Live: Macron's party tops first round of France's legislative elections

[muriel_volestrangler]

Source: France 24

President Emmanuel Macron’s party tops the first round of France's legislative polls with 32% of the vote, ahead of the conservatives (22%) and the far right (14%), according to an Ipsos estimate for FRANCE 24.
...
Some more precise details about how French people voted today, based on exit polls from our partner Ipsos/Sopra:

Among people who cast ballots for Emmanuel Macron’s La République en Marche! party today:
74% voted for Macron in the presidential poll
21% voted for mainstream conservative François Fillon
17% voted for Socialist Benoit Hamon
14% voted for hard-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon
6% voted for far-right leader Marine Le Pen

Again, among those who voted for today’s clear winner:
64% define themselves as centrists
44% say they tend to lean left
44% say they tend to lean right
20% define themselves as left-wing voters
18% define themselves as right-wing voters

Read more: http://www.france24.com/en/20170611-live-liveblog-france-follow-first-round-legislative-elections

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Link to tweet

[ucrdem]

1. Socialists really took a beating.

Doesn't look good for their health-care system.

[sandensea]

3. Yes; but Macron's En Marche is only slightly to the right of them.

Les Republicains, the major "right-wing" party in France (read: something akin to third-way Democrats), took a beating as well.

[ucrdem]

4. Well, he did add "republique" to the name of the party

And right now it's looking like they can introduce whatever reforms they please with no opposition. So we'll see. He hasn't said much about it yet but he has talked a lot about reforms in the abstract.

p.s. the other part of the story is the unusually high abstention rate.

[sandensea]

5. My point was that I doubt he'd dilute their famed social safety net to any significant degree

You're right though: there could be unpleasant surprises.

[ucrdem]

6. The new Prime Minister is from the UPM/Republicans

Édouard Philippe

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Édouard_Philippe

p.s. former PM Manuel Valls is in a close race and may lose his first round. Sad days for the Socialist Party.
update: Head of the PS has apparently also been eliminated by the En Marche head of digital communications.

[sandensea]

7. Zut alors!

Cohabitation all over again?

[ucrdem]

8. Manuel Valls, Benoit Hamon,

gone it appears. Next up: the Socialist mayor of Paris, Anne Hidalgo, who already has an En Marche opponent, even though her reelection is 3 years away.

[sandensea]

11. Well, I'd just dare Monsieur Philippe to take any sharp turns on the right.

Surely he remembers what happens every time they try that:

[politicat]

2. That graph is has math struggles.

If Republique en Marche has more than half of the seats, that half-pie graph should be a full quarter circle. And Unsubmissive fr Communist should be smaller than Coalition Socialist.

[muriel_volestrangler]

12. Yeah, don't don't what the semi-pie chart was. New projections:

We have new projections coming in from pollster Ipsos/Sopra Steria for FRANCE 24 that see an even wider seat gap opening up for Emmanuel Macron's La République en Marche.
LREM: 415 to 455 seats
The conservative LR and allies: 70 to 110
The Socialist Party and allies: 20 to 30
La France Insoumise and the Communist Party: 8 to 18
The National Front: 1 to 5
Other: 7 to 12

(at OP link)

[suffragette]

9. Wow, so it looks like the rejection of the two strongest traditional parties continues.

Wouldn't this be like the Democrats and Republicans in the U.S. or the Tories and Labour in the UK being ousted by a newcomer party?

This is quite remarkable.

[ucrdem]

10. Paris headline: "une debacle historique pour le PS" (Hollande's socialist party)

http://www.la-croix.com/France/Politique/Legislatives-debacle-historique-PS-2017-06-11-1200854248

That leaves the top three parties as: Republicans en marche, Republicans, and National Front. Could be worse but still.

[muriel_volestrangler]

13. However, seat projections (see #12) have Socialists and Insoumise ahead of FN

due to more concentrated support I suppose, or the tendency of the National Front to lose second round elections since everyone else hates them.

[ucrdem]

14. Yes, that's a silver lining for sure.

And the UPM took a beating too so there's that. Also it seems Manuel Valls squeaked into the 2nd round.