Coronavirus May Have Spread in U.S. for Weeks, Gene Sequencing Suggests
Source: NYT
By Sheri Fink and Mike Baker
March 1, 2020
Updated 1:55 p.m. ET
Researchers who have examined the genomes of two coronavirus infections in Washington State say the similarities between the cases suggest that the virus may have been spreading in the state for weeks.
Washington had the United States’ first confirmed case of coronavirus, announced by the C.D.C. on Jan. 20. Based on an analysis of the virus’s genetic sequence, another case that surfaced in the state and was announced on Friday probably was descended from that first case.
The two people live in the same county, but are not known to have had contact with one another, and the second case occurred well after the first would no longer be expected to be contagious. So the genetic findings suggest that the virus has been spreading through other people in the community for close to six weeks, according to one of the scientists who compared the sequences, Trevor Bedford, an associate professor at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center and the University of Washington.
Dr. Bedford said it was possible that the two cases could be unrelated, and had been introduced separately into the United States. But he said that was unlikely, however, because in both cases the virus contained a genetic variation that appears to be rare — it was found in only two of the 59 samples whose sequences have been shared from China, where the virus originated.
Read more: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/01/health/coronavirus-washington-spread.html
= new reply since forum marked as read
Or take the measures necessary to contain it. Those two sentences could mean anything, so I'll elaborate.
With the first word of a virus that can spread so easily while no symptoms are present there should have been lockdown. That guy getting off the plane? Might have sat next to somebody who gave it to him, but who himself doesn't know he's contracted the "illness" and won't for another week.
By the time the guy in the next seat over comes sick and they have to track down who he infected, *that* person is infectious and might have infected dozens of people.
And since that was occurring since *before* the first reported case, you'd have to be able to track everybody backwards in time for two, 4, 6, 8 weeks. Test them. And everybody they came into contact with, and those they contacted, and those *they* contacted. May as well shut down everything at that point. It might have been circulating in the US even before it was first reported in any noticeable way in China, and before it was determined it could be transferred by asymptomatic carriers. You don't check for things you don't suspect.
That's the level of competence we needed. Anything less is merely human incompetence. Then we're arguing about levels of competence, and that becomes a discussion of "how long did we drag out the process?" That's what's important: How long it takes for most to get infected. That determines the supplies required, hospital bed need, whether there'll be a vaccine in time, whether we find good palliative measures.
Those who screwed up screwed up massively *before* the first bit of politicking began, and the most serious screw ups (by which I mean "normal human behavior that doesn't involve precognition and omniscience"
happened in China. Weeks before the Congressionally increased CDC budget became a much-publicized decrease, for instance (although community preparedness funds were cut, it's still not like all government spending is necessarily just federal and just from the CDC--that's butt-covering excuse of an accusation).
welcome to DU!
