Trump Leads Clinton by 1 Point in New Poll as Enthusiasm Declines

[TomCADem]

Source: ABC News

Strong enthusiasm for Hillary Clinton has ebbed since the renewal of the FBI’s email investigation.

While vote preferences have held essentially steady, she’s now a slim point behind Donald Trump -- a first since May -- in the latest ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates.

Forty-six percent of likely voters support Trump in the latest results, with 45 percent for Clinton. Taking it to the decimal for illustrative purposes, a mere .7 of a percentage point divides them. Third-party candidate Gary Johnson has 3 percent, a new low; Jill Stein, 2 percent.

Trump now leads Clinton by 8 points in the share of voters who are very enthusiastic about their choice as of Friday. But, compared to past elections it’s low for both of them –- 53 percent for Trump, 45 percent for Clinton.

Read more: http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-leads-clinton-point-poll-enthusiasm-declines/story?id=43199459

---

Regardless of the result of the election, I hope the American people peacefully accept the results.

[Jason1961]

1. Thanks to James Comey

Who Obama is sure had good intentions.

[TomCADem]

3. With an Assist from the MSM, Which Has Been Ignoring Anti-Trump Coverage...

...for the past few days. CNN has ignored all of Trump's Russian ties the past few days.

[Jason1961]

29. I just don't get it

Journalism used to be a noble profession

[harun]

42. The Corporate medias mandate is a horse race. That and never having to discuss

real policy.

They do that and they all keep their fat pay checks, good health insurance and low taxes.

The rest of us... not so much.

[riversedge]

52. Hillary's issue is seen as the October surprise by the media/press. Can't have

2 surprises you know.

They were waiting for the Oct. surprise--then it landed last Friday.



Seriously-I do think this what has happened!

[JustAnotherGen]

2. You mean Trump supporters peacefully accept - correct?

They lose - riots.

They win - I wouldn't be suprised if they come 'get us' - us being blacks, latinos, hispanics, arabs, muslims, GLBT.

They want our blood - that's why they are voting for him. They know he won't lift a finger to stop them.

[apcalc]

5. No, I will not accept the result.

I will not accept racism, misogyny, facism....not now or ever.

[JustAnotherGen]

8. Thank you

[mountain grammy]

9. There will be no peace.. I agree.

They want our blood. They say it every chance they get.

No, I will not peacefully accept the election of Trump.. No! If we do, we're toast, literally.

[George II]

4. I'm sure it's a "national" poll, but nowhere in the article does it state that. Sloppy reporting.

[still_one]

15. Enthusiasm is high among Hillary supporters. I don't know what their criteria is, but in my

phone banking into Florida and North Carolina, they are pumped up for Hillary

Also, National Polls, whether tracking or not, do NOT accurately reflect the electoral college and that is their biggest flaw

[George II]

16. Correct, "national" polls are essentially useless:

Let's say they polled 1000 people, 100 from Texas. That will skew the poll toward Trump. I'm sure it's more scientific, but that's an extreme that could give false results.

Also, let's look at three big states:

New York - 29
Texas - 38
California - 55

Clinton could win NY and California by 5%, Trump Texas by 15%. The combination of the three could show that they're "tied" or very close, but Clinton would get 84 electoral votes to Trump's 38. A landslide even in a "close" overall popular vote tally.

[DK504]

38. ABC

It's an ABC poll, I'm waiting for them to be correct once, just once.

If Commie Comey has just jacked our election for this shit-gibbon yam, he should be brought up on charges. For once I hope they find SOME ONE accountable. There will be violence in the strrets.

[George II]

43. I agree with your sentiment, but this "Commie" stuff died more than 20 years ago.

[Greybnk48]

6. Not anyone I've talked to

who had planned to vote for Hillary or who already has. Bullsh*t on this one. Trump is repulsing almost everyone I know.

[videohead5]

7. This Poll is Garbage

About a week ago it had Hillary up by 12 points and it got down to 1 point before Comey sent out that letter..NBC's Survey Monkey has Hillary up 6 points.they survey 40,000 people.

[TomCADem]

11. DU: ****BREAKING**** Washington Post/ABC A + Rated National Poll Clinton 51 - Deplorable 43

From September 11, 2016:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12512408728

[still_one]

21. I don't care what its rated, it is a national poll, and it is states, not a national poll

that determines the winner, especially this close to the election.

