The U.S. economy added only 75,000 jobs in May amid bite from Trump's trade war

[BumRushDaShow]

Source: Washington Post

Hiring dipped in May, the Labor Department reported Friday, as firms cooled off on hiring amid the uncertainty and concern over President Trump escalating the trade war with China. The U.S. economy added 75,000 jobs in May, a significant pullback from 224,000 jobs added in April that is likely to heighten fears that the trade war is taking a greater toll. The unemployment rate remained at a five decade low of 3.6 percent.

Manufacturing has seen anemic job gains this year and was little changed in May, one of the clearest signs that Trump’s tariffs are having a negative impact on a part of the economy he has been trying to boost.

May marked the 104th straight month of job gains for the nation, a record streak that has helped many Americans including those with disabilities or criminal histories to find jobs. Many business leaders say finding workers is their top struggle, but they are not raising wages as fast as they were earlier this year.

The average hourly wage grew 3.1 percent in the past year, above the cost of living but well below the 4 percent growth experienced during the economic boom of the late 1990s. Workers and economists had hoped to see stronger wage gains this summer as unemployment remained low but wage gains appear to be stalling.

Read more: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/06/07/us-economy-added-only-jobs-may-amid-bite-trumps-trade-war/?utm_term=.661119bf7edf

---

Our favorite correspondents to fill in the details should be around shortly!

Original article and headline -

U.S. economy added 75,000 jobs in May as growth softens amid escalating trade war. Unemployment rate stayed at 3.6 percent.

By Washington Post Staff
June 7 at 8:33 AM

The slow job growth comes amid an escalating trade dispute between the United States and major trading partners.

This is a developing story. It will be updated.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/business/wp/2019/06/07/u-s-economy-added-75000-jobs-in-may-as-growth-softens-amid-escalating-trade-war-unemployment-rate-stayed-at-3-6-percent/?utm_term=.2570234d4a6d&wpisrc=al_news__alert-economy--alert-national&w

[Achilleaze]

1. Thanks a diaperload republicans

[OnlinePoker]

4. Don't worry, they'll say it's because the Democrats control the House.

Their base, even if they get turfed out of a job will eat that up.

[BumRushDaShow]

5. Under Obama, the RW pundits

and even many in the business media, considered anything under 250,000 jobs created/month as "weak", "anemic", "lackluster".

(of course they could counter - "Well it's 'full employment'".... )

But as a sidenote, there is something pretty disturbing going on "under the surface". I noticed just here in Philly, an increase in armed robberies and gang-related shootings... plus I saw a pretty contentious thread about the increased homelessness issue going on in California - notably L.A. - which as a warm-climate locale, tends to attract people in general, but then far too few can afford to live in or anywhere near the city.

So it's not just about "employment" but the income associated with it when you have builders continue to insist on building for the middle/upper middle classes (their claim being that they make little or no profit from building moderate-priced housing), resulting in a scarcity of affordable housing for the least among us. And with that scarcity forcing people into rentals, you end up with a landlord market, with the ability to charge out the wazoo due to the increased demand but limited supply (old fashioned supply/demand).

[watoos]

2. 75k is pretty bad,

I never doubted the UE numbers, or job growth numbers, any economic numbers. Now that we have a criminal president and criminal administration I don't even trust the labor department numbers.

I do know the cost of living went up 3.5% last year because my SS went up 3.5%.

[oldsoftie]

3. The slowdown was bound to start soon. We're almost at full employment as far as the numbers go

Trump WONT like this at all!
Because once it starts, it'll probably last into the election

[watoos]

7. Trump is bullying the Fed to lower interest rates.

[oldsoftie]

19. It still wont be enough to stop it. We arent that high right NOW

Wages are rising, not fast but they are rising. Which means at some point prices will also rise. Tariffs will raise prices. Home prices are too high, and 1/4-1/2 point cut wont make them THAT much more affordable when we're talking about 200-400k loans. Car prices are ridiculous, mostly because of our own egos. A rate cut wont mean much there, as most mfgs already have low to NO interest loans available.

We'll see, but i dont think the Fed can stop it

Funny thing is, he has always said the "obama economy" was because of "free money", and thats exactly what HE now wants!!

[watoos]

6. Trump artificially inflated the stock market

Shit, he gave corporations and the rich 1.5 trillion dollars. Companies took the free money and bought back stock and gave upper management raises.

When we have a Democratic president don't we usually talk about the deficit and the debt? Our debt is 22 trillion and the deficit is projected to be at least 1 trillion a year. Time to cut the military spending if they have money to throw away on a wall.

[bronxiteforever]

8. [phone]

[mahatmakanejeeves]

9. Links to earlier reports

Good morning. I was still wandering around the kitchen at 8:30 this morning. I'll add some stuff throughout the day.

