Democratic Midterm Momentum Has 'Stalled,' Top Party Pollster Warns

[Calista241]

Source: Huffington Post

A top Democratic pollster is warning his party’s candidates not to buy into the GOP’s rosy messaging on the economy and tax cuts, arguing they need to spotlight the economic headwinds and rising health care costs their base voters still face heading into the midterm elections.

The advice stems from new polling provided exclusively to HuffPost from Women’s Voices Women Vote Action Fund, Greenberg Research, and Democracy Corps. The polls, conducted by phone and web panel, surveyed more than 3,000 registered voters in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Tennessee and Wisconsin – all states with contested governor and/or Senate races, as well as competitive House contests.

“Democrats must not be distracted by the macro-economic and jobs-report numbers” Republicans have been touting, pollster Stan Greenberg wrote in a memo, authored with Democracy Corps’ Nancy Zdunkewicz and Page Gardner, president of the Women Voices Women Vote group. “It is a mistake to accept that GOP narrative and attribute credit to [former] President [Barack] Obama or insist it’s despite [President Donald] Trump and Republicans.”

....

The trio wrote that Democratic “momentum has stalled” in recent months because the party has failed to focus on “the economic and health care battles that most engage anti-Trump voters,” and because “Republican base voters, especially white working-class men, could finally point to a signature conservative policy achievement in the new tax cut law.”


Read more: https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/democratic-momentum-poll_us_5ae789a7e4b055fd7fcedaac

[The_Casual_Observer]

1. Kind of premature I think. The campaigns really haven't started yet and the tax cut isn't anything

to write home about.

[FarPoint]

12. Exactly

Primaries are just beginning.

[rtracey]

15. WHAT?

It is never too early to begin getting the vote out... that may be the problem, starting canvassing and out-reach too late.

[BumRushDaShow]

2. I'm not getting the concern when other than some special elections we are still in "primary season".

I.e., the polls might be more instructive as we approach the general election.

Primaries tend to have low turnout in any case and the upticks in the special elections that have occurred should be noted (particularly with the trend of flipped seats in state legislatures).

And IMHO, with the rise on gasoline prices (and some food prices now that a trade war is on), there will be no "distraction" from what people are experiencing.

[Politicub]

3. I expect the campaigns to catch fire after the primaries

Right now, democrats are competing against one another to get nominated for office. After the primaries, the focus will be on their republican opponents.

[riversedge]

7. The Dem primary is not until Aug 14--and sign up is still going on June 1 is deadline. LONG way to

go in WI.

[Scalded Nun]

4. I do hope they make (and keep making) a direct link between Trump/GOP and gas prices.

[bucolic_frolic]

5. Momentum and Peaking at the right time

are an art form

We Democrats get so riled up too early

Need to focus on stamina, don't lose our energy and mojo

[IronLionZion]

6. We're in the midst of party primaries now

and 6 months to the election. Many folks might be busy with life for now and looking forward to the summer. The general public's attention will ramp up again in the fall. Especially as they notice the lagging stock market, and higher prices for gas. While farmers and other industries get screwed by Trump's trade policies.

I've encountered folks who don't know their state's primary is in a week or 2, and don't care.

[PuppyBismark]

8. Not a surprise

I just had lunch with two people I used to work with. They are independents. Their comments were right on. As far as they could see, the Democrats have yet to have a coherent message about what they want to do to help the country. Running against Trump and not having a message to counter what the GOP has done to characterize the Democrats is just not going to work.

I've also called the Ohio party HQ and tried to ask them about this and all I got is how great the candidates they are running and nothing about any state or country message.

This is our election to lose, and we look like we are just going to do it.

[LanternWaste]

10. Direct them to the Democratic Party's website-- the platform is spelled out as simply

"Democrats have yet to have a coherent message about what they want to do to help the country.."

Direct them to the Democratic Party's website-- the platform (e.g., "coherent message&quot is spelled out as simply as simple can be.

"...we look like we are just going to do it."
Looking at the Blue Wave, and the results of special elections over the past four months, I think that is a rather inaccurate perception.

[PuppyBismark]

22. Bull

Nobody is going to the web site. The Dems need to be shouting it long and loud. Just putting something on a website does nothing. And the message needs to be hitting them often and from lots of people.

[Corgigal]

11. So the Trumps lies are ok then?

What he done, or congress to make any of their lives better. I'll wait.

Reason I don't do " independents", they are really republicans but want me to waste my time telling them shit they should find for themselves. If I'm getting played, they are paying to feed me.

This isn't about parties right now, it's about rule of law. That was so..all my life yesterday's elections.

[PuppyBismark]

23. So you know them and I don't

I have known them for over 15 years and I think I know them very well. They are indeed independent and it is attitudes that we know better about them that people who have known them for a long time don’t. Our party needs to start understanding the voters better and how to get our message out. Our opposition knows much better how to get out messages.

[Corgigal]

24. Enjoy,

Age has reflection.

[JustAnotherGen]

9. In NJ - Primary is June 5th

We'll worry about it on June 6th

[crazycatlady]

20. Thanks for the reminder

I need to send in for my ballot.

[lagomorph777]

13. Solid advice. Point out that the tax cut is only for billionaires.

And the rest of Turd's wacky economic "policies" will dramatically harm the middle class over the next 2-3 years if not reversed quickly.

[turbinetree]

14. List of States and primaries

https://www.fvap.gov/guide/appendix/state-elections


We need to get out and vote...........................

[Ccarmona]

16. I Will Keep My Opinion to Myself

Since it probably would be against DU rules.
DCCC

[Dawson Leery]

17. Stuart Rothenberg says otherwise.

https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/gop-senate-targets-fade

From the OP's article:

"The memo’s authors urge Democrats groups to concentrate on turning out what they call the “Rising American Electorate,” which consists of minority voters, millennials and single women — all key elements of the party’s base. While turnout dipped among these groups in the 2010 and 2014 midterm elections ― in which the GOP scored big gains ― the strategists are hopeful a backlash to Trump can spur a surge at the polls by such voters and lead to significant Democratic victories this November."

Get out the base, it is what wins midterms.

[beachbum bob]

18. Pure bullshit...

[Ccarmona]

19. This Is How You Gin Up the Base and Get Excitement Into a Campaign

https://www.thenation.com/article/nurses-have-a-prescription-for-the-democratic-party-back-single-payer/?nc=1|

[Raven123]

21. Focus on tax cuts -- and how they will be spent to put gas in the car