Brazil election 2018: exit polls show first-round victory for far-right candidate Bolsonaro

[sandensea]

Source: The Guardian

When exit poll results were announced, putting Jair Bolsonaro well ahead of Fernando Haddad (with 45% of the vote to Haddad's 28%), the crowd celebrated, chanting "Lula thief!" and "Yes to him!"

Supporters remained confident of a first-round win despite an IBOPE exit poll showing Bolsonaro with 45%.

Things are moving fast here and 68% of the vote has already been counted. It looks like Bolsonaro is just going to miss out on the 50% of the vote he needed to win a majority in the first-round and secure a first-round victory, which means he and Haddad will face off again in a second round of voting on 29 October.

Behind Bolsonaro in the polls is Haddad, a former So Paulo mayor and 55-year-old intellectual. He took over as the PT candidate after Lula da Silva was ruled ineligible to run, due to the fact he is in jail. Haddad is promising a return to the days of economic boom enjoyed under Lula, who was president from 2003 to 2011.

Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2018/oct/08/brazil-election-2018-polls-close-after-chaotic-and-unpredictable-campaign-live

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Fascist candidate Jair Bolsonaro (left) will face off with Worker's Party candidate Fernando Haddad (middle).

Democratic Labor Party candidate Ciro Gomes (right), who received 14% of the vote, may prove pivotal in deciding the winner of the upcoming, October 28 runoff.

[sakabatou]

1. Seems the world is turning right

[sandensea]

3. That's how big business likes it

They've tired of having to share in the decision-making with anyone, and want governments that are so extreme no reform, no matter, how modest, will be possible.

I hope for Brazil's sake they reconsider in the upcoming second round on October 28; they only have the current train wreck in neighboring Argentina to look at, if they want to know how electing a far-right con man could look like.

[C Moon]

11. With the help of Putin and Russian oligarchs

[Fred Sanders]

2. First round hollow victory since in second round the DLP candidate is going to not go for

the fascist and hopefully the entire electorate wakes up and votes in the final round.

Good system.

[sandensea]

4. I hope you're right.

They only have the current train wreck in neighboring Argentina to look at, if they want to know how electing a far-right con man could look like.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/110863070

[Fred Sanders]

5. Thanks for the link...looks like a huge Ponzi scheme with the debt refinancing cycle collapsing.

Live by foreign capital, die by foreign capital vulture funds.

America essentially has the same Ponzi scheme, the huge difference is the Feds paper is used by commerce world wide.

[sandensea]

6. Exactly.

Unlike Argentina and most other countries, the Fed can paper over almost any bankster heist; 2008 proved that.

And thank goodness for that; with all the radicalized gun humpers around, it might have descended within a couple of years into a Mad Max scenario had the Fed not been able to do so.

[Tiggeroshii]

7. Is haddad more likely to win in a runoff?

This is terrible news...

[sandensea]

9. Good question, Tiggeroshii.

My impression is that, while this election has become Bolsonaro's to lose (he did come within 4% of winning outright tonight), Haddad still has a chance. But no room for error - not with his 29% showing.

Recent polling for the runoff has had them both weaving in and out of a narrow lead, so a lot will depend on what the minor candidates - the ones eliminated tonight - decide to do.

And none more so than center-left candidate Ciro Gomes, who came in third with 12.5%. He almost certainly wouldn't endorse Boldonaro under any circumstances - but it remains to be seen if he'll endorse Haddad.

If Gomes issues a Pontius Pilatesque "vote your conscience" statement, then many of his voters will stay at home, and Bolsonaro wins.

Voting is compulsory in Brazil (hence the 71% turnout tonight); but it's not strictly enforced, and staying home would thus be an option for many.

In a nutshell, then, I'd say it's mostly up to Ciro Gomes. Question is: Will he let petty, 10-year old grudges against the Worker's Party lead him to wash his hands, or will he rise to occasion?

We shall see.

[Blue_Tires]

8. Looks like Greenwald will need another leftist paradise

to build his new ivory tower...

It is amusing to see Glenn all woke now about fascist demagogues after being in bed with Trump/Putin for three years...

