Turkish president says "worst case" unfolding in Syria

[jsr]

Source: Reuters

(Reuters) - Turkish President Abdullah Gul said on Monday the "worst-case scenarios" were now playing out in Syria and Turkey would to do everything necessary to protect itself, while its army fired back for a sixth day after a shell fired from Syria flew over the border.

Gul said the violence in Turkey's southern neighbor, where a revolt against President Bashar al-Assad has evolved into a civil war that threatens to draw in regional powers, could not go on indefinitely and Assad's fall was inevitable.

"The worst-case scenarios are taking place right now in Syria ... Our government is in constant consultation with the Turkish military. Whatever is needed is being done immediately as you see, and it will continue to be done," Gul said.

Turkey's armed forces have bolstered their presence along the 900 km (560 mile) border with Syria in recent days and have been responding in kind to gunfire and shelling spilling across from the south, where Assad's forces have been battling rebels who control swathes of territory.


Read more: http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/08/us-syria-crisis-turkey-idUSBRE8970J320121008

[glacierbay]

1. Uh Oh.

This doesn't sound good, sounds like maybe Turkey may be contemplating intervening in Syria. I sure hope that if this is true, they've considered all the possible consequences.

[Arctic Dave]

16. Um, they have been intervening in Syria.

Where do you think the rebels have been training and getting their weapons from. Turkey is reaping what it sowed.

[Guy Whitey Corngood]

2. How goddamn stupid is Assad (or whoever is running the show over there)? nt

[glacierbay]

3. I'm thinking that Assad

may be losing control of his military. I hope the Syrian military realize that they are no match for the Turkish Armed Forces.

[Guy Whitey Corngood]

5. He always struck me as kind of a light weight compared to his dad ( not that I held daddy in

high regard). So I think you're right. The last thing they need to do is open up a new front with one of the regional powers.

[htuttle]

9. He's a dentist and ophthalmologist

He would still be one if his older brother hadn't died in a car crash.

[Guy Whitey Corngood]

10. That's right! I forgot about that. Jimmy Carter had some hope for him. Oh well. nt

[leveymg]

4. The mortar incidents were actually not very significant. Turkey is overdramatitizing this.

Last edited Mon Oct 8, 2012, 03:09 PM - Edit history (2)

What actually seems to be going on behind the scenes is an impasse and lull in the fighting, and some sort of negotiated outcome may be emerging. Reports indicate the following:

* Syria has offered a 6 mile wide DMZ zone so this sort of thing doesn't recur.

* An Iranian brigade of about 500 al Quds troops has left Damascus and returned to Iran.

* After the delivery of 14.5 mm guns, some MANPADS and a large stock of RPGs to the rebels, the US has apparently applied some pressure to cut off further heavy weapons flows.

* Defections by officers and troops of the Syrian Army have slowed to a trickle.

* Defense Secretary Panetta has announced that the US does not want to see the disintegration of the Syria armed forces, given the dangers of al-Qaeda and other Jihadi foreign fighters gaining access to weapons and influence over the opposition in Syria, threats underlined by the attack on the US consulate in Libya and the loss of some 15,000 Libyan MANPADs that remain unaccounted for and presumably in the hands of various militia groups or on the black market. A video posted on August 27 shows a Syrian military helicopter shot down by what appears to be a missile:

(see 00:29-00:40)

* Hillary Clinton is departing as Secretary of State.
* President Obama didn't mention Syria once in his address to the DNC.

Either there is some sort of resolution in the works, or all shit is going to break loose across the whole region after the election - the latter would be the worst-case scenario.

[glacierbay]

6. This sounds hopeful

I sure hope it doesn't escalate any further.
Thx for the info.

[arewenotdemo]

11. I'd be elated to see Clinton step down.

Though Obama is of course ultimately responsible for supporting both Libyan and Syrian rebels.

At least we wouldn't be tortured with any more of these....

[riderinthestorm]

13. I'm worried about Turkey's overreaction. That doesn't bode well imho.

I'm also deeply uncomfortable with the demand that Syria agree to a 6 km wide buffer zone for a rebel base. That's also some terrible news.

The evolution of this crisis is pretty awful and its current trajectory is disturbing.

[leveymg]

15. The FSA already operates freely inside Turkey, so it really wouldn't change anything

except to remove a trigger for possible intervention by the Turkish military.

Erdogan's rhetoric is disturbing. All those dozens of sackings and arrests of Turkish military officers a couple months now make sense.

[bobthedrummer]

21. Yep, I concur about the possible "worst case scenario"-as if it isn't already that way for the dead.

K&R

[Spitfire of ATJ]

7. What's sad is other countries in the region can't mobilize without a freakout from Israel.

Imagine Egypt deciding "enough is enough" and mobilizing an actual army including tanks by ships to cross the Mediterranean and Israel just passively allowing that strike force to do their thing. They would freak out over an air assault.

[glacierbay]

8. And why would Israel go on alert with such a mobilization?

It's not like they've been attacked my Egypt or Syria before. But I think in a scenario like that, Egypt would consult with the US and Israel to let their intentions be known so that their would be no misunderstandings.
I would imagine that the US and Israel would watch very closely but there wouldn't be a freakout.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

12. "there wouldn't be a freakout."

Okay,....a fake freakout....

[Kolesar]

14. ^Best dry humor today...

:ha ha:

[Arctic Dave]

17. Syria would sink anything that had military equipment on it.

They do have an airforce.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

18. They'd try. Egypt has an air force too.

The point is that countries in the region are too self absorbed. Even the ones who have freed themselves from dictators act like they can't do a group hug.

[Arctic Dave]

19. Self absorded? Not likely.

Americans are self absorbed, the ME is thousand different factions with a long history. Even before dictators.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

20. Exactly. People in a domestic disputes rarely double date.

[lovuian]

22. turkey is going to send in troops instead of America

but it also means Turkey will be showing who side it supports...the American one

[Socal31]

23. Was there ever a question?

They really don't have a choice, they signed on the dotted line and are part of an alliance that includes major Nuclear powers.

Restraint needs to be shown by all sides. I really hope we learned our lesson in Libya. "The devil you know....."

[Nihil]

24. Why should Libya be different ...

> I really hope we learned our lesson in Libya. "The devil you know....."

... than any of the preceding foul-ups in the neverending war sponsored by Uncle Sam?