Obama 348, Romney 190: UAH astrophysicist, who got it right twice before, predicts electoral results

[trof]

Source: Huntsville Times

HUNTSVILLE, Alabama -- There is little suspense left in our presidential horse race, even in most of the so-called swing states, says astrophysicist and statistician Wes Colley.

The way he measures the poll data and his deceptively simple median method, which have correctly predicted the last two presidential elections, show President Obama has locked up Ohio and Virginia and cemented a small, but stable lead in Florida.

Bottom line: Obama is well on his way to re-election.


Read more: http://blog.al.com/breaking/2012/10/uah_astrophysicist_and_college.html#incart_river_default

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[Berlum]

1. Did he factor in the Mormon White Horse Prophecy?

or does he consider non-rational input to be irrelevant?

h

[Robb]

3. Mitch brought a sword to a lightsaber fight.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

9. no, a tipped epee.

The ability to swing from one direction to another so quickly is Romney in a nutshell.

[LunaSea]

2. Huntsville

Still my favorite bright spot in the old home state!

I wondered if "median method" referred to the "Copernicus method" coined by Dr. Richard Gott, and sure enough, there he was in the article. A fascinating (and really nice guy, and another southerner, fyi, trof..) who I've never known to be wrong.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J._Richard_Gott

[daybranch]

4. Romney only a symbol

of what the party has become. He is a loser and if we do not get rid of the republican extremists in the Senate and especially the House we wil be the losers too. Vote a straight dem ticket and support dem candidates with your money, your phone calls, and your door knocks etc. everywhere. Vote against gerrymandering and for progressive measures like Issue 2 in Ohio to give the country back to our citizens. Obama Biden, Sherrod Brown, Sharon Neuhardt.

[INdemo]

6. Agree....all the corporate mafia needs is a puppet

like Mitt in the White House..Take a look a G.W....perfect for the corporate cause.The corporate mafia stole two elections to have their puppet. And now,all the corporate power group needs is someone that responds when they pull the strings..And they have that with Mitt.
We have to somehow get rid of Citizens United..we cannot have this in our next election..period.

[mountain grammy]

5. Just wish I could cast my early vote and hibernate for the next month

but there is work to do here in swing state Colorado. The lies are flying fast and furious ahead of the debate. Where I live, lots of Rmoney signs.. ugh, but there are a few of us Obama folks and we're busy. People are "waking the fuck up."

[INdemo]

7. I watched the video with the Colorado voters making their way

to a Rmoney gathering.I thought it was just unbelievable at the hate being displayed by those Teabaggers...I never thought in my lifetime I would ever see this in our country.
...I remember the 60's and there were a few radicals that were certainly trying to defeat the purpose of our cause but I just don't remember anyone or any one group spreading the hate like we see today.Our message was to end the war and not about hatred.
....We cannot relax for one minute. They certainly aren't.

[liberal N proud]

8. The media is selling the story that it is a statistical tie.

They have to make the polls close to allow for a few switches in the voting process and wa-la you have your self a Romney win on Nov. 6th.

Watch it happen.

They are going to steal it.

[jaysunb]

10. This is also my prediction

and I'm not nearly as smart as Prof Colley

[happyslug]

11. Are we looking at another 1964 election?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1964

Here is the 1964 election by counties:



Johnson...won 61.1% of the popular vote, the highest won by a candidate since 1820. It was the sixth-most lopsided presidential election in the history of the United States in terms of electoral votes; in terms of popular vote, it was the fifth-most. No candidate for president since the election has equaled or surpassed Johnson's 1964 percentage margin of the popular vote.

Now, Nixon did surpass Johnson's Electoral Collage vote in 1972, but the popular vote was much closer. The County election map for 1972, for comparison purposes:



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1972

For comparison purposes look at the county map for 2008:



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2008