Mark my words, if the fascist wins, then GG will accuse Washington of doing everything that Russia did to us in 2016.

[sandensea]

10. Make no mistake though: Cheeto has an oar in this one.

Bolsonaro is where he is thanks to one thing: the railroading of former President Lula da Silva.

da Silva, as you may know, was the clear favorite going into this election - which polls showed he would have won in a landslide.

The judge who led the kangaroo court against him, Sergio Moro, has flewn frequently to Washington during the trial, and we know from Wikileaks - plus decades of history itself - that U.S. embassies take a very active interest in the local politics of Latin American countries - particularly the more important ones like Brazil, Mexico, and Argentina.

Cheeto was no doubt very pleased with da Silva's railroading - all the more so after what happened tonight. He's definitely looking forward to meting Bolsonaro, and you better believe he's instructed the embassy in Brasilia to help make it happen to whatever extent they can.

[Judi Lynn]

12. Good people hate it when this happens. It always has a lot of US support, they find out later.

As it's always done covertly, surreptitiously, the public usually doesn't know about it until the documents are declassified and surrendered much later through the Freedom of Information Act, but it DOES get revealed. The information gets exposure, in spite of the furious work attempted by right-wing fascist trolls to keep denying it.

We weren't suprised when the close-up photographs of the "attack" on Bolsonaro vanished from the face of the earth within hours, apparently. There is no reason to believe the photographer is still alive, either.

They really snatched those images immediately. I really, really hope a lot of people saw them, in spite of their brief public appearance. Will never forget the evidence that is STILL floating around somewhere. Talk about a "false flag" operation.....

Thank you for starting this thead today. It's greatly appreciated.

[sandensea]

13. And you thank you for your great insights, Judi.

That stunt of his was a real success, judging form last night's results.

The fiend even managed to worm his way out of appearing in last week's debate (the doctors themselves said he was fine).

Bolso's getting 46% of the vote means Haddad has a real uphill battle if he's to win that runoff - but it could happen if, say, hard evidence that the stabbing was, indeed, false-flag in nature came out.

Three weeks is a small eternity in politics, as you know.

Thanks as always for reading and sharing your thoughts. I trust all is well in your new neighborhood, Judi, and that you've had a restful weekend.

Happy Columbus - or rather, Indigenous Peoples - Day.

[Judi Lynn]

18. The timing of his "vicious attack" was useful, wasn't it?

The fascist would have been spectacularly awful if he couldn't have ducked the debate. No doubt at all.

Have an excellent Indigenous People's Day, yourself, sandensea!





















Many more images by Edward S. Curtis (this was his life's work) :
https://tinyurl.com/ybuo4oak

Hope it'll be a great one!

[sandensea]

19. Beautiful. Thanks for sharing those.

I remember seeing Curtis' work in school years ago; but I admit I had forgotten about him.

Sepias and orotones transport you like no other type of photo can, I've always felt.

Thanks again.

[Blue_Tires]

26. Glenn will never implicate Donnie in anything

He'll make this Obama's fault somehow...

But truth be told, I *am* enjoying watching Greenwald shit his pants and point fingers at everyone but himself... I said a long time ago that karma was going to catch up to his stupid ass...

[sandensea]

28. True.

In the words of Marlon Brando: he could've been someone; he could have been a contender.

Instead he threw away what was becoming a legendary career in journalism, to become a Putin toadie - even when it goes against his most fundamental beliefs.

[Judi Lynn]

14. A look at the campaign proposals made by Brazil's Bolsonaro

Peter Prengaman, Associated Press Updated 11:38 pm CDT, Sunday, October 7, 2018

RIO DE JANEIRO (AP) — Far-right congressman Jair Bolsonaro won the first round of Brazil's presidential race Sunday, doing far better than polls predicted and coming just shy of an outright victory. In the weeks ahead of an Oct. 28 runoff against former Sao Paulo mayor Fernando Haddad, Bolsonaro's main proposals are sure to come under much scrutiny.

Here is a look at what Bolsonaro has promised to do if elected.