Meanwhile:

[center]Past Performance is Not a Guarantee of Future Results.[/center]

Nonetheless, what is important is not this month's results, but the trend. Let’s look at some earlier numbers:

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in May 2019:

ADP private-sector job growth tumbles to a 9-year low in May

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in April 2019:

UPDATE: U.S. unemployment fell to 3.6 percent, lowest since 1969

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in April 2019:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 275,000 Jobs in April

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in March 2019:

UPDATE: U.S. added 196,000 jobs in March as economy shows signs of spring bounce

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in March 2019:

Private sector hiring falls to 18-month low, and manufacturing sheds jobs, ADP says

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in February 2019:

U.S. adds meager 20,000 jobs in February to mark smallest increase in 17 months

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in February 2019:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 183,000 Jobs in February

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in January 2019:

U.S. creates 304,000 jobs in January, unemployment rises to 4%

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in January 2019:

U.S. added 213,000 private-sector jobs in January, ADP says

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in December 2018:

Payroll employment increases by 312,000 in December; unemployment rate rises to 3.9%

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in December 2018:

U.S. adds most private-sector jobs in almost 2 years, says ADP

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in November 2018:

Payroll employment increases by 155,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged at 3.7%

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in November 2018:

U.S. adds 179,000 private-sector jobs in November: ADP

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in October 2018:

The U.S. economy added 250,000 jobs in October, unemployment stays at 3.7 percent

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in October 2018:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 227,000 Jobs in October 2018:

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in September 2018:

Unemployment rate declines to 3.7% in September; payroll employment increases by 134,000

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in September 2018:

U.S. adds 230,000 private-sector jobs in September: ADP

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in August 2018:

U.S. Added 201,000 Jobs in August; Unemployment Rate Steady at 3.9%

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in August 2018:

U.S. Firms in August Added Fewest Workers in 10 Months, ADP Says

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in July 2018:

Payroll employment increases by 157,000 in July; unemployment rate edges down to 3.9%

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in July 2018:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 219,000 Jobs in July

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in June 2018:

U.S. Added 213,000 Jobs in June; Unemployment Ticks Up to 4%

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in June 2018:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 177,000 Jobs in June

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in May 2018:

U.S. economy extends its hiring spree, with a better than expected 223,000 new jobs in May

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in April 2018:

U.S. adds 204,000 private-sector jobs in April, ADP report shows

[BumRushDaShow]

12. Good morning!

I hear ya about wandering around in the kitchen.

TGIF!

[smb]

10. Blast of Explosive Twitterrhea from Napoleon Boneyspurs in 5... 4... 3... nt

[mahatmakanejeeves]

11. White House statement:

ECONOMY & JOBS

Unemployment Still Near Historic Low; Robust Wage Growth Continues in May
June 7, 2019 3 minute read

Council of Economic Advisers

May’s Employment Situation Report highlighted the historically low unemployment rate, which remained at 3.6 percent in May—matching the lowest rate in almost 50 years (since 1969). This marks the 15th consecutive month where the rate has been at or below 4 percent. In addition the unemployment rate for Hispanics remained at 4.2 percent—matching the lowest rate since the series began in 1973. Among African Americans, the unemployment rate fell by 0.5 percentage points to 6.2 percent, nearing the historic low of 5.9 percent. The unemployment rate for those with some college or an associate degree declined by 0.3 percentage points to 2.8 percent—the lowest rate since March 2001. The unemployment rate for high school graduates who did not attend college remained at 3.5 percent, matching the lowest since July 2000. The U-6 unemployment rate, the broadest measure produced by Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) of unemployment and underemployment, reached 7.1 percent—the lowest rate since December 2000 as shown in the figure below.



Wages continued to rise in May as well. Nominal average hourly earnings rose by 3.1 percent over the past 12 months—the 10th straight month that year-over-year wage gains were at or above 3 percent. Prior to 2018, nominal average hourly wage gains had not reached 3 percent since April 2009.
....

Even though the payroll employment growth fell short of expectations, one month does not make a trend. Furthermore, the totality of this month’s jobs report—including strong wage growth, low unemployment rate, and the continuation of the longest consecutive streak of jobs gains—reflects the continued growth and strength of the United States labor market. Sustaining continued job growth with near record low unemployment will require bringing more individuals off the sidelines. Programs like the Pledge to America’s Workers, which will provide roughly 9 million new education and training opportunities over the next 5 years, are key tools for the continued health of the U.S. labor market.

[progree]

15. Black unemployment rate - up from 5.9% to 6.2% over the past 12 months

White House:

Among African Americans, the unemployment rate fell by 0.5 percentage points to 6.2 percent, nearing the historic low of 5.9 percent

Yerp, it's all how one spins it.

