Florida GOP Turnout Actually Fell (15%) From 2008

[kpete]

Florida GOP Turnout Actually Fell From 2008

Underneath tonight’s big win for Mitt Romney in the Florida Republican primary, is a statistic that might suggest enthusiasm is flagging among GOP voters in this large and crucial swing state: turnout was actually down significantly from 2008.

In the 2008 Republican primary in Florida, in which John McCain beat Romney by a margin of 36%-31%, a total of nearly 1.95 million votes were cast.

But in tonight’s primary, turnout was actually much lower. At time of writing, with 98% of precincts reporting, the total turnout is only about 1.65 million — a drop-off of 15% in terms of the raw number of voters.

Romney did increase his own vote total, though. In 2008 he received about 605,000 votes. Tonight, it is up to about 765,000. (One can imagine him combining some of his old votes, with some of McCain’s in 2008, for his strong 46% plurality.)

MORE:
http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/01/florida-gop-turnout-actually-fell-big-time-from-2008.php?ref=fpblg

[livetohike]

1. Will the GOP blame the weather for the low turnout?

[ChairmanAgnostic]

11. It was Obama's fault.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

2. There it is - an ever more conservative gaggle of candidates, chasing

an ever shrinking segment of the general population. This bodes well for november.

[rfranklin]

3. It was that damn ACORN that made voters disappear...

I heard they are being held hostage in the Magic Kingdom.

[barbtries]

4. what about from 2010?

though i watch very little corporate media, i do listen to npr (well sometimes - often i get pissed and start the CD instead), and i've been amused by their road stories with the R candidates. crowds of up to 50, sometimes 100, little, tiny crowds, apparently the most die hards of the die hards. more than they deserve, but doesn't that kind of indicate an overall disgust with republicans and there terrible candidates?

obama's gonna kick ass no matter who it is.

[titaniumsalute]

6. There wasn't a Republican Presidential primary in 2010

So you have to go back to 2008 or 2000 to compare.

[barbtries]

7. i did know that.

but i thought, perhaps wrongly, that 2010 was a big turnout for republicans, even though non presidential elections are always smaller. my thinking was it could be illustrative of how many republicans are unwilling to vote because the field is so pathetic.

[Kolesar]

5. Racists are a dying demographic...eom

[L. Coyote]

8. And the winner is .... Barack Obama

[MADem]

9. Why, I wonder?

Could it be a dejected voting population, that doesn't like the choices at the GOP buffet?

Could it be that a lot of Republicans have enjoyed reversals of fortune, like job layoffs, under-employment, foreclosure, and are starting to realize the the GOP won't give them a damn thing, least of all a hand?

Could it be they're rejecting the Tea Party craziness at long last?

[rocktivity]

10. Is this a trend?

I'm sure I read something about Iowa's turnout being lower -- but that was before Santorum actually won. What about SC and NH?

On edit: Here's what I found (from Huffpost, wikipedia, and AP):
Iowa 2008: 118,696
Iowa 2012: 122,255

NH 2008: 239,315
NH 2012: 264,385

SC 2008: 445,499
SC 2012: 601,215



rocktivity

[progressoid]

17. Interesting that FL was lower but the other three were higher.

Wonder how the rest will turn out. Particularly Super Tuesday.

[DallasNE]

18. Always Need To Know Background

Wikipedia for Iowa showed 118,411 vs 120,446 with Santorum the winner by 34 votes and it is closed.

New Hampshire is an open primary where Obama won the independent vote in 2008 so forget NH on turnout. Looking at the SC numbers I suspect the same and the numbers I saw were very close to yours.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

12. Also remember that Mittens is not facing a formidable challenger.

As much as we didn't support McCain or Huckabee or Thompson, these clowns lower the bar for Romney.

Of course Mittens' problem is that he can't win decisively against them. He has to spend $16 million dollars to do so.

[kemah]

13. This just proves that the GOP are not happy with their choices. Newt Romney Paul Santorum

Plus the negativity just turns people off. Of the four choices, most GOP are waiting for a white and I do mean WHITE knight to come to their rescue. But most smart GOP politicians know that to beat Obama is an uphill battle. They want to wait for 2016, that's why they are not endorsing. The do not want to alienate any GOP group.

[caseymoz]

14. With these candidates and those debate audiences no wonder

GOP is creating a disaster, and it will continue as Newt makes this a grudge contest against Romney, and he will.

Also, Newt is 68 years old and this is his last chance at the presidency, and he's an egomaniac, so might just pull a Nader on Republicans.

[DallasNE]

15. That Makes "None Of The Above" The Big Winner

In the Florida GOP primary. In fact, so far voter interest has been down in all of the primary battles and the enthusiasm gap should be a real concern for the GOP. It shows Republicans may not want to defeat Obama if this is the cast to do that.

[JDPriestly]

16. This is the most telling statistic of the night.

The winner could be predicted, but this number is a sign of things to come.

[yellowcanine]

19. Right up to Tuesday night the pubbies were predicting 2 million +.

That is a lot less than 2 million. What happened? The avalanche of ads turned people off?