Bolsonaro has promised to carry out widespread privatizations in Latin America's largest economy aimed at giving a boost to recovery from one of the nation's worst recessions in decades. Bolsonaro has also said privatizations are necessary to eradicate the kind of state graft that has been rife in recent years. While the business community has largely coalesced around Bolsonaro because of these proposals, detractors have noted that as a congressman he often voted and espoused views that were the exact opposite.

SPENDING AND TAXES

Bolsonaro has said he would sharply cut spending to confront an expected budget deficit of US$39 billion next year. He has also promised to cut taxes and simplify the tax code, though he has not provided details. He has sent confusing signals. When economic adviser Paulo Guedes, a banker trained at the University of Chicago, recently floated bringing back a bank fee, Bolsonaro said Guedes had been quoted out of context and that there would be no new taxes.

CONFRONTING VIOLENCE

Bolsonaro, who waxes nostalgically about the country's 1964-1985 dictatorship, has said he wants to loosen gun laws to allow more people to be able to carry them in public. He has also said he would push to give police forces freer rein to shoot while on patrols. The idea of emboldening police, already responsible for high rates of shooting deaths, including Rio de Janeiro, has sent shock waves through poorer communities.

CULTURAL WARRIOR

Bolsonaro, who has a long history of offensive comments about women, blacks and gays, has repeatedly said he will return Brazil to "traditional values." While he hasn't specified what that might mean, many groups fear that he'll seek to cut racial quotas in universities and curb rights of minorities, such as transgender people, who recently gained the right decide what gender to put on their national identification cards.

More:
https://www.chron.com/news/world/article/A-look-at-the-campaign-proposals-made-by-Brazil-s-13289183.php

[sandensea]

16. "...he'll seek to cut racial quotas in universities and curb rights of minorities..."

He'd have to create a carve-out for his fellow white Brazilians then, because as anyone who's visited Brazil can tell you, they are very much a minority as well.

Thanks for valuable info, Judi.

When it comes to Latin America's right-wingers though, their platforms are as fickle and foggy as Bolsonaro's head after his capirinha benders.

[Judi Lynn]

15. As Misogynist, Homophobic Bolsonaro Advances to Run-Off in Brazil's Election, Critics Fear 'Genuine

Published on
Monday, October 08, 2018
by Common Dreams

As Misogynist, Homophobic Bolsonaro Advances to Run-Off in Brazil's Election, Critics Fear 'Genuine Fascist' Takeover
Jair Bolsonaro aims to bring about "the worst abuses of the kinds of dictatorships that summarily executed dissidents, that shut down media outlets, that closed congresses, that we thought was a thing of the past here in Latin America."

by Julia Conley, staff writer

Anti-fascist Brazilians expressed horror late Sunday as they watched the misogynist, racist former military officer Jair Bolsonaro advance toward a likely victory in the country's presidential race, days after hundreds of thousands of women and allies protested his extremist agenda.

Shocking journalists and poll-takers by unexpectedly winning 46 percent of the vote in the general election's first round, Bolsonaro now heads to a run-off scheduled for October 28. He will face former São Paulo Mayor Fernando Haddad of the Worker's Party (PT), who garnered just over 29 percent of the vote.

The election results stoked fears that under Bolsonaro's Social Liberal Party (PSL), Brazilians could soon be living under a military dictatorship like the ones that ruled the country for large portions of the 20th century—and which Bolsonaro has reminisced about during his campaign.

. . .

"You really don't have institutions the way you do in the U.S., like a strong Supreme Court or a kind of deep state of the CIA and the FBI or political parties that would constrain him in what he wants to do," Greenwald said. "And especially given how much popular support there now is behind him, there's a substantial part of the country that is genuinely terrified about what he intends to do, and intends to do rather quickly, and probably can do—namely, bringing back the worst abuses of the kinds of dictatorships that summarily executed dissidents, that shut down media outlets, that closed congresses, that we thought was a thing of the past here in Latin America but is now on the verge of returning to its most important and largest country."