Black unemployment rate:
May 2018: 5.9%, May 2019: 6.2%
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000006

White unemployment rate:
May 2018: 3.5%, May 2019: 3.3%
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000003

[IronLionZion]

13. Dude's tax cuts were the dumbest idea

what a waste. We're going to wish we had that money available when the Trump recession hits.

And interest rates are still relatively low. The Fed won't have much room to cut to stimulate the economy.

All the stock market gains from Trump's presidency happened in 2017, still Obama's economy. 2018 and now half-way through 2019 we haven't seen much growth, just volatility.

[oldsoftie]

20. Even without the tax cuts, we still dont have any money. And we never WILL

Because so far, only Andrew Yang has mentioned the VAT. And thats the ONLY thing that will tax the trillions of untaxed income in this country & raise real money. All these programs that will raise X amount of dollars "over 10 years" come nowhere near whats actually needed.

[progree]

14. Job gains were zero: 75,000 job gains in May were cancelled out by combined downward revisions

of March and April

Total non-farm payroll jobs:

April in the report that came out May 3: 151,095,000
May in the report that came out today, June 7: 151,095,000

The job count increased by 75,000 in May, but March and April were revised down by a combined total of 75,000. So the net job gain in this report compared to last month's job report is exactly ZERO.

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for March was revised down from +189,000 to
+153,000, and the change for April was revised down from +263,000 to +224,000. With these revisions,
employment gains in March and April combined were 75,000 less than previously reported. (Monthly
revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last
published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.) After revisions, job gains have
averaged 151,000 per month over the last 3 months.

I'm busy looking through the entire report for other interesting statistics and anomalies http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

Found one: black unemployment rate: May 2018: 5.9%, May 2019: 6.2%, up 0.3%

(The White House was bragging about how it dropped from 6.7% to 6.2% from April to May )

[BumRushDaShow]

16. Thanks for that deeper dive into the data!

(my alliteration for the day )

[progree]

18. Thanks for the thread and the alliteration! n/t

[TexasBushwhacker]

17. Anecdotal but

I've been looking for a full time bookkeeping job since last fall and I've noticed salaries are coming DOWN in the job ads. That old "average salaries are up 3.1%" tells me the bulk of the money is going to the top 10%, just like it has been for 40 years. In the meantime, another one of my friends is going to have to take early Social Security just to have some income.

[Bengus81]

21. Starting June 21st 6,000 salaried Spirt aerosystems workers go from 40 hours to 32.

Because of the 737 Max. Big boys at Boeing will still rake in their millions but for thousands of others that work and sweat to build the aircraft they lose a days pay until late August--and who knows if that won't get extended.

But...they won't show up on some unemployment list.

[progree]

22. Well, some: U-6 and involuntary part-time workers (part-time workers who want full-time work)

but these are seldom mentioned in the media.

Part-Time Workers who want Full-Time Jobs (Table A-8's Part-Time For Economic Reasons)
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12032194

U-6 unemployment rate http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS13327709

[mahatmakanejeeves]

23. "Everything You Need to Know About the May Jobs Report"

From last Friday. Yes, I'm getting slow with this stuff.

Economists project that the unemployment rate held steady at 3.6%—a nearly 50-year low. Follow our coverage of the May jobs report.

Link to tweet

U.S. Adds 75,000 Jobs in May, Well Below Expectations
Last Updated Jun 7, 2019 at 9:48 am ET

The unemployment rate held at 3.6%, a nearly 50-year low, while wages grew 3.1% from a year earlier, also falling below expectations.

Key Takeaways From the May Jobs Report

Thanks for joining us on this Friday for our coverage of the jobs report. To read more, please check out our main story from the jobs report and markets coverage. Here are our key takeaways from the report:

• The fewer-than-expected 75,000 jobs created in May adds to investors’ concerns about slowing economic growth. The softer jobs data, coupled with heightened global trade tensions could spur the Federal Reserve toward easing monetary policy. Bets on lower interest rates drove stocks higher again Friday.
• Although the unemployment rate held steady at its lowest level in nearly 50 years, a miss on wage growth and downward revisions to March and April are also stoking fears that the U.S. economy is slowing more quickly than expected in the second quarter.
• Some analysts cited a slowdown in the services sector as a worrisome trend that could bolster bets on rate cuts. Sectors that were little changed for hiring last month included mining, construction and manufacturing, another negative for those monitoring signs that trade tensions are hurting the economy.
• Today’s report increases investors’ focus on inflation, industrial production and retail sales figures next week. Industrial production and retail sales fell unexpectedly in April, and more downbeat data points could lead to further downgrades of economic growth estimates.

-- Amrith Ramkumar, Jessica Menton

[BumRushDaShow]

24. Thank you!

Sometimes ya need a "first Friday of the month" break...