Mitt Romney pulls ahead of Barack Obama 47 to 44 % in Reuters/IPSOS tracking poll

[villager]

Last edited Thu Oct 11, 2012, 02:01 PM - Edit history (1)

Source: Reuters

This was a Reuters Tweet just posted on Breakingnews.com

On edit:

From a Reuters article appearing later in the A.M.:

"Romney now leads the Democrat by 47 percent to 44 percent among likely voters in the online poll, with less than a month before the November 6 election. The Republican had a one-point lead over Obama in survey results on Wednesday, his first in more than a month.

"Romney has been enjoying one of his best runs of the campaign after handily winning the first presidential debate last week, partially due to Obama's passive performance in that contest.

"The momentum is in Romney's direction right now," Ipsos pollster Julia Clark said."

<snip>



Read more: http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/11/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE8991FR20121011

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

1. The polls are all over the place.

[villager]

2. A Chicago Tribune piece on a different (parallel?) Reuters/Ipsos poll, evidently:

There seem to be two different Reuters/Ipsos results in the news cycle today? Thanks to gcomeau for pointing that out...

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Republican challenger Mitt Romney has pulled ahead of President Barack Obama in the race for the White House for the first time in more than a month and leads 45 percent to 44 percent among likely voters, according to a Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll released on Wednesday.

With just under four weeks to go before the November 6 election, Romney's surge followed his strong performance against Obama in last week's debate and erased a jump in support that Obama had enjoyed following the September 3-6 Democratic National Convention.

The poll showed that voters have warmed to Romney across a range of policy issues following the debate.

<snip>

http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2012-10-10/news/sns-rt-us-usa-campaign-pollbre8991fr-20121010_1_ipsos-poll-alistair-bell-deborah-charles

[gcomeau]

5. That isn't it.

That's a 1 point lead. And the next update of their tracking poll won't be until tonight.

I suspect whoever tweeted this screwed up the headline/ Ipsos Reuters has a tracking poll AND a one time per month separate poll. It's about time for the one time per month poll to come out, Romney may have been up 3 in that.

FYI, last time the one time a month poll came out it skewed more toward Romney than the tracking poll did.

[villager]

9. Shoot, you're right -- I mixed up news about the two polls myself in a news feed

I will amend the previous post

[Democrats4All]

4. outlier poll

This poll has been an outlier all year. It had obama up by 12 points nationally before the debate. I would give more weight to nbc marist, cnn,quinnipiac, ppp, even rasmussen over the reuters online poll.

[FBaggins]

51. It's usually an outlier in our favor.

(to the extent it is at all) - So that doesn't help much.

Also... it's hard to call something an outlier (by definition about a 1-in-20 poll) when it's within the close margin of error of essentially every other national poll.

[gcomeau]

6. NOT their tracking poll I suspect.

It's about time for their separate once monthly poll to come out. Last month that skewed more towards Romney than their tracking did. Not sure what differences in methodology there are or why they need two polls exactly...

[SacoMaine61]

7. Why oh why would anyone vote for someone who has so many red flags???

Won't release tax returns
Flip flops day to day (Palestinian state, pro-choice, same sex marriage, tax plan)
Detail-free deficit reduction plan
Pretends his health-care plan is not what it is
47%
Offshore bank accounts
Mysterious $100 mil in an IRA
Insulting England, Spain
Vulture capitalist
Assaulting high school classmate
'Pranking' in an officer's uniform
Directing a sight-impaired person to walk through a closed door
Doesn't understand how emergency room care is not a solution

[goclark]

21. You would think that theTeabags would be mad ~

but they must love him now because they like Flip Flops from their positions- don't think so but they are really quirt.

[Puzzledtraveller]

24. it's bush reversed ANYBODY BUT OBAMA!

We need to realize that is their motivation this time. Stop trying to use reason to figure it out.

[AAO]

37. You forgot Major Asshole. Or is he a General Dickwad? n/t

[AndyTiedye]

45. Because the Tee Vee Tells Them To

[Roland99]

8. Details >>>>

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/11/us-usa-campaign-poll-thu-idUSBRE89A12U20121011

Republican challenger Mitt Romney has extended his lead over President Barack Obama to 3 percentage points, according to a Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll released on Thursday, ahead of a high-stakes debate between the two candidates' running mates.

Romney now leads the Democrat by 47 percent to 44 percent among likely voters in the online poll, with less than a month before the November 6 election. The Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll released on Wednesday had shown Romney with a one-point lead over Obama, his first lead in the survey in more than a month.