Also, I will take their criteria of "enthusiam", with a large grain of salt. As I mentioned above, the call banking responses I have been getting for Hillary into the swing states, they are pumped up for her.

I'll also take Nate Silver over any national poll:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=2016-senate-forecast

The OP wording is also phrased in the most pessimistic way. It is a tie, is what it is. Saying trump takes the lead is a little disingenuous.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

[George II]

44. It's a "tie" in a dubious poll by a very inaccurate pollster.

[still_one]

45. I was giving it the benefit of the doubt.

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

58. And to no one's surprise.....

....you DIDN'T post that one.

[still_one]

10. There is no decline in enthusiasm among Hillary supporters. I have been doing call banking

and they are pumped

As with most national polls, tracking or not, they do not factor in the electoral college correctly

A 1 point difference is a tie.

As long as we GOTV we win.

How about this tracking poll from Huffintonpost?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12512566946

Of course that would provide a positive message, and we can't have that, can we

[KALD]

20. I'm with you!

[George II]

55. This "no enthusiasm" shtick is just that, a shtick. I know dozens of voters here in CT....

....and the Northeast (Maine, NY, NJ) who are giddy with the prospect of being able to vote for her.

No enthusiasm my ass.

[still_one]

56. +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

[Still In Wisconsin]

12. Congratulations, America. You're going to elect a fascist misogynist

serial assaulter because some e-mails may or may not contain new information that will not incriminate the other candidate. When the mushroom cloud rises because President Trump was provoked by a tweet or perceived slight by some world leader you can die assured that you took a principled stand. Because, e-mails and Benghazi!

Shame.

[still_one]

31. What, because of a national poll that indicates it is a tie, which doesn't mean sqwat

FYI the MOE in that ABC poll is +-3, so it is a tie, but of course that would not make a good headline, like "trump leads"

It is the state polls, specifically the battleground states that will determine the outcome

I will also take Nate Silver, and other state polls watcher over any national poll:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

Here is Nate Silver's Senate prediction:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/senate/?ex_cid=2016-forecast

As long as we GOTV we will win. Everyone should do what they can, call banking, canvassing etc.

[NHDEMFORLIFE]

46. Speaking as a lifelong liberal political junkie

If Trump wins this election, with the incredible assistance of the head of the FBI and "our friends" in the media, this will be it for me. If I could afford to quit my job and escape from the lunatic asylum that our country will have become I'd be on the road next Wednesday.

[still_one]

48. I here you, but most of us don't have the flexibility of a Bryan Cranston who says he will move to

Canada if trump wins. First of all, Canada is NOT cheap, and unless someone is independently wealthy they are going to have to get a permission to work in Canada, which means they will need to demonstrate a need why Canada need their particular abilities, and what they have to offer.

While anything is possible, as long as we GOTV, we WILL win.

[INdemo]

33. No, no, no....Hillary will win.

ABC (owned by the reichwing company Disney) is the only poll that shows the race this close
and especially with Trump ahead.
All other polls show Hillary ahead,anywhere from 3% to as high as 7-9 points.

Now the stakes have changed as far as Im concerned...
A vote for Trump is a vote for Fascism and a vote against Democracy.
James Caviler was correct when he said our Democracy is in jeopardy.

There is no such thing as the GOP.
The Republicans have gone by the way of the Fascists,Racists (fill in the blanks)___________________

When a Republican Senator (Richard Burr) suggests gun owners should have a " bullseye" on Hillary and the media does not call him out on this something is wrong. When Republican leaders dont call him out on this statement there is something terribly wrong....
The hell with his apology and walking it back, this guy should be behind bars right now.

So at this point, and and I been through 12 Presidential elections now,our choice is between a Fascist and Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton. I really believe that our Democracy is at stake and this is the most important election of our 240 year history.

Now Im going to go make some calls to GOTV....

[mountain grammy]

13. I heard from one of my facebook moron acquaintances

voting for Trump because of emails.. a woman, a stupid, stupid Florida woman. She was going to do it anyway, she just thinks this gives her some legitimacy.. fuck em all.

[secondwind]

17. This Florida woman and her husband voted for HER yesterday :-)

[mountain grammy]

27. Thank you..

quite a few Floridians giving her shit on her stupid post.. so glad to hear this.

