Democrats Regain Midterm Momentum In Final Days

[DonViejo]

Source: PoliticalWire




October 30, 2018 at 7:22 am EDT By Taegan Goddard

“The Republican Party base has been electrified by Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation hearings and a campaign blitz from President Donald Trump. But the burst of enthusiasm has not reversed the trajectory of the midterms for the House GOP, which remains on the verge of losing its majority next week,” Politico reports.

“Some Republicans deep in Trump country have regained ground. But the handful of bright spots have been outweighed by a tidal wave of Democratic spending and voter support in the closing weeks of the midterm election, according to public and private polling, interviews with strategists from both parties and a Politico analysis of TV spending figures. In recent days, House Republicans have rushed to fortify a surprise collection of GOP-held districts in a half-dozen states that were never expected to be competitive.”

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Read more: https://politicalwire.com/2018/10/30/democrats-regain-momentum-in-final-days-before-midterms/

[watoos]

1. Who the fuck says the Republican base

has been electrified by Kavanaugh? Politico? Prove it. I say more Democrats have been electrified to turn out the vote because of the Kavanaugh shit show farce.

One thing that the GOP, and obviously Politico, can't factor in the polls, UNLIKELY VOTERS. Many polls are going to be way off this election because Democrats who previously have been unlikely to vote are going to show up big.

Be wary of fake polls too people, they are only hail Mary passes meant to discourage us.

Be a part of history, be a part of the Blue Tsunami, I can't wait to vote.

[getagrip_already]

3. thats true in some states.. others?

I see this applying in TX, where beto has elecrified an otherwise sleepy dem base, and is bringing out a lot of unlikely voters as well. Plus, he has a good shot at a lot of drawing a lot of republicam woman over. But, R's are turning out in high numbers along with dems.

Other states, not so much. And in states like FL, republicans are also turning out in large numbers.

I'm hoping this is a blue wave, but it may just be a purple tide.

Message: gotv - EVERYWHERE. Leave no vote behind.

[watoos]

5. It's hard to prove a negative isn't it?

Here's what I'm saying, historically a higher % of Democrats have stayed home than Republicans, Republicans vote at a higher %. I'm saying those Democrats who traditionally stayed home are going to vote Nov. 6th. There aren't as many Republicans who stay home.

[getagrip_already]

7. can't tell much at this point unfortunately.....

All we have to go on is polling and EV results. But those EV numbers are up for both R's and D's in the states that are reporting them. It looks like overall turnout will be somewhere between 2010 and 2016. We are already beyond 2014 numbers.

In states like FL, the R vote count is still ahead of the D, so they are turning out also. The thing you can't tell is to what extent are these new voters, and to what extent they are voters who are voting early instead of on ED.

All in, I'm sure I feel a lot better about the elections, even some senate ones, than the gop does. But we still need every vote, especially new and infrequent voters.

[watoos]

8. Most if not all of the polls

that I have seen are for likely voters, and that makes sense. I am saying this is not a normal election. I am saying, and hoping, that unlikely voters help swing the election for Democrats.

There also have to be many of Republicans who are still registered Republican who are going to vote Democratic. Pollsters are going to found wrong in many races.

[getagrip_already]

9. agreed.....

The tea leaves will be hard to read this cycle. The pollsters keep saying they got this though. I just don't believe it entirely.

In the end you can fill one hand with hope, and the other with votes, and see which comes out ahead.......

[DonViejo]

4. Why not go read the full article at Politico (link in the second last word of first paragraph)..

then you can answer your own questions.

[bucolic_frolic]

2. October 30 and Democrats have momentum?

This is really really really good news. How long has it been since you heard THAT???

[watoos]

6. This is going to be a hard election for the pollsters.

How many of those Republicans who are early voting are Steve Schmidts and Nicole Wallaces?

[DeminPennswoods]

10. Two thoughts

One, the pundits have been in "horse race" mode now for weeks. This is CYA.

Two, I believe the synagogue shooting, along with the magabomber, has truly shocked most Americans. They see what Trump's GOP's rhetoric has wrought. It's real. People are dead. This is unlike anything I've seen since Newtown. I think it's Trump's Waterloo, tbh.