look for those with the greatest number of gun laws," said Dr. Eric W. Fleegler of Boston Children's Hospital who, with colleagues, analyzed firearm-related deaths reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention from 2007 through 2010.
By scoring individual states simply by the sheer volume of gun laws they have on the books, the researchers noted that in states with the highest number of firearms measures, their rate of gun deaths is collectively 42 percent lower when compared to states that have passed the fewest number of gun rules. The study was published online in the journal JAMA Internal Medicine.
Read more: http://vitals.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/03/06/17213303-fewer-gun-deaths-in-states-with-most-gun-laws-study-finds?lite
Some data!
ZombieHorde
(29,047 posts)valerief
(53,235 posts)more guns.
Guns laws make people safe? That's Kerouazy!
Walk away
(9,494 posts)republican math that show them how much safer they are in Gun States.
AlbertCat
(17,505 posts)I wonder if how they are enforced makes a big difference, or if just being on the books encourages a sorta subconscious behavior of thinking twice about a gun. Y'know, reminding everyone that it is a weapon, not just a household object, and a thing in need of regulation.
Iliyah
(25,111 posts)Cha
(297,774 posts)to keep buried.
thanks Rosa
SunSeeker
(51,740 posts)I guess the NRA has less influence over JAMA.
Straw Man
(6,625 posts)That says a lot.
The Magistrate
(95,256 posts)'In an accompanying commentary, Dr. Garen J. Wintemute of the University of California, Davis, Sacramento, wrote that the paper's conclusion "would be an important finding if it were robust and if its meaning were clear."
'Ultimately, Wintemute wrote, the new study provides no insights on the key questions facing Congress: "Do the (gun) laws work, or not? If so, which ones?"
'"Correlation does not imply causation," Wintemute said in a phone interview. "The plain English way of saying this is: Just because two things exist at the same time, that does not mean one thing caused the other. That's what's being implied here. All they counted in that analysis was the number of laws in each state, not which laws. There's no information in this study on the specifics of the (state) laws and whether they were enforced or not."
'Wintemute said the study actually underscores the need for well-funded research into the effects of gun violence on public health.
'"Until we revitalize firearm violence research, studies using available data will be the best we have. They are not good enough."'
Straw Man
(6,625 posts)"correlation does not imply causation"
"no information in this study on the specifics"
"not good enough"
He's not buying it.
The Magistrate
(95,256 posts)No one, not even the study's authors, thinks this establishes that volume of regulation alone lowers gun deaths, or that it identifies what specific regulations are of use.
It does point broadly to a testable hypothesis, namely that in a more regulated environment, guns will do less harm.
The quotes you cite are so brutally truncated as to be stripped of their meaning. The last one, for example, is sliced out of sentence stating that due to impediments placed in the way of research, only sketchy information is available for study, and this is 'not good enough' as a basis for scientific conclusions. This sort of thing is dishonest, and foolish when the full text is so nearby to expose the shabby practice....
U4ikLefty
(4,012 posts)well done Magistrate
Straw Man
(6,625 posts)... what you think it means.
Straw Man
(6,625 posts)... despite the claims of the headline. It merely notes the presence of a correlation. Meaningless.
The full text is in your post directly above mine, for all to see, as you say. I made no attempt to hide or misrepresent anything. I merely pointed out the parts that indicate the author's lack of confidence in any of the "findings" of the study.
More Wintemute:
If he's not faulting the study there, then I'm the Queen of Spain.
I'm simply amazed that you could construe the quoted verbiage -- in either the full or the truncated form -- as anything but an indictment of these so-called "findings."
apocalypsehow
(12,751 posts)the vast majority of them haven't even bothered to read.
Thanks for the OP.
Zoeisright
(8,339 posts)Welcome to the world of common sense, reality, and statistics.
norahs18
(2 posts)tough gun laws-but the murders go on every night especially the weekends-mostly drug and gang related-maybe the issue needs to be investigated deeper..
