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brooklynite

(94,596 posts)
Wed Jul 15, 2020, 03:56 PM Jul 2020

Biden Widens Lead Over Trump To 15 Points In Presidential Race

Source: Quinnipiac Polling Institute

As coronavirus cases surge and states rollback re-openings, former Vice President Joe Biden opens up his biggest lead this year over President Donald Trump in the race for the White House. Registered voters back Biden over Trump 52 - 37 percent, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University national poll released today. This compares to a June 18th national poll when Biden led Trump 49 - 41 percent. Since March, Biden's lead had ranged from 8 to 11 percentage points.

Independents are a key factor behind Biden's widening lead as they now back him 51 - 34 percent, while in June, independents were split with 43 percent for Biden and 40 percent for Trump. There is also some movement among Republicans as they back Trump 84 - 9 percent, compared to 92 - 7 percent in June. Democrats go to Biden 91 - 5 percent, little changed from 93 - 4 percent in June.

"Yes, there's still 16 weeks until Election Day, but this is a very unpleasant real time look at what the future could be for President Trump. There is no upside, no silver lining, no encouraging trend hidden somewhere in this survey for the president," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.

Voters now give Biden a slight lead over Trump in a direct match up when it comes to handling the economy. Voters say 50 - 45 percent that Biden would do a better job handling the economy, a reversal from June when Trump held a slight lead 51 - 46 percent.

Read more: https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3666

31 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Biden Widens Lead Over Trump To 15 Points In Presidential Race (Original Post) brooklynite Jul 2020 OP
Good to hear but as we are all painfully aware dflprincess Jul 2020 #1
Not on this scale (although it doesn't mean we should let up)... regnaD kciN Jul 2020 #16
No. They are not meaningless. gristy Jul 2020 #17
I agree that they are not meaningless. Mickju Jul 2020 #24
Which is going to be the turd's exact argument/logic not_the_one Jul 2020 #28
Ignore it RandySF Jul 2020 #2
Maybe finally musclecar6 Jul 2020 #3
Imminent death has a way of focusing the mind. lagomorph777 Jul 2020 #13
Americans have a distaste for lying, cheating fascist Republicans Champp Jul 2020 #4
But they still vote them into office. LastLiberal in PalmSprings Jul 2020 #27
According to this poll, Biden is winning the white vote 49 - 43. RDANGELO Jul 2020 #5
Great! Now act like we're 2 points behind. Do not let up. tinrobot Jul 2020 #6
i agree!!! samnsara Jul 2020 #22
Go Joe! n/t Laelth Jul 2020 #7
And Biden hasn't even broke a sweat. Midnight Writer Jul 2020 #8
It may be that people want to avoid embarrassment in admitting they support wiggs Jul 2020 #9
About 1.3% error in the polls in 2016. lagomorph777 Jul 2020 #12
Right. I believe the vote totals were messed with, as well. Why wouldn't they? nt wiggs Jul 2020 #14
Not buying it awesomerwb1 Jul 2020 #10
"Voters now give Biden a slight lead over Trump ... when it comes to handling the economy" lagomorph777 Jul 2020 #11
Because, until COVID-19... regnaD kciN Jul 2020 #18
Before COVID-19, Trump had slightly slowed the Obama recovery, and set it up for debt disaster. lagomorph777 Jul 2020 #19
I am happy how the race is trending Penn Voter Jul 2020 #15
To give a sense of perspective... regnaD kciN Jul 2020 #20
Rasmussen is bullshit...and any aggregation that includes it will diminish Biden's lead falsely. Demsrule86 Jul 2020 #30
Silver weights and adjusts polls accordingly jcgoldie Jul 2020 #31
I like the Biden Widen IronLionZion Jul 2020 #21
Trump has no margin for error and still must convert several percent bucolic_frolic Jul 2020 #23
These posts are encouraging but we need to VOTE!!! AllyCat Jul 2020 #25
Don't rest until it is 100% to 0%. warmfeet Jul 2020 #26
the next question is azureblue Jul 2020 #29

regnaD kciN

(26,044 posts)
16. Not on this scale (although it doesn't mean we should let up)...
Wed Jul 15, 2020, 04:47 PM
Jul 2020

I can't envision a single scenario where a candidate could lose the national popular vote by 15 percent and still win the Electoral College. Beyond a certain point, a margin that large is going to inevitably be reflected in the swing states.

