Biden economists' glowing message: Full employment and less inflation

[BumRushDaShow]

Source: Axios

7 hours ago


Full employment has arrived, and it is marvelous. That, in a sentence, is the Biden White House's view of the labor market in 2024, according to a major report from its in-house economists out Thursday morning.

Why it matters: Biden's re-election hopes hinge on the job market remaining robust — creating wide-ranging benefits for workers — while inflation continues to fall. His economic team argues that is indeed plausible, contrary to inflation-fighting economic orthodoxy.

Driving the news: The Economic Report of the President, issued by the White House Council of Economic Advisers, describes "little evidence" that tight labor markets in the post-pandemic period caused higher inflation than would have been the case otherwise.

The economists consider previous episodes of full employment — or the maximum level of employment the economy can handle without causing a surge in inflation.

The precise level of full employment is subject to much debate, with different economic models spitting out various estimates.

What they're saying: "I think we are certainly hovering around full employment," Jared Bernstein, chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, tells Axios. "What we're seeing now is the maintenance of full employment with significant disinflation."

Read more: https://www.axios.com/2024/03/21/biden-jobs-economists-disinflation-2024

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Link to Council of Economic Advisors Report (PDF) - https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/ERP-2024.pdf

Link to Council of Economics website (with previous reports) - Economic Report of the President

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1. There are a plethora of open positions waiting to be filled here.

Lots of "Help Wanted" signs I see all over the place.

I currently work 2 jobs, often totaling more than 60 hours per week, and there are still lots of opportunities for me.

I've had to TURN DOWN job offers because they were either far away, or conflicted with my current employment schedule. That's three jobs right there I had to say "NO" to, which makes it 5 total offers that were given to me. I took 2, said NO to 3. One is nearly full-time (35 to 40 hours per week). One is part-time (about 24 hours per week).

I might end up getting a 3rd job, a part-time one just several blocks away, so I can walk to it within a few minutes. No driving. No traffic jams. No rush hour. About another 16 to 20 hours per week, just 2 or 3 days is enough for me. I just gotta work out the details and hours so it does not conflict with my current hours at my other jobs. I've already "interviewed" and had some initial "training", and they want me to start in April. They want me full-time, but I told them NO for now. But that could change in a few months. If I like it, I might make it full-time and the other two part-time (they are a little further away).

We might end up with people working multiple jobs here in my area because there are so many availabilities. So many open positions, not enough people to fill them.

As for inflation, it was much worse a year or two ago, but now, not really. The worst are gas prices, which are affected most by the Gaza situation in the Middle East, not anything really that Biden has done. However, I'm not really affected by gas prices, because I don't really drive all that much anymore. Even when I did drive, it was about 50 miles per week for the last 20 years. In the 1990s, that's when I drove about 30 to 40 miles per day. Not anymore. Jobs are plentiful closer to where I live now.