The Magistrate
(95,256 posts)National average is between eleven and twelve.
Just about every state that voted Republican in 2012 has a higher rate than Illinois.
I believe the young people call what you have done here 'Fail'....
JaneQPublic
(7,113 posts)As with most big cities, the urban streets and neighborhoods of Chicago extend far beyond the actual city limits. Consequently, people need only cross the street to leave the city and visit any number of gun shops situated just outside of Chicago proper.
It's not like there are check points with cops frisking everyone entering the city.
Hassin Bin Sober
(26,345 posts)It was a rookie killed by a young gang-banger being used as a drug dealer lookout.
Michael Ceriale was the cop - 26 years old.
After he was shot, there was a big investigation in to the local surrounding gun stores. The results were stunning. I forget the numbers but they found a handful of gun stores were responsible for selling guns used in an unusually high percentage of crimes.
The police and, IIRC, the news papers did investigations where they sent in straw-buyers (they made the straw known at time of purchase) and the gun dealers were more than happy to look the other way and sell to the straw-buyers.
Stores in the surrounding suburbs AND Indiana - the state that touches Chicago on the south side where all the violence is happening - are more than happy to supply the gangs.
hack89
(39,171 posts)even with tougher, city specific gun laws.
Considering that population, poverty and crime are not uniformly distributed, averaging all gun deaths over the entire state merely obscures the truth about the failure of gun control in many urban areas.
The Magistrate
(95,256 posts)If you wonder why you are considered aligned with "Team NRA', you have just shown why you are so considered, by this comment. It is simply a reflexive rallying against the fact that where gun ownership better regulated and less frequent, fewer gun deaths occur. Averaged on a state-wide basis,this is clearly true, just as it is when averaged on a country by country basis, between countries with comparable social and economic conditions.
You know that city laws do not much affect the possession of fire-arms, since they are very easily evaded, and frequently are evaded by persons who consider themselves to be law-abiding citizens. In fact, you have previously expressed opposition to regulations that would make trafficking in guns, the means by which local laws are readily evaded, much more difficult, and in expressing such opposition, failed to offer any sound reason, of a weight and substance equivalent to that of the problem the regulations seek to address.
hack89
(39,171 posts)yet we have a study that deliberately obscures the truth that they do not by averaging gun death rates from extremely violent urban areas with very safe rural and suburban areas.
Here is a ranking of cities by crime rates. Look at how many with high murder rates are in "good" states. Baltimore, Boston, Buffalo, Detroit, Los Angeles, etc.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_cities_by_crime_rate
I have no problem with laws targeting illegal gun trafficking with the exception of a national gun registry. I also support more rigorous background checks including universal background checks. I support all of the president's EOs. I support magazine size limits. So just how much do our views actually differ?
The Magistrate
(95,256 posts)You cannot even state with certainty rates of gun possession are lower in cities than in suburbs. Nor can you credibly deny the fact that rates of gun deaths are higher in states that have less regulation of guns, and in which rates of gun ownership are higher.
We may not differ so much on questions of regulation, though I certainly support maintaining records of who owns what: I consider this of great potential in breaking the back of criminal traffiicking, and regard the 'it's the first step toward confiscation'line as swill identifying a person who spouts it as a mentally disturbed individual who is by definition incapable of responsible gun-ownership, like a minor or a felon.
hack89
(39,171 posts)we know that rates of gun violence differ widely not only nationally or within a state but, in places like Chicago, from neighborhood to neighborhood.
We have two gun problems to fix - suicides and gun crime. Lumping all those deaths together and averaging across a wide range of social economic, population density, income levels factors does not let us pull out those critical details. This report is simply another "guns are bad" report. It sheds no light on why certain Chicago or Philadelphia neighborhoods are virtual war zones or what drives high rural suicide rates.
We both want to solve the same problem. I just think a simplistic lets control guns approach will not fix root causes. This report takes that simplistic approach.
