Dem leads by 6 points in Pa. special election: poll

[DonViejo]

Source: The Hill




BY LISA HAGEN - 03/12/18 01:00 PM EDT

Democrat Conor Lamb is gaining ground in Pennsylvania’s closely watched special election and holds a 6-point lead over Republican Rick Saccone, according to a poll released a day before the race.

A new Monmouth University poll found that, if there’s a surge in Democratic voter turnout on Tuesday, Lamb garners a majority of the vote with 51 percent, compared to Saccone's 45 percent. One percent of voters polled support a third-party candidate, while three percent remain undecided. But when looking at the race through a lower turnout model that resembles past midterm cycles, Lamb’s lead shrinks to just 2 points, 49 to 47 percent.

Lamb’s bump in the polls comes as Republicans have become increasingly worried about a Democratic upset in a western Pennsylvania district that President Trump won by nearly 20 points in 2016. Ex-Rep. Tim Murphy (R) resigned from the seat in October, setting up the special election clash. Monmouth’s poll has been more of an outlier than previous polls, which either show Lamb with a smaller lead or Saccone up winning by a few points. And a survey conducted by Monmouth last month found the Republican state lawmaker leading by a small margin.

“This district has voted overwhelmingly Republican in recent elections, but a large number of these voters have blue-collar Democratic roots. Lamb seems to have connected with them,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.

Read more: http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/377949-poll-dem-leads-by-6-points-day-before-key-pa-special-election

[FakeNoose]

1. I wish they would keep this quiet until after the election

Every time the polls say Lamb is ahead, it just means the GOP will figure out some way to cheat.
Let them think they're ahead and they won't bother trying any funny business.

It's nail-biting time folks!

[dalton99a]

2. GOTV. Complacency loses elections

[dawg day]

3. Let's hope this means Trump's unhinged speech didn't actually help

I really don't want to contemplate that-- that PA voters could actually listen to that nutball hate-driven speech Sat and think, "Gee, I'm going to vote for his guy!"

[Flaleftist]

5. Im hoping it did help

Help encourage voters who are growing sick of Trump to go out and vote against the candidate he is supporting. We may be just a place where an endorsement by Trump does just that.

[3Hotdogs]

4. As Uncle Joe once said, It aint who gets the most votes, its who counts the votes.

[dflprincess]

10. Took the post right off of my keyboard. nt

[MissKat]

6. GO CONOR GO

Conor Lamb is a terrific, patient, kind, delightful man. He listens with such patience. It's been the joy of my life to work for him. He's made me proud to be a Democrat. He's a bit more conservative on a few issues, but you know what? Let's throw out the litmus test. Let's take the measure of the person and go from there. I asked him why he was a Democrat and here is what he said. "I'm a Democrat because my grandfather was a Democrat, and he was a Democrat because FDR was a Democrat. Democrats fight for working people and refuse to leave anyone behind. I'm proud of that legacy, and I'll work every day to do the same for the people in our district." That says it all.We don't leave anyone behind.

[George II]

7. Looks like that poll has been revised down to 2%

[DeminPennswoods]

9. No, there's 3 turnout models

1 is "surge", that is a blue wave Dems extra, extra motivated to vote.

2 is presidential year turnout model

3 is normal, low turnout special election.

Lamb leads by 7 in turnout models 1 and 2 and by 2 pts in turnout model 3.

[beachbum bob]

8. lamb has crossed over the 50% level to 51% and undecideds are now down to 3%

this makes it the election for lamb can win

and does not bode well for republicans and trump if this holds up tomorrow. Gotta wait now for the voting to start and to end.