More:
https://www.commondreams.org/news/2018/10/08/misogynist-homophobic-bolsonaro-advances-run-brazils-election-critics-fear-genuine

[sandensea]

17. Excellent find, Judi. To all that, I'd add economic policy concerns.

The ongoing train wreck in neighboring Argentina, where as you know voters elected another hard-right fast-talker on many of the same premises as Bolsonaro (albeit toned down).

Argentina's Macrisis should give any Brazilian voter pause before they cast a Bolso-ballot.

[appalachiablue]

20. Tropical Trump Close Up & Ugly

Starts 8:00 mins. Pure RW ideologue, Tropical Bigot & Jackass.

[sandensea]

21. If Brazil's voters want to know what could happen under Bolsonaro, they need only look to Argentina

Macri was elected three years ago on much the same platform Bolsonazi's running on (albeit toned down).

He promptly reneged on every single campaign promise (like Bolsonaro will), and instead deregulated trade and finance - leading to a debt bubble that imploded this April.

A "market darling" just a year ago, observers no longer think he can finish out his term.

[appalachiablue]

22. TY, good update on Argentines Finance Issues & Macri

Best of luck in the next round for Brazil's election, Jair & DT, chaos twins.

[sandensea]

23. You're welcome, appalachiablue.

The sad part is, it's almost exactly what happened to them in '81 - except, of course, the perpetrator that time was a dictatorship.

I have no doubt Brazil's banksters intend to use Bolsonazi as cover for something similar. And Brazil's pickings promise to be much bigger (it's economy is over three times larger).

Latin America's answer to Bushonomics.

[moondust]

24. Brazilian stocks rose sharply Monday

The benchmark Brazilian Bovespa index gained 4.6 percent on Monday. The iShares MSCI Brazil exchange-traded fund (EWZ) jumped 6.74 percent its biggest one-day gain since May 19, 2017, when it rose 6.75 percent.
~
The Brazilian real rallied more than 2 percent against the U.S. dollar on Monday...
~
Brazilian stocks rose sharply last week ahead of Sunday's vote. The EWZ surged 8.7 percent while the Bovespa index gained 3.8 percent.
~
http://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/08/brazilian-shares-surge-after-far-right-presidential-candidate-wins-first-round-in-a-blowout.html

Bolsy must be a big deregulator and tax cutter like GOPee. I'm not sure those kinds of gains are sustainable.

[sandensea]

25. Exactly. He almost certainly will adopt Bushonomics, and it definitely isn't sustainable.

Brazil's voters can just ask their neighbors to the south, who elected a similar character (albeit somewhat more toned down) in 2015.

Deregulation, a debt bubble, and the inevitable implosion quickly followed, and they're now regretting every minute of it:

[Judi Lynn]

27. 'I don't see any reason for feminism': the women backing Brazil's Bolsonaro

The openly sexist presidential candidate has faced an extraordinary backlash. So why do many women support him?

Anna Jean Kaiser in São Paulo
@annajkaiser
Sun 14 Oct 2018 03.01 EDT

They are not victims, and they don’t need anyone’s sympathy. They have no time for “whiny feminists” – and no need for the government to guarantee equal pay.

They earned what they’ve achieved, often juggling a professional life with running a home and raising a family. And they want the right to bear arms to protect themselves and their loved ones.

They are the anti-feminist women backing the far-right, the former paratrooper Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil’s upcoming presidential runoff election – a man who has been repeatedly accused of misogyny and racism.

“I really don’t see any reason for feminism today — men and women are equal in Brazil,” said Ana de Moraes, 56, a retired lawyer who intends to vote for Bolsonaro on 28 October. “These feminist women screaming and taking off their clothes – it’s very backwards. Bolsonaro isn’t taking any rights away from women.”

More:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/oct/14/bolsonaro-brazil-presidential-candidate-women-voters-anti-feminism

[sandensea]

29. U.S. right-wing women have nothing Latin American right-wing women, let me tell you.

They share many of the same foibles: racism, religious fundamentalism, elitism, and resentment of their fellow women (particularly against younger ones).

But from my experience in Argentina (and to a lesser extent Brazil) I found that right-wing ladies in Latin America tend to take it to another level. Their hatred goes up to and including genocidal opinions outright.

Perfect for a carnival barker like Bolsonazi.