And I'll go farther. If we ever got a scenario where a candidate could lose by fifteen points and still get elected (especially if it was to a second term after being elected the first time despite losing the popular vote as well), it would be the end of the United States of America, because there's no way people could pretend it was still a representative democracy when you can have a person win near-dictatorial power despite losing the popular election over and over (especially if it's the third time in six cycles). The very validity of our governmental system would be destroyed in the eyes of the average citizen, and I think you'd see the beginning of the breakup of the union.

gristy

(10,667 posts)
17. No. They are not meaningless.
Wed Jul 15, 2020, 04:49 PM
Jul 2020

National poll results and projected electoral college results based on state polling are highly correlated.

 

not_the_one

(2,227 posts)
28. Which is going to be the turd's exact argument/logic
Wed Jul 15, 2020, 07:41 PM
Jul 2020

when he starts screaming RIGGED RIGGED.

The question is do we give him the chance to make it believable? We need to, as another poster so aptly put it, continue the BIDEN WIDEN!

musclecar6

(1,690 posts)
3. Maybe finally
Wed Jul 15, 2020, 04:03 PM
Jul 2020


People are finally starting to think their health is more important then their wallet if they still think that Trump has any business sense whatsoever after all his bankruptcy’s and other screw ups. He’s been such a disaster handling the pandemic it’s hard to imagine anyone doing a worse job.
27. But they still vote them into office.
Wed Jul 15, 2020, 06:59 PM
Jul 2020

Many PhD candidates will write their dissertations on this phenomenon.

wiggs

(7,814 posts)
9. It may be that people want to avoid embarrassment in admitting they support
Wed Jul 15, 2020, 04:29 PM
Jul 2020

Trump to a pollster but in the private polling place where their vote is private they can let their inner racist/trumphumper out. This happened to a degree in 2016.

lagomorph777

(30,613 posts)
12. About 1.3% error in the polls in 2016.
Wed Jul 15, 2020, 04:37 PM
Jul 2020

Hillary won the popular vote by almost the predicted margin. But Turd had Putin's help manipulating the exact vote tallies to flip the EC.

lagomorph777

(30,613 posts)
11. "Voters now give Biden a slight lead over Trump ... when it comes to handling the economy"
Wed Jul 15, 2020, 04:36 PM
Jul 2020

How does this make sense? Trump has driven the Obama 8-year recovery straight into the ditch; worse than the Great Depression. Why hasn't he been totally repudiated on the economy?

regnaD kciN

(26,044 posts)
18. Because, until COVID-19...
Wed Jul 15, 2020, 04:53 PM
Jul 2020

...the Dow was doing great and unemployment was way down. Now, we can all argue that this was just the continuation of the rebound in the economy from the Obama years (and we would be right to so argue), and that Trump was merely riding the wave that came along before him without doing much of anything positive himself, but it's standard operational procedure for the public to credit the sitting president when they feel their job is secure and their investments (including their home value, since that's where most Americans have the majority of their "investments&quot are improving. It may not be the most perceptive way of looking at things, but it's the way it's always been.

lagomorph777

(30,613 posts)
19. Before COVID-19, Trump had slightly slowed the Obama recovery, and set it up for debt disaster.
Wed Jul 15, 2020, 04:55 PM
Jul 2020

Once COVID hit, there was no margin left.

Penn Voter

(247 posts)
15. I am happy how the race is trending
Wed Jul 15, 2020, 04:41 PM
Jul 2020

however, we need to keep the pedal to the metal. We can celebrate when Joe Biden is inaugurated on January 20, 2021!

regnaD kciN

(26,044 posts)
20. To give a sense of perspective...
Wed Jul 15, 2020, 04:59 PM
Jul 2020

...in other recent polls, Ipsos has Biden +10, YouGov Biden +9., Morning Consult Biden +8.

Oh, and Rasumssen, which had Biden +10 a couple of days ago, now has Biden +3.

Overall, 538's aggregation of polls (which I'm looking at merely as an average, not as a prognostication) has Biden up by 9, 50.2% to 41.2%. A good, healthy lead, to be sure, but not quite the 15% we're seeing from this particular poll.

bucolic_frolic

(43,181 posts)
23. Trump has no margin for error and still must convert several percent
Wed Jul 15, 2020, 05:42 PM
Jul 2020

if he has any chance of winning. It's not an enviable position. He's so polarizing that voters' minds are hardened at this point.

I hope Biden gradually increases his campaigning, and let's it fly in October.

I also hope there are no debates. Trump would make it a nasty, angry, divisive hatefest. This rabble wing of the Republican Party has been hidden so long behind Main Street Republicans.

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