Biden Widens Lead Over Trump To 15 Points In Presidential Race
Source: Quinnipiac Polling Institute
As coronavirus cases surge and states rollback re-openings, former Vice President Joe Biden opens up his biggest lead this year over President Donald Trump in the race for the White House. Registered voters back Biden over Trump 52 - 37 percent, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University national poll released today. This compares to a June 18th national poll when Biden led Trump 49 - 41 percent. Since March, Biden's lead had ranged from 8 to 11 percentage points.
Independents are a key factor behind Biden's widening lead as they now back him 51 - 34 percent, while in June, independents were split with 43 percent for Biden and 40 percent for Trump. There is also some movement among Republicans as they back Trump 84 - 9 percent, compared to 92 - 7 percent in June. Democrats go to Biden 91 - 5 percent, little changed from 93 - 4 percent in June.
"Yes, there's still 16 weeks until Election Day, but this is a very unpleasant real time look at what the future could be for President Trump. There is no upside, no silver lining, no encouraging trend hidden somewhere in this survey for the president," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.
Voters now give Biden a slight lead over Trump in a direct match up when it comes to handling the economy. Voters say 50 - 45 percent that Biden would do a better job handling the economy, a reversal from June when Trump held a slight lead 51 - 46 percent.
Read more: https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3666
dflprincess
(28,079 posts)national polls are meaningless.
regnaD kciN
(26,044 posts)I can't envision a single scenario where a candidate could lose the national popular vote by 15 percent and still win the Electoral College. Beyond a certain point, a margin that large is going to inevitably be reflected in the swing states.
And I'll go farther. If we ever got a scenario where a candidate could lose by fifteen points and still get elected (especially if it was to a second term after being elected the first time despite losing the popular vote as well), it would be the end of the United States of America, because there's no way people could pretend it was still a representative democracy when you can have a person win near-dictatorial power despite losing the popular election over and over (especially if it's the third time in six cycles). The very validity of our governmental system would be destroyed in the eyes of the average citizen, and I think you'd see the beginning of the breakup of the union.
gristy
(10,667 posts)National poll results and projected electoral college results based on state polling are highly correlated.
Mickju
(1,803 posts)not_the_one
(2,227 posts)when he starts screaming RIGGED RIGGED.
The question is do we give him the chance to make it believable? We need to, as another poster so aptly put it, continue the BIDEN WIDEN!
RandySF
(58,900 posts)COVID and voter suppression will make it hard for Dems to vote. Keep pushing.
musclecar6
(1,690 posts)People are finally starting to think their health is more important then their wallet if they still think that Trump has any business sense whatsoever after all his bankruptcys and other screw ups. Hes been such a disaster handling the pandemic its hard to imagine anyone doing a worse job.
lagomorph777
(30,613 posts)Champp
(2,114 posts)Thank heavens
LastLiberal in PalmSprings
(12,586 posts)Many PhD candidates will write their dissertations on this phenomenon.
RDANGELO
(3,433 posts)If that holds up, that is huge.
tinrobot
(10,903 posts)samnsara
(17,622 posts)Laelth
(32,017 posts)-Laelth
Midnight Writer
(21,768 posts)wiggs
(7,814 posts)Trump to a pollster but in the private polling place where their vote is private they can let their inner racist/trumphumper out. This happened to a degree in 2016.
lagomorph777
(30,613 posts)Hillary won the popular vote by almost the predicted margin. But Turd had Putin's help manipulating the exact vote tallies to flip the EC.
wiggs
(7,814 posts)awesomerwb1
(4,268 posts)Probably Rs lying about who they'll vote for.
lagomorph777
(30,613 posts)How does this make sense? Trump has driven the Obama 8-year recovery straight into the ditch; worse than the Great Depression. Why hasn't he been totally repudiated on the economy?
regnaD kciN
(26,044 posts)...the Dow was doing great and unemployment was way down. Now, we can all argue that this was just the continuation of the rebound in the economy from the Obama years (and we would be right to so argue), and that Trump was merely riding the wave that came along before him without doing much of anything positive himself, but it's standard operational procedure for the public to credit the sitting president when they feel their job is secure and their investments (including their home value, since that's where most Americans have the majority of their "investments" are improving. It may not be the most perceptive way of looking at things, but it's the way it's always been.
lagomorph777
(30,613 posts)Once COVID hit, there was no margin left.
Penn Voter
(247 posts)however, we need to keep the pedal to the metal. We can celebrate when Joe Biden is inaugurated on January 20, 2021!
regnaD kciN
(26,044 posts)...in other recent polls, Ipsos has Biden +10, YouGov Biden +9., Morning Consult Biden +8.
Oh, and Rasumssen, which had Biden +10 a couple of days ago, now has Biden +3.
Overall, 538's aggregation of polls (which I'm looking at merely as an average, not as a prognostication) has Biden up by 9, 50.2% to 41.2%. A good, healthy lead, to be sure, but not quite the 15% we're seeing from this particular poll.
Demsrule86
(68,586 posts)jcgoldie
(11,631 posts)I would not dismiss his aggregate polls.
IronLionZion
(45,453 posts)bucolic_frolic
(43,181 posts)if he has any chance of winning. It's not an enviable position. He's so polarizing that voters' minds are hardened at this point.
I hope Biden gradually increases his campaigning, and let's it fly in October.
I also hope there are no debates. Trump would make it a nasty, angry, divisive hatefest. This rabble wing of the Republican Party has been hidden so long behind Main Street Republicans.
AllyCat
(16,189 posts)warmfeet
(3,321 posts)Even then .........
azureblue
(2,146 posts)How will Trump cheat? Not If but how? Time to figure that out and get ahead of it.