Ohio moves to ‘Lean Obama’ on Fix electoral map

[Texas Lawyer]

Source: Washington Post (The Fix Blog)

In the wake of a new Washington Post poll that shows President Obama opening up an eight-point lead among likely voters in Ohio, along with a slew of other survey data — public and private — that shows the incumbent with a clear edge, we are moving the Buckeye State from “toss up” to “Lean Obama.”

With the change, Obama now has 255 electoral votes either solidly (196) in his camp or leaning (59) in his direction. He needs only 15 more to win a second term in six weeks time.

Read more: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/09/25/ohio-moves-to-lean-obama-on-fix-electoral-map/

---

I'd like to see this trend manifest down ballot in some tight House races.

[oliverrams1]

1. I can't wait to vote

[Texas Lawyer]

10. me too

[AngryOldDem]

2. Good. That's what the GOP gets for redistricting.

Just deserts.

The boundaries of some of those congressional districts in that state are just mind-boggling. I'm glad to see that it may all backfire on the Republicans.

[Texas Lawyer]

7. All of that right-wing gerrymandering gone to waste? I'll drink to that!

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

3. Why is it still "Lean Obama" with a "solid" 8-point advantage? Were it reversed, it would be

considered "RED"!

At any rate, we keep working like he's 8 points behind.

[leftyohiolib]

4. b/c ohio is controlled by repubs and the media is owned by them

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

5. Exactly. That was a rhetorical question. We do really need to continue to work hard.

The voter suppression stuff really scares me.

[Texas Lawyer]

6. Partly because the Washington Post has the President up 8%, but other polls have the President up 1%

and the average of recent polls puts the president up by 4 and a half %.

[liberal N proud]

8. With a republican governor and republican Secretary of State, they could very well steal the election

They have already done everything they can to disenfranchise or block voters and all they need to do is make it close enough to steal.

8 points is not comfortable enough to call Ohio safe!

[Texas Lawyer]

9. That should be a new category in poll analysis: solid Demorat, Lean Democrat, and stealable Democrat

we should identify those states where all the data indicates an easy win but there are voter role purges, voter id scam legislation, poll access disparities, and vote intimidation campaigns.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

15. True. With all the suppression, that's still way too close.

[Norbert]

12. Secretary of State may still pull some voter suppression.

I wouldn't put anything past Husted at this point.

I can't wait til this election but I also can't wait two years from now when Ohio will kick his ass to the curb.

[harmonicon]

11. I've been thinking that too.

Things are looking up for us in the presidential and senatorial races compared to what I feared just a few months ago, but I haven't heard a lot about the house. Anyone have a good link to those polls?

[Texas Lawyer]

13. Here is a rundown of different sources for House race analysis:

The sources run from the extremely-pessimistic-about-a-Dem-takeover, to the pessimistic, to the optimistic.

The Cook Report and Pollster and the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics are the most pessimistic (they suggest the Democrats will not take to House even if they win all toss-up races and also win more than half of the “lean Republican” races). Sources Cook Report (http://cookpolitical.com/house) (Solid D 157, Likely D 10, Lean D 16 {S+L+L D = 183}; Toss up 24; Solid R 190, Likely R 21, Lean R 17 {S+L+L R = 228}; Pollster (http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/house-outlook) (Strong D 168, Lean D 18 {S+L D = 186}; Toss up 18; Strong R 211, Lean R 211 {S+L R 231}); University of Virginia’s Center for Politics (http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/category/2012-house/).

Roll Call and the Rothenberg Report and Real Clear Politics are slightly less gloomy but still project almost no chance of a Democratic takeover of the House. Sources Roll Call (http://www.rollcall.com/politics/2012_race_rating_map.html) (Safe D 159, Likely D 10, Lean D 12 {S+L+L D = 181}; Toss up 28; Safe R 193, Likely R 14, Lean R 19 {S+L+L R = 226}); Rothenberg Report (http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/ratings/house); Real Clear Politics (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/house/2012_elections_house_map.html).

There is a nice side-by-side comparison at Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2012).

However, super-genius Sam Wang at the Princeton Election Consortium takes a more optimistic views of the numbers:

“Using all polls and median-based statistics to address issues of outlier data gives the median of D+4.0% that I gave. That translates to a narrow 16-seat Democratic majority in an election held today.”

http://election.princeton.edu/2012/09/20/house-outlook-for-2013-take-2/.

[harmonicon]

16. Thanks!

A majority would be amazing. I'm glad that at least some people who are smarter than me think it's possible, but I'm not getting my hopes up.

[Texas Lawyer]

17. We might find more House races in play than currently assumed with more CD-specific polling

[Kteachums]

14. Yeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!Hawwwwwwwwwww!!!!

I love that news!!!!