Trump administration doubles estimate of shutdown cost to economy from original forecast: Source

[Julian Englis]

Source: CNBC

The Trump administration now estimates that the cost of the government shutdown will be twice as steep as originally forecast.

The original estimate that the partial shutdown would subtract 0.1 percentage point from growth every two weeks has now been doubled to a 0.1 percentage point subtraction every week, according to an official who asked not to be named.

The administration had initially counted just the impact from the 800,000 federal workers not receiving their paychecks. But they now believe the impact doubles, due to greater losses from private contractors also out of work and other government spending and functions that won’t occur.

If the shutdown lasts the rest of this month, it could subtract a sizable half a percentage point from gross domestic product, the official said.

Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/15/source-white-house-believes-shutdown-will-be-twice-as-costly.html

[UpInArms]

1. And this ...

On the other hand, Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, believes the combination of the shutdown and the tendency of the first quarter to be statistically weaker than the other three means growth could turn negative. "If the shutdown were to last through the whole quarter, we would look for an outright decline in first quarter GDP," Shepherdson wrote in a report.

Ironically, economists will lack at least some of the high-frequency data that might show the shutdown's impact because of the shutdown itself. Several key economic indicators are not being published because government data collectors and number crunchers have been furloughed. While labor reports are being issued, the December retail sales report — the most important of the year because it includes Christmas sales — will not be issued this Wednesday.

No GDP report?

That makes it highly unlikely that the government will be able to issue the fourth-quarter GDP report due Jan. 30th. A BEA official could not say when or whether the GDP report can be issued. "There is no way for us to know until we get back and evaluate all the various data sources that go into the advance estimate of GDP," said the official.

[Achilleaze]

2. republicans continue to piss on America

And the kremlin continues to applaud their submissive republican comrades.

[watoos]

3. Those Trump tax cuts for the rich need 3.5-4.5-5% GDP to pay for itself.

The deficit/debt is going to sky rocket. Look out Medicare, Medicaid, and SS.

[NewJeffCT]

4. I'd say even higher

probably 4-5% GDP consistently for several years, which is next to impossible.

[riversedge]

9. Well, seems the bright side is that Trump will not be able to brag--but bad for our economy.

....While labor reports are being issued, the December retail sales report — the most important of the year because it includes Christmas sales — will not be issued this Wednesday.

[GusBob]

5. As Bloomberg reported its exponential

The longer it goes on the costs pile up

[dalton99a]

6. The work of a traitor

[elmac]

7. I think wall street loves a good, long shutdown

They represent corporations who do not like to pay taxes, hate regulations and who's profits are not tied to the US consumer. They are short term thinkers but they are not prepared for the shit show economic crash that is about to happen.

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

8. And I'm sure they're proud of it.