White House advisor says another coronavirus epidemic like NYC could change US mortality rate
Source: cnbc
Another big coronavirus outbreak like the one New York City is bracing for could dramatically change the death rate of COVID-19 in the U.S., White House coronavirus task force coordinator Dr. Deborah Birx said Friday.
White House officials earlier this week projected between 100,000 and 240,000 people will die from the coronavirus in the U.S. Birx said the mortality models are updated every night to take into account new data, which generally include how the disease is progressing in other countries, social distancing restrictions imposed by states and the rise in new infections.
The estimates currently project between 40,000 and 178,000 deaths, according to the data cited by Birx, who added that the average number of deaths is expected to be around 93,000.
All of that can be changed by our behaviors, and all of that can be changed in a different way if we dont follow those behaviors, Birx said.
Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/03/white-house-advisor-says-another-coronavirus-epidemic-like-nyc-could-change-us-mortality-rate.html
That is the second downward revision I heard about about, over the last couple of day ( along with the IHME at University of Washington numbers ). I am wondering what kind of data are fueling those more optimistic projections.
Nb: IHME model for the total death toll has been rather accurate for the first days of April : https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections it projects a total of 93000 death during this first wave.
nature-lover
(1,469 posts)Response to nature-lover (Reply #1)
elocs This message was self-deleted by its author.
OnlinePoker
(5,721 posts)bucolic_frolic
(43,176 posts)DENVERPOPS
(8,835 posts)She wants the notoriety of being on that stage for the worshiping she gets from all her evangelical crowd.
She knows the only way to stay on that stage is to be in lockstep with lardass's ever changing bullshit claims......so, she will do anything and say anything to remain in his good graces. She must have something he desperately wants, otherwise he would replace her with a twenty something with a major in plastic surgery.....
Bernardo de La Paz
(49,002 posts)So I don't see this as a lot of revisionism. I think it is more a case of tuning.
roamer65
(36,745 posts)Much lower.
greenjar_01
(6,477 posts)Relatively early shut downs with relatively compliant populations.
DENVERPOPS
(8,835 posts)for Florida. That is the state the qualified scientists are looking at, more than any other......
JustABozoOnThisBus
(23,350 posts)... how the virus will spread as the weather warms in the rest of the country.
The warm weather may attack the virus. And, the warm weather may cause more people to get out of the house and mingle.
scarytomcat
(1,706 posts)but when was it cold, it is never really gets cold in Fl. I see no slow down yet.
NickB79
(19,253 posts)The 93,000 dead are for the FIRST wave, projected to go into early summer. The second wave is expected to hit in the fall into the winter.
The 100,000-240,000 estimate is for the next 12 months, until we get a vaccine rolled out. If they're now saying 93,000 in the first wave, that blows the lower estimate out of the water.
DeminPennswoods
(15,286 posts)The model linked in the OP is at 0 by July.
NickB79
(19,253 posts)The Chinese, with months of additional infections and a massive nationwide lockdown, still aren't at zero deaths.
No one in their right mind would assume that a novel disease with no vaccine available could be brought to a zero death toll so quickly. It has become endemic, like a cold or flu. It will smolder for the summer, killing a few here and there, and become resurgent in the fall. Our hope is that testing and treatment options have improved by then.
modrepub
(3,496 posts)No one seems to know the assumptions and workings of whatever the white house is using to generate the death projections. Acknowledging and legitimizing any numbers from the white house without them revealing how they came up with the numbers is only feeding into their hype. NO ONE KNOWS WITH ANY CERTAINTY HOW THIS IS GOING TO END!
From: https://www.adn.com/nation-world/2020/04/03/experts-and-trumps-own-advisers-doubt-white-houses-coronavirus-death-estimate-of-up-to-240000/
...[T]he experts said they don't challenge the numbers' validity but said they don't know how the White House arrived at them....
DeminPennswoods
(15,286 posts)of data inputs on most, if not all, of the models.
But, iirc, the 250,000 deaths number came from a study by the Imperial College of London that was out a few weeks ago. Again, I seem to recall the study's authors amended that number downward given the social distancing initiative after the initial projection.
Marthe48
(16,970 posts)traitor's people are too busy making pap for the cult to swallow.
I go to WHO for updates.
I am personally terribly worried that the virus won't slow down or stop any time soon. I am on the phone talking to my friends and relatives. There is a lot of concern. Not surprisingly, it is concern for the already high death toll, the loss of jobs, the people who are going to work at essential jobs, the unsung heroes. There is outright grief for our country, the ideal. My daughter broke down when I mentioned jihad jarod commandeering supplies meant for certain states, or other countries. She said we are not like that.