Democrats crushing Republicans on sporadic Fla voters in early voting

[geek tragedy]

Source: Tampa Bay Times

A trusted Democratic operative sent us some data on the early and absentee ballot vote in Florida so far to make the point that Barack Obama is crushing Mitt Romney when it comes to banking the votes of sporadic and infrequent voters before election day. So far more than 3 million Floridians have cast a ballot by absentee, mail-in ballot or in-person early vote ballot. Democrats lead by more than 60,000 votes, but it's the unlikely voter numbers that jump out:

Of the nearly 414,000 Floridians who did not vote in the last three general elections, Democrats have an advantage of more than 53,000 votes. Of the more than 482,000 Floridians who have only voted in one of the last three general elections, Democrats lead by more than 77,000 - a total of more than 132,000.


Read more: http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/content/democrats-crushing-republicans-sporadic-fla-voters-early-voting

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This is the kind of data and insight one doesn't gather from top line summaries.

[elleng]

1. They open and tally absentee votes now?

And divulge 'early vote' totals daily?

[joshcryer]

2. They are only saying the affiliation of the voters. Not how they voted.

As far as I understand here.

[elleng]

3. Then its 'fiction,'

maybe 'fingers crossed.'
imo repugs more likely to NOT vote for rmoney, but I'm not objective.

[joshcryer]

4. Either way the turnout is good for Democrats.

It's a positive sign that 2012 is bigger in FL than 2008. It all depends on the ground game. If Obama wins FL he wins again.

[elleng]

5. Right, but FL is still playing games.

[NoOtherMedicineNovel]

7. Growing up in historically red Lee County, Florida -- our Future History will be BLUE

www.WinningKidsClub.org

[daybranch]

6. GOTV

Districts are rigged in Virginia to support reelection of republicans to the US House of Representatives. Wehave same thing here in Ohio.After election we must work to give citizens representation in their states by makig elected officials accountable. In Ohio we are working to do this. We have Issue 2 on our ballot which would establish an independent citizens commission to redraw congressional districts. We need these commissions in every state.

[ItsTheMediaStupid]

8. This is why Obama is going to outperform the polling numbers on election day

Zip, zero, nada, not one, none of these people made it past LV screens.

I bet this is going on everywhere GOTV is really active, like NC.

When the dust settles, Obama will probably get results that look more like RV polling results than LV polling results.

[geek tragedy]

9. I would say somewhere between RV and LV figures.

Where in between probably depends on the individual poll.

[ItsTheMediaStupid]

10. Could be - like you said, depends on the poll

But I would be surprised if we don't outperform LV in places like FL, NC, OH - anywhere where GOTV is active and early voting is allowed.

It will probably help us some on election day as well, but I think what we're doing with EV is outstanding and that's where you will see the biggest discrepancy in our favor.

[geek tragedy]

11. I'm pretty sure he will outperform LV figures and underperform

RV figures--question is by how much.