Mexican Peso Slides After U.S. Poll Shows Trump Edging Ahead

[Lucky Luciano]

Source: Bloomberg

Easily-traded currency is used as proxy for election results

ABC poll places Trump 1 percentage point ahead of Democratic

Mexico’s peso slid to a three-week low after a poll showed Republican candidate Donald Trump ahead in the presidential race a week before the vote.
The currency fell 1.1 percent to 19.0652 as of 8:04 a.m. in Mexico City after the ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll placed Trump 1 percentage point ahead of Democratic rival Hillary Clinton. The peso fell 0.8 percent on Friday after the Federal Bureau of Investigation said it was re-opening an inquiry into Clinton’s use of e-mail. The Brazilian real fell 0.7 percent, reversing an earlier gain.
Mexican exporters are heavily dependent on access to the U.S. market and Trump has said he would revisit the North American Free Trade Agreement that governs commerce between the two countries, threatening the motor of Mexico’s growth. The peso is the second-most liquid currency in emerging markets and has become an easy-to-trade proxy for investors’ perceptions of who will win the White House.

“The Mexican peso is really being driven by what’;s going on in the U.S. elections,” said Simon Quijano-Evans, an emerging-market strategist at Legal & General Group Plc in London. “This is going to be the case for many emerging-market currencies for the next seven days: markets are going to be second-guessing what a Trump win or loss means. The Mexican peso has a higher correlation, but there is general spillover.”

Read more: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-01/mexican-peso-slides-after-u-s-poll-shows-trump-edging-ahead

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USDMXN now at 19.10.

[grubbs]

3. Good god. Who cares?

[Lucky Luciano]

5. People do use it as a proxy for the election since people are...

...are putting their money where their mouth is. Trump truly being ahead would probably mean USDMXN around 20 (was 19.9 before first debate), so HRC still ahead, but less so according to traders who do possess a lot of info.

[Imperialism Inc.]

15. Horseshit.

What information about the outcome of the election would traders have that no one else has?

[Lucky Luciano]

16. Private polling - willingness to spend on more expensive sampling. consultants blah blah.

[Imperialism Inc.]

17. Again.

Horseshit.

[Lucky Luciano]

18. Thanks for knowing everything. nt

[Imperialism Inc.]

19. Everything? No. Just that what you said is horseshit.

The only one claiming someone knows everything is you about "traders".

[Lucky Luciano]

20. I know about mathematics and trading.

I know next to nothing about art and poetry. I know what I know and more importantly, what I don't know.

[Imperialism Inc.]

21. Horseshit.

[Lucky Luciano]

22. K.

[Imperialism Inc.]

24. So you admit what you are saying is horseshit then?

[Lucky Luciano]

26. Complete unadulterated horseshit. Happy?

[liberal N proud]

4. Under Trump, the dollar will be worthless

[still_one]

6. A lot of problems with this headline. First of all it does NOT say trump is ahead

the MOE is +- 3. That means it is a tie

Second, it is a national poll which does not correctly factor in the electoral college, and every analyst who looks at the state polls, such as Nate Silver, giving overwhelming odds to Hillary

That doesn't make for headlines though, so they will continue to spew distortions

[George II]

7. Damn this shit annoys me (not you) - Trump is NOT "edging ahead" - one outlyer NATIONAL poll....

....has him with a tiny lead. When we elect Presidents via a national poll I'll give these things some thought. Clinton is STILL far ahead in states totaling about 250 Electoral votes, and leading in other states that put her over 270 Electoral votes. More than 25 million people have already voted.

This crap from the media is just ridiculous.

Remember the Brexit vote, and the day after when the market "crashed" (dropped a little bit)? Networks were whining "the sky is falling" and calling for another major recession. The market rebounded in a WEEK and now it was just a slight blip in the big picture.

[SpankMe]

10. How'll they ever pay for the wall now!? n/t

[BumRushDaShow]

12. DUzy!

[jcgoldie]

11. My wife and I are headed to Mexico in December

Devaluing the peso would make our dollars a lot more valuable there. Good god how I hope president elect Clinton gives the peso a boost and our vacation costs more!

[Cryptoad]

13. Not so quick doomday trolls

the people with the money$ still betting on HRC!
The Money knows!

http://predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-winner

[Lucky Luciano]

14. The people speculating on USDMXN are betting hundreds of millions...billions of dollars.

Predictwise has got nothing on this.

Also, these traders are not seeing an orangefuck win - for that USDMXN probably needs to be at least 20.

[Cryptoad]

23. try reading the link,,,

Predictwise is a data collection dump for people placing millions $ of bets on the Race...........

[Lucky Luciano]

25. FX is a much MUCH bigger market.

We watch predictwise too.

[Cryptoad]

27. Never said it wasn't

never is was not an important indicator
FX changes for many reason not related to the election
Election gambling is a more true reflection of what's happening

[Lucky Luciano]

29. Disagreed in this case.

Current account deficits, import/export, price of oil, etc are driving much less of the USDMXN vol than the US election.

2w implied vol at the money is 31%!! Would be 12% or so without the event risk.

[alcibiades_mystery]

28. Are you pro-Trump?

You know about mathematics and trading. Do you know anything about honesty and integrity?

Are you pro-Trump?

[Lucky Luciano]

30. Good god no. I will leave this country if he is elected.

To be clear, Hillary still has a 2.75:1 edge on winning. I am much more worried if USDMXN cracks 20. 19.24 now.

[alcibiades_mystery]

31. You sound throughout this thread like you want Trump to win

It's a pretty disturbing spectacle to see pro-Trump posters are DU

[Lucky Luciano]

32. Just asserting odds.

I would be absolutely crushed if orangefuck wins.

I have repeatedly said that worrying only really begins at USDMXN around 20. We are still well off that amount.

I have repeatedly refused to mention orangefuck by name.

Don't know why that makes me pro-orangefuck.

I will tell you how I am genuinely "concerned" - the down ticket races.