The Magistrate
(95,256 posts)The simplest element of this is the self-evident statement that where more guns are more freely present, more persons will be harmed by them.
Reducing the number of guns in circulation, and their free availability, necessarily effects everything from the public health concern of suicide and accidental death or injury to the law enforcement concern of criminal possession of guns, and criminal acts committed with guns. Many suicides would not take place, or would not succeed, without the presence of a gun; no accidental death or injury from a gun could occur with a gun present. Criminal possession mostly derives from trafficking in guns, and fewer guns being available would drive up the price of obtaining one, just as real monitoring of legal possession would drive up the risk of engaging in trafficking, since virtually all guns in illegal hands started out as lawfully owned guns, until they were purchased by an ( apparently ) lawful purchaser,or were stolen from a lawful owner.
hack89
(39,171 posts)have a good day.
Rosa Luxemburg
(28,627 posts)frylock
(34,825 posts)I was just going to say that someone would use an outlier like Chicago to "discredit" this report. oh well, dollar late and a day short again.
norahs18
(2 posts)But that is the "talk" here -its like the rest of the state stats don't count....just trying to come up with stats that support this.
Electric Monk
(13,869 posts)Kolesar
(31,182 posts)Rosa Luxemburg
(28,627 posts)outlier
tavalon
(27,985 posts)It's Rahm's fault. They have a sociopathic mayor, so it's okay to act all sociopathic.
(btw, to anyone who thinks I'm using sarcasm about Rahm's sociopathy, I am not. I am however, bullshitting about the correlation between his reptilian self and the high gun violence in his city)
Chicago, Nancy Pelosi, Benghazi................blah blah...............so fucking predictable
onehandle
(51,122 posts)Kolesar
(31,182 posts)from the article
tavalon
(27,985 posts)though it is nice to have empirical to back up our common sense.
abelenkpe
(9,933 posts)caseymoz
(5,763 posts)Seems a really simple thing, count up the number of gun statutes, compare it to the number of deaths per 100 thousand population. How is it that the gun lobby has restrained even this simple study?
Rosa Luxemburg
(28,627 posts)LAGC
(5,330 posts)England with its strict gun controls has few gun deaths, but they have a serious violent crime problem (assaults, robberies, rapes, etc.)
I agree, there need to be more studies.
Ferretherder
(1,446 posts)...'England with its strict gun controls has few gun deaths'...
That's it! Right there, unvarnished and straightforward. Stricter gun controls = fewer gun deaths.
Period.
No one said, or, I feel, implied that stricter gun controls = fewer instances of ALL violent crime. The 'stricter controls on guns' are meant to address the use of.........................wait for it.......................GUNS in the commission of violent crimes, not the cause and the prevention of ALL violent crime.
I say, let's address the gun issue, as this study seems to be trying to do, then move on to other factors related to other forms of violent crimes.
Ferret
Kolesar
(31,182 posts)eom
Ferretherder
(1,446 posts)n/t
The Magistrate
(95,256 posts)Well done.
Bucky
(54,087 posts)slackmaster
(60,567 posts)If gun laws actually resulted in a lower probability of getting murdered, California would be the safest state in the nation. Vermont and Wyoming would be the most dangerous states. DC and Chicago would be among the safest places.
Poverty and lack of education are the real causes (or good predictors) of violent crime. "Gun deaths" is just a canard used by propagandists pushing for gun prohibition.
Kingofalldems
(38,489 posts)The Magistrate
(95,256 posts)Suicides and accidents are a great portion of the damage gun ownership does to society, and the risk of physical harm a gun presents to its owner and the members of the household it is in is greater than the risk of physical harm from criminal acts against the owner or household.
Trying to wish away these major elements of the situation is one of the chief pre-occupations of 'team NRA' types, and an good reason to suspect someone may be a gun fetishist who spends an inordinate amount of time fantasizing about what he would do if some 'thug' came into his sights....
friendly_iconoclast
(15,333 posts)I would add that the Fox "News" style slur of him in your somewhat prolix second sentence might be
a good theme for you to harp on in the future- after all, "Repetition is the heart of marketing":
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10022450790#post54
is it not?