Romney has been enjoying one of his best runs of the campaign after handily winning the first presidential debate last week, partially due to Obama's passive performance in that contest.

[mzmolly]

15. "the online poll"?

Enough said.

[lexw]

16. Hope so

[mzmolly]

20. Their 'regular' polls shows a one point lead for Romney ... but

began on 10/6.

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=5817

These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted for Thomson Reuters from Oct. 6-10, 2012. For the survey, a sample of 1,199 American registered voters and 1,027 Likely Voters (all age 18 and over) was interviewed online. The precision of the Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points for Registered Voters and 3.5 for Likely Voters. For more information about credibility intervals, please see the appendix.

Ras has Obama up 1 over Rmoney.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows President Obama attracting support from 48% of voters nationwide, while Mitt Romney earns the vote from 47%.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

[lexw]

58. The whole thing is shocking....

Obama should be up by a huge margin. Romney is a joke, and Ryan is the same. This is disgusting.
BTW: I'm shocked that none of this is on Yahoo "NEWS". I've been following their reporting since last year (taking screen shots), and as right leaning as they are, they should have a huge banner posted across the webpage about Romney being on top, but I don't see a thing.

[ProSense]

10. Reuters is becoming

a useless poll. This is data from its Wednesday poll.

Fascinating: comparing Reuters/Ipsos poll for Oct 2 to Oct 10
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021510075

[heaven05]

11. BS

this is horse race BULLSHIT to generate M$M profits. One debate is not going to cause that kind of right wing surge with all the obvious and egregious lies told by that mittytwit!!! If americans are that stupid may we get what we deserve by electoral process or theft.

[villager]

12. What possible evidence could there be in thinking Americans could ever be that stupid!?

[muriel_volestrangler]

31. Please put a proper link in the OP, and use the title of the link

or the LBN hosts will have to lock this thread - there's nothing about a poll in your OP link.

[villager]

33. That is a proper title and link of course

Locking would just be.... petty.

[muriel_volestrangler]

41. Please edit the OP to use the actual title (nt)

[Th1onein]

19. YOU'RE ABSOLUTELY RIGHT!

Sorry, I'm just not buying this poll shit. Nope, not now, not ever. Obama has been ahead in the polls from the very beginning and gaining stronger and stronger leads every day, and then a debate where Romney makes a fool of himself puts him behind? Uh uh. Sorry, I'm not biting.

[ywcachieve]

42. I'm dsnot buying it either....

for the same reason you are not.

[berni_mccoy]

13. Romney can't break 47% in a skewed poll? Bad sign for him.

[and-justice-for-all]

14. Dont believe that hyped BS...nt

[regnaD kciN]

17. I'd love to see their LV/RV split...

Ipsos has been unbelievably flaky recently with their tracking poll; I wonder if the same might apply here. For example, in their tracker, the day before the debate, they had O+5 LV; a week later, it was R+4 LV...yet the RV numbers were O+3 both times. In other words, the nine-point shift between these two days was due to a change in the LV screen, and nothing else.

[0rganism]

61. their LV model is probably way too fickle

And they're not the only ones doing it. Weighting by enthusiasm based on recent events is bound to paint a chaotic picture.

[iandhr]

18. We need to get to work

And the Pres need to show up.

[L0oniX]

22. YAwn

[berni_mccoy]

23. It's an ONLINE poll. LMFAO

[still_one]

25. then what the hell is this doing in latest breaking news? /nt

[OldDem2012]

26. Just wait until the Democrats vote!....

Online poll....no doubt can be explained as exceptionally scientific.




NEXT!!

[ywcachieve]

50. I share your optimism.

People, stop following the polls, and just VOTE!

[judesedit]

27. Bullshit.They are prepping the field to steal another election.Gone so far as to say "no exit polls"

Not once have a seen a huge crowd show up for Rob-me. Always show a small-frame picture. Thousands show up for Obama every time in every state. Even N Carolina was great. The media is owned by Daddy Warbucks and his buddies and they will do ANYTHING and EVERYTHING possible under this sun to maintain power. Don't buy into it. VOTE! And take as many SENSIBLE people you can to the polls. Better yet, vote absentee and take it to democratic headquarters or campaign office.

[Maximumnegro]

29. Obama is doing fine in battleground states

Ohio is close to a lock in OH based on early voting. As the O campaign stated tuesday, the race is stagnant.