[still_one]

34. I can also tell you that my phone banking into Florida had a lot of people chomping at the

bit to vote for Hillary

[mountain grammy]

37. Thank you.

[AllyCat]

14. F*ck Comey. Hope he is at least getting some good deal for selling us to

Der Trumpenführer

[KALD]

18. I think this guy knows a thing or two about winning elections..

"Clinton path to 300+ rock solid. Structure of race not affected by Comey's reckless irresponsibility. Vote and volunteer, don't fret or wet."
David Plouffe

[C Moon]

19. They're at it again: I recall these bull shit polls in 2012

they had R$ thinking he was a shoe in.

538 is looking good!
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

[LovingA2andMI]

22. Exactly....

When will folks stop falling for the week prior to the election propaganda? The Media plays the same game every 4 years and every four years, the same group of people fall for the BS.

Hillary's Electorial College Lead Is Solid. She's Winning This!

[still_one]

35. It is a national poll. National polls not only are subject to a lot of noise, but they

also do not factor in the electoral college which is what determines elections

Also, a small point missed is that the MOE in this poll is + or - 3 which essentially means according to this poll it is a tie nationally, which as I said means very little because it is a national poll

[KWR65]

23. These polls are propaganda and created to get web clicks

No one should put any faith polls any longer. They are no longer credible. The real poll will be released after Nov. 8th. Sheesh.

[videohead5]

24. Look at The State Polls

If this poll was right these state polls would be a lot different.

[obnoxiousdrunk]

25. Thanks for posting Tom ...

[still_one]

36. not every post, but the majority for sure, and definitely as LBN. The fact that it is a

national poll, has a MOE of +-3, does not reflect the electoral college, and effectively says it is a draw, which says absolutely nothing.

On the other hand, those who analyze the state polls, which actually mean something because that is how the electoral college is determined

tell the exact opposite

I will take the state polls any day over a national poll, especially this close to the election

[DownriverDem]

28. I disagree

Folks are pretty pissed about Comey and are more determined to defeat Trump. I follow this site: www.electoral-vote.com It's all about the electoral votes. Millions have already voted for HRC!

[Blue Idaho]

30. I see Tom Terrific is at it again.

More Doom, More Gloom, More Fear...

[Cryptoad]

32. Funny how that works, heh?

I see there are still people out there who will give ya a dollar for every quarter u give them if Trump wins......... Everything going to be OK!

[OKNancy]

39. Nate Silver - model shows little difference using the ABC poll

Nate Silver ?@NateSilver538 33m33 minutes ago
Our model forecasts the popular vote as Clinton 49.2, Trump 44.7.
What if we removed the ABC/Post poll entirely? Clinton 49.3, Trump 44.5.

[BumRushDaShow]

41. Sam Wang and PEC

http://election.princeton.edu/todays-electoral-vote-histogram/

[ananda]

47. This is just bullshit!

Clinton is way ahead of Trump.

The media is just trying to pretend that the race
is close to suit their own agenda.

[RedCloud]

49. I agree

They want to destroy the Democrats chances of a landslide just to placate a few powerful...

Today I heard NPR being sponsored by the Koch brothers. employers of 60,000 people.

Let's see 60,000 people 120 billion dollars. That means $2,000,000 for each, right Koch bros.?

So the bastards are surrounding us and corrupting the land.

[squirecam]

50. Clinton STILL WINS in this poll

RED/BLUE – Another look at the data divides the last seven nights of tracking results into red, blue and toss-up states, as designated by the ABC News Political Unit. The results:

In states considered to be strongly for Trump or leaning toward him (with a total of 180 electoral college votes), he leads Clinton by a broad 60-34 percent.

In blue states (with 278 electoral votes), Clinton leads, 54-37 percent.

In the five ABC-designated toss-up states (with 80 electoral votes), Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Utah, voters split 41-48 percent, Clinton-Trump. That’s not a significant difference given the 5.5-point error margin at this sample size.
_____________________________

Even in this scenario, Clinton still wins.

[Aristus]

51. More media 'horse-race' bullshit.

[MFM008]

53. I voted.

Period.

[C_U_L8R]

54. Only an idiot would vote for Trump

and we should have an exact count next week.

Meanwhile, c'mon everyone and GOTV !
I'm even more enthusiastic today. Go Hillary !!

[StevieM]

57. A week ago we were looking at winning Arizona. Then James Comey and Jason Chaffetz broke the law

and now the race has tightened.

This is a disgrace.