However, you might consider condensing it a little, as in your own words "Agit-Prop Has To Be Simple, Sir"...
The Magistrate
(95,256 posts)Your assistance is much appreciated.
friendly_iconoclast
(15,333 posts)...of all stripes.
However, you may take comfort from the knowledge your missives will find a receptive audience amongst
those who already agree with you...
The Magistrate
(95,256 posts)Perhaps if you sat down, rubbed oil on something for a while, it might relax you, improve your outlook on things....
friendly_iconoclast
(15,333 posts)In fact, I would argue that they are second only to the collected oeuvre of Mr. Frank Luntz
in their naked embrace of opportunism.
The Magistrate
(95,256 posts)Perhaps you just keep on keeping on in hopes of a fortunate accident, which might align your words to some coherent meaning?
"I only gave you a chance to act in accordance with your natures, and like all good men, rise aboveprinciple."
Dr_Scholl
(212 posts)Technically, Virginia has a higher gun death rate than New York and New Jersey.
But Virginia has a lower murder rate and violent crime rate than both of those states. I guess getting stabbed or beaten to death is morally superior to being shot.
slackmaster
(60,567 posts)...then it would be ridiculous to base your decision on the "gun death" rate.
Taking an even more critical view of this inane analysis, every state has within it a great deal of diversity with respect to crime rates of all kinds and risks associated with those rates. Violent crime is usually concentrated in specific neighborhoods within major cities. In most suburban and rural areas it is very rare regardless of which state the location happens to be in. (ETA of course there are exceptions, such as rural areas that have serious drug problems. One example would be Pahrump, Nevada.)
In most states gun laws are uniform in all locations. But there are exceptions such as Chicago which has stricter gun laws than the state, yet much higher rates of violent crime.
It's not the laws and it's not the guns. It's the people.
Rosa Luxemburg
(28,627 posts)then Chicago has a history
Politicub
(12,165 posts)primavera
(5,191 posts)Not all violent deaths are murders, indeed, relatively few are. Happily, I don't know for sure, but I would imagine that it feels just as dead to be shot in some incident that does not rise to the level of murder as it does to be murdered by some other lethal object.
As a side note, I just have to point out that the efficacy of gun control laws is, to some degree, influenced by the laws of neighboring states. Sorry, it's splitting hairs I know, but as a former DC resident, it's a pet peeve of mine that people look to DC as a failure of tighter gun control regulation when the reality is that Virginia, with some of the laxest gun laws in the country, is only five minutes away by metro. It's arguably unrealistic to expect any gun control measure to be very effective when it is so badly undermined by one's immediate neighbors.
slackmaster
(60,567 posts)If guns from Virginia are really the problem, why aren't Virginia's crime rates as high as DC's?
primavera
(5,191 posts)To be sure, DC has its own criminals, but DC is such a weird case because the greater DC area encompasses three... well, I can't say "states" because DC isn't a state, but three separate legal jurisdictions within a ten mile radius. There are poor, violence-prone ghettos adjacent to DC in both Maryland and Virginia whose residents nonetheless spend a lot of their time in DC proper. All I'm saying is that it's hard to ascertain the nature of crime and the efficacy of efforts to combat it when you've got three conflicting legal codes at work within what amounts to essentially the same geographic area. I just don't think it's safe to use DC's uniquely peculiar example as typical and/or representative of other communities. One should be cautious drawing any inferences from its example.
slackmaster
(60,567 posts)...to tell me the difference between right and wrong. Some things, like driving by a crowd and shooting into it, seem to me to be obviously wrong; and FWIW I don't believe the legal codes of Maryland, Virginia, or DC proper say otherwise.
It disgusts me that our gleaming capitol city with its rich history and abundance of knowledge and culture is also one of the most violent cities in the nation.
