Obama leads by 3 in Virginia

[highplainsdem]

Source: Public Policy Polling


A new Public Policy Polling survey in Virginia, conducted on behalf of Health Care for America Now, finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 49-46. PPP has conducted 5 Virginia polls during the month of October and found Obama leading in every single one, by an average margin of 2.8 points.

-snip-

-Obama is winning big with women (56/39), African Americans (86/11), and voters under 45 (53/41). Romney’s strong groups are men (56/40), seniors (52/45), and white voters (56/39).

- One key thing to note is that Obama’s deficit with white voters in Virginia (17) is smaller than our national polling has found (22). Obama's competitiveness with white voters coupled with his overwhelming support from Virginia’s larger than average non-white population make him the favorite there.

-Obama continues to have a strong advantage over Romney on the key issues of who voters think will stand up more for the middle class (51/45) and who they think will do more to protect Medicare (50/45). We have consistently found Obama with the edge on these measures in swing states, and it goes a long way toward explaining why he’s the favorite in most of them.

-snip-


Read more: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/obama-leads-by-3-in-virginia-1.html

[onehandle]

1. Obama is on the Kaine Train to Victory. nt

[Deep13]

2. "-Obama is winning big with women"

I misread that as "-Obama is winning with big women"


I wonder how we are doing in NC.

[sofa king]

3. Ohhh, shit!

I just thought of something. If the fix is already in in Virginia, and the President continues on his present trajectory, he will be outside of the margin of error by next Tuesday.

It won't be close enough to steal anymore, but the machines may already have been programmed to steal it. If it's not "un-fixed" before election day, the results will diverge sharply from day-before polls and exit polls.

They'll be busted, in a Commonwealth the President doesn't even need to win.

We should be watching for news of an "emergency patch" being distributed for one or more of the many different kinds of electronic voting machines Virginia uses. Multiple "emergency patches" across multiple types of machines will be excellent circumstantial evidence that a theft was planned, then canceled after the President's support grew too strong.

Or, I'm just a nutjob. Just remember this: a stopped clock is exactly right twice a day, while running clocks are almost never exactly right, ever.

[inductivetreasoning]

4. Still a toss up

It really feels like a toss up here. Living in northern Virginia and associating with primarily young adults can easily instill a distorted sense of who will win the state.

[jenw2]

5. 2.8% is a hell of a lot more than 3 votes like is claimed in the title

VA is pretty rural, but not that rural.