Manchin weighs bid for West Virginia governor in 2020

[brooklynite]

Source: Politico

Just five months off the race of his life, Joe Manchin is mulling a run for governor in 2020 against GOP Gov. Jim Justice.

The Democratic senator said in an interview Thursday that he’s once again “thinking about” running for the “best job in the world”: governor of West Virginia.

“I think about it every minute of every day. Now, thinking about it and doing it are two different things,” Manchin said. “I’ll make a decision this fall sometime. I don’t think there’s any hurry at all.”

Manchin narrowly won reelection last year against GOP Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, a 3-percentage-point victory in a state President Donald Trump won by 42 points in 2016. Manchin, who already served as West Virginia’s governor from 2005 to 2010, largely relied on his retail politicking, help from Democratic outside groups and an aisle-crossing record to defeat Morrisey.


Read more: https://www.politico.com/story/2019/04/05/manchin-governor-west-virginia-1257778

[padah513]

1. Makes taking the senate a bit more difficult

But maybe there are other pathways. McConnell's underwater at home. Somewhere in the high 30's. Man what a prize that would be.

[Polybius]

7. It's already difficult

Doug Jones is running an extremely tough race.

[BumRushDaShow]

11. There is a possibility to pick up another seat in Arizona

if Mark Kelly runs against McSally (or some other GOP candidate) in the 2020 special election to fill out the remaining 2 years of McCain's seat (where the new term comes up in 2022). McSally had lost to Sinema for Flake's seat but then was appointed to replace Kyle who was temporarily appointed to McCain's seat.

[madville]

22. That Alabama seat is likely a lose

The GOP could come out of 2020 gaining a seat or two, especially with Trump on the ticket.

[pstokely]

25. how many other blood red state dems are up?

?

[watoos]

2. I smell a rat,

This smells the same as when SC justice Kennedy announced his retirement. It will be an extremely difficult battle for a Democrat to win a Senate seat in WV. I could understand this move if Manchin was at the end of his term but he is at the beginning of his term. MF45 has me paranoid, I don't put anything past his corrupt administration.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

3. That's for sure!!

Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[maxsolomon]

9. Manchin just won a 6-year term

Last edited Fri Apr 5, 2019, 06:44 PM - Edit history (1)

He could:
1. Run, lose, and stay in the Senate until 2024.
2. Run, win, and appoint a Dem to serve out his term. Or until 2022. Not sure which; I don't live near the "greatest job in the world."

[lagomorph777]

10. Thanks for the encouraging thoughts!

Manchin's pretty far to my right, but in WV, we probably have to settle, and the options you lay out are reasonable.

[BumRushDaShow]

12. This is where Democrats definitely miss

a Jay Rockefeller IV (or dare I say, even Robert Byrd).

[dubyadiprecession]

4. Many have complained of Manchin being a Dino...

Any Democrat that holds office in a red state walks a tightrope of vulnerability.
If we didn’t have him as at least a number in our ranks than West Virginia’s automatic default position would be, to elect a republican.

I certainly hope he can be persuaded by the DNC to hold off on such a decision until after he completes his current term.

[moose65]

5. Well, we can kiss that Senate seat goodbye if he becomes Governor again

I know there's no love for Manchin around here, but as long as he has a D by his name, he helps us in the numbers game. If he runs for governor and wins, we can say goodbye to that Senate seat for a long, long, time. West Virginia was once one of the most Democratic states in the country, but they've been taken over by the Cult of Trump.

[Sucha NastyWoman]

6. We are going to miss him

When (if?) he’s gone.

[jgmiller]

8. He wouldn't need to resign to run

He would just need to resign the senate if he won and then he would make an appointment to fill the vacancy. WV doesn't seem to have a special election law for the US Sentate so that appointee would serve the remainder of his term which would end in 2024. Presumably he would appoint an democrat.

[pstokely]

16. but would he resign to run?

and if he's still in the senate after 2020 and the Dems gain it by 51-49 or 50-50 with a VP tiebreaker, could he leave the Dems?

[bornskeptic]

21. WV does have a special election law. Manchin won a special election

to fill Robert Byrd's seat in 2010. Manchin was governor at the time. He appointed a temporary replacement in July, and then entered and won the special election himself in November. I think that if he does run for governor and win, he would appoint a replacement through 2022 when there would be a special election to fill out the remaining two years of the term.

[pstokely]

24. but would he resign from the senate to run for WV Gov?

?

[DeminPennswoods]

13. Dems keep running centrist or conservative Dems

because they think Rs will vote an eratz R except they always go for the real thing. But if Dem were to run a Sanders or AOC style populist, he or she likely would win.

[maxsolomon]

14. In WV?

Name the person who fills that bill in WV.

[bornskeptic]

20. Paula Uean Swearengin

Environmental activist and Bernie Sanders supporter

She ran in the primary against Manchin in 2018. Manchin got 70% of the vote.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paula_Jean_Swearengin

[maxsolomon]

26. Cool, hope he appoints her.

nt

[Socal31]

17. This is not the case.

The mid-term success was partly due to tailoring the candidate to the interests of their constituency, and then pushing it to the left. Conor Lamb is an example where a AOC-type candidate would have been crushed.

[DeminPennswoods]

18. Not exactly

I'm in the largest land part of Lamb's district that usually votes R. He did not win here, Rothfus did. The West and South Hills areas of Allegheny County are what won it for Lamb. Interestingly, unabashed progressive governor Tom Wolf and his even more progressive lt gov, John Fetterman, did win here by 8 pts.

In the 2018 Dem primary here, Fetterman, by far and away the most liberal candidate of the 5 person field, got 71% of the vote. It was the only contested primary race on the ballot.

There is an appetite right now for populist candidates. There was in 2016 as well. It's why both Trump and Sanders did so well. Just the other day, I heard about a study or poll that showed Trump voters would also be Sanders voters. Both men touch on the same themes, just from opposite ends of the political spectrum. Dems should ignore this at their peril.

[Socal31]

19. Well I know when to retreat, so I will not attempt to contradict you on your district.

But I do remember Lamb being centrist with 2A rights, and his military background, having cross-over appeal. That is what I was basing my admittedly shallow analysis on.

But when Joe Biden is +8 after the most potentially negative press-cycle he is going to face, I will remain cautious on that line of thought.


"Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has grown less popular in New York – even among Democrats – following Amazon’s decision to scrap its planned offices in Queens.

Thirty-one percent of registered voters in the state view the freshman House Democrat favorably, while 44 percent have an unfavorable view, according to a Siena College poll released Monday. In January, 34 percent of New York voters viewed Ocasio-Cortez favorably, versus 29 percent who had an unfavorable opinion, a Quinnipiac University poll found."

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/19/aoc-approval-rating-falls-after-amazon-deal-collapse-as-trump-hammers-democrats-over-socialism.html

[DeminPennswoods]

23. Lamb is definitely a more centrist, pragmatic kind of Dem, but

he also ran as an "FDR Democrat" and on protecting and expanding the social safety nets of social security, medicare and medicaid. It's no coincidence that Pelosi has ensured Lamb's first bills are about protecting and expanding social security. Lamb also supports unions. He is more in Bob Casey's mold than republican-lite.

It's been rumored that lt gov Fetterman has his eyes on Toomey's seat in 2022, so that will be a test of how well a true lefty Dem does if it happens.

[Jersey Devil]

27. How would this change anything in 2020?

Manchin doesn't have to resign his Senate seat to run for governor. If he wins he gets to appoint a Dem to take his Senate seat. For how long I don't know, but it would not affect the Senate outcome in 2020. If he loses he goes back to the Senate.