No, primavera. The problem is people. Not most of the people, just a small sub-set who screw things up for everyone else.
primavera
(5,191 posts)What are values except social norms? And I think social norms can be influenced by laws. What was a social norm vis a vis African Americans fifty years ago, for instance, is no longer the norm and values have changed. In that gradual process, law has played and continues to play an important role in legitimizing certain attitudes and delegitimizing others. But I don't need to tell you this, I'm relatively certain that you aren't an anarchist at heart.
Agreed, the problem is people, but I don't think people live in a vacuum. They weren't born on some other planet and just magically materialized here one day. The social values that they embrace are the ones that we collectively have created. I've been following a thread this morning in which a fellow DUer has passionately argued that marital infidelity is a legitimate ground for uncontrollable rage, mitigating recourse to violence. The values he grew up with differ from the values I was brought up with. Mayhaps, had he grown up in an environment closer to the one in which I grew up, his values would be closer to mine, and vice versa. Since I believe that my values result in fewer spouses getting beaten up, I want to promote them as much as I can, to which end, I support things like VAWA, in the hopes that laws criminalizing domestic violence will, over time, delegitimize it and fewer people will consider it justifiable, even if their spouse does engage in an act of infidelity.
Similarly, I think that our society in general is too eager to embrace violence as an option. We are quick to start wars, we're quick to validate use of lethal force, we revere Hollywood heroes who settle disputes through violent means. Violence feels satisfying to us as a society. What disgusts me is that media that depict violence are more popular and considered less offensive than media that depict sex. I'd like to see that change. So I'm going to support whatever laws that present themselves that afford the opportunity to delegitimize violent solutions to problems.
True, violence is perpetrated by people, and for a variety of reasons. Poverty, inadequate education, depression, disillusionment, disenfranchisement, there are a great many root causes for it, all of which we should be actively seeking to reduce. Until such time as we've vanquished those problems, though, part of addressing the problem of violence has to be minimizing the extent of the damage that those unhappy members of society are physically able to cause. Guns may not be the direct, proximate cause of violence, but they remain the but-for cause in fact, without which, the violence, at least at its presently horrific levels, could not take place. Enacting stricter gun control legislation, even if we were to ban all guns altogether, won't eradicate violence, I know that. But it's a piece, maybe a small piece, maybe a large piece, I don't know, but a piece nonetheless, of the problem. Maybe stricter gun control laws will make an impression upon those members of society with less clear values than yourself that they need to take ownership of firearms more seriously and accept greater responsibility for how they use them. I have to have hope that something can be done.
libodem
(19,288 posts)Scrupulously about storage of firearms, it seem that would stop a few of the senseless deaths, of curious children.
sheshe2
(83,940 posts)Thank you for the study, Rosa! Excellent read!
hedgehog
(36,286 posts)law enforcement more willing to impose restrictive gun laws? That is, if I think I don't need a gun to defend myself, I'm more willing to make it harder for you to get a gun.
I think there is a feedback loop as well; the lower the perception of danger from other people with guns, the lower the pressure to arm oneself.
sofa king
(10,857 posts)The way you frame you observation makes me think of gun ownership as an arms race, just like dreadnoughts or nuclear weapons. "The tighter I draw the bow, the safer I become," was the punchline to one Cold War editorial comic I can recall.
Competing nations have repeatedly (but not immediately) decided that regulation, observation, and a timetable for disarmament is a safer and less costly way of addressing the problem than fighting it out, resulting in the Washington Naval Treaty and the START Treaties.
Good luck applying that to the local level, where some unknown proportion of gun-owners are little Kims just waiting to go to war. But it's making me think about the problem in a slightly different way, which is good.
hedgehog
(36,286 posts)Politicub
(12,165 posts)The nerve to collect data! And what gall to report the facts!
Quantess
(27,630 posts)ancianita
(36,146 posts)That state's worth a look, in terms of use laws, enforcement, and the in-state sale rates of the guns that it manufactures.