[AlbertCat]

28. All this "poll hysteria" with wildly fluctuating numbers that don't make sense...

... is just because the GOP have been buried at the bottom of polls for a while and so THEY complained about skewed polls and turned polling into some sort of fantasy sport. The MSM is playing along because they are bought and paid for and they like a close horse race because of ratings.

Remember rule #1: If the GOP is outraged by something, you can be sure they themselves are doing it, not the people their faux-rage is directed at.

The thing to take away, as far as I can see, is...

forget the polls (until close to the election.... or during, like exit polls. Are they doing those this year?)

[Megahurtz]

30. There is NO WAY Romney Will Win.

These polls are nothing but propaganda "convince the public to give up and vote for Romney" bullshit.
Nothing but pure GOP propaganda bullshit.

[Puzzledtraveller]

40. Can you guarantee that? n/t

[ywcachieve]

48. Why would someone give up period, let alone give up and vote

for Romney?
President Obama's supporters are solid.

[OnlinePoker]

32. I wouldn't worry about it.

Rasmussen has Obama up 1 which generally means he's probably up 3.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

[SunSeeker]

34. Exactly! Rasmussen gives Obama only a 1 point lead in Ohio, where others give him 6.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014263216

[progressivebydesign]

35. Problem usually is this. They oversample "independents" who are almost always repugs.

They did this last election, too. They do the 1/3 dem, 1/3 repug, 1/3 independent. Problem is that independents are NOT 1/3 of voters, AND they're almost always republicans who fancy themselves independents.

[ywcachieve]

46. Exactly.

[Swede Atlanta]

36. They missed me...

I am not a "likely" voter. I am a real voter who voted for Obama yesterday.

[regnaD kciN]

38. Anyone want to bet...

...that, despite the excellent swing-state polls, this, along with Gallup and Monmouth, will cause Nate Silver to drop Obama's odds to below 65%?

[ailsagirl]

39. WTF???

I don't understand what the hell is going on.

The President was ahead everywhere and suddenly Nitt/Lyin are way ahead???

Now I'm thinking I smell a rat

What about the 7.8% ???

[oswaldactedalone]

59. Obama's pitiful

debate showing overrode anything that happened afterward. He bombed in front of 60 million people and the other 260 million quickly found out. The impact of unemployment figures is essentially meaningless to voters after the enormity of Obama's loss.

[ailsagirl]

64. That is complete and utter garbage. Bye bye!

[santamargarita]

43. Here comes the setup for a close election...

and then they can steal it!

[Puzzledtraveller]

49. For sake of discussion do you think we would concede right away?

[ywcachieve]

44. My dear Democrats, and other President Obama supporters, STOP looking at polls,

and just VOTE!
President Obama does not need you guys freaking out over polls, he needs your VOTE!

[slackmaster]

47. Are you kidding? There are people on this forum who live for polls.

It's what they do.

[ywcachieve]

60. {sigh}

[Ash_F]

52. Reuters; enough said. /nt

[donnasgirl]

53. Now is the time

To kick ass people,if you want this president start moving and give what you can.The polls are to close and i want to see this liar sent packing to the curb.

[ProSense]

54. Comparing Reuters/Ipsos poll for Oct 2, Oct 10 and Oct 11

Comparing Reuters/Ipsos poll for Oct 2, Oct 10 and Oct 11
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021514356

[Jim__]

55. What do they mean by "online poll?"

Is this a poll with a self-selected set of responders?

[dawn frenzy adams]

56. Funny isn't it?

When the Republicans make a complaint, the default position of the media is to respond swiftly. The Republicans have been whining about the liberal media and skewed polls. So the Mainstream Media used the debate to right a false wrong. So did the polling companies. Frankly, they have never been a friend to Democrats or Progressives.

The question is why are we supporting these Republican lead media conglomerates with our cable/ satellite subscriptions- and advertising dollars? Right now we should be creating a petition to drop our subscriptions. The only way Romney can win is through the complicity of the media and rigged electronic voting machines. Don't let them do it!

You'd better get ready for a battle.

[PSPS]

57. LOL. OK, now pull my other finger.

[and-justice-for-all]

62. Enough with this polling bullshit already...nt

[vinny9698]

63. That's a national poll, where Romney is picking up more support in red states

Romney is getting higher numbers in red states. But the states that count are the swing states. We all know those are the states that matter in any election.

[NuttyFluffers]

65. fakin' it close so they can steal it.

anyone surprised by the routine anymore?