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TomCADem

(17,390 posts)
Wed Oct 26, 2016, 09:54 AM Oct 2016

War over polls intensifies

Source: The Hill

Donald Trump is ripping pollsters and the media, arguing the surveys are biased against him because many include too many Democrats in their sampling surveys.

Conservative news sites have pounced on Trump’s arguments, pointing to a trio of national polls that show the race between the Republican presidential nominee and Democrat Hillary Clinton is a toss-up.

Trump and his supporters argue that mainstream pollsters are under-sampling Republicans to account for a rise in independents, while failing to account for an enthusiasm gap that favors Trump or the new voters he could bring into the fold.

* * *

“When the candidate starts fighting against the polls as much as their opponent, it means they’re losing,” said Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray, whose most recent national survey put Clinton’s lead at 12 points. Still, many pollsters are puzzled by the extreme variations in the surveys.

Read more: https://origin-nyi.thehill.com/homenews/campaign/302571-are-the-polls-skewed-against-trump



In the end, it makes sense to fight for every vote on your side as if the race is a tie.
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Democat

(11,617 posts)
1. They keep talking about an "enthusiasm gap" but Clinton supporters are voting
Wed Oct 26, 2016, 10:11 AM
Oct 2016

It looks like people are more excited to vote for Clinton than Trump judging by early voting.

Maybe time to stop telling that lie?

 

beachbum bob

(10,437 posts)
2. doesn't matter as long as all democrats vote...the poll will be the final result and we can't get
Wed Oct 26, 2016, 10:13 AM
Oct 2016

too worked up

Roland99

(53,342 posts)
5. Um, they sample based upon the %s of how people are registered or claim to be registered
Wed Oct 26, 2016, 10:30 AM
Oct 2016

DUH!

If they polled 40% Republicans but, nationwide, only 30% identify as Republican, then that's WAY oversampling for Republicans.


But, we all know that Trump knows that but he's just a whiny ass, self-centered douchebag.

Hugin

(33,198 posts)
7. Working-the-Refs... The last refuge of scoundrels.
Wed Oct 26, 2016, 10:45 AM
Oct 2016

As a Nation we must be patient as the Republicans and their lumpy orange tinted leader work through the stages of grieving their own abject failure.

I believe they are now past Denial and have moved into Bargaining.

This is gonna be ugly folks. Eeeew!

DemInND

(164 posts)
9. That is why people have to vote
Wed Oct 26, 2016, 11:27 AM
Oct 2016

Yes, the polls may look good for our side but their useless if the people who responded for Hillary think "She's going to win, I don't need to vote, let someone else". Multiply that by millions of times and then you have trouble. Some may be just lazy, some think they don't have the time. What they should think about is the fate of this Country is in our hands, now more than ever. Rally the troops, get out and do early voting. Less of a wait come actual election day. I will be early voting, you can too! With 13 days to go (I'm so ready for this) don't let our guard down. We want to party for us good guys on that Tuesday night. You look at Hillary and you can say "now there's a real presidential leader!" VOTE VOTE VOTE!

BumRushDaShow

(129,411 posts)
10. Did the media forget about
Wed Oct 26, 2016, 12:45 PM
Oct 2016

the site "unskewedpolls.com"?

Seems the domain has now been taken over by someone in Germany who turned it into (based on Google translate) pretty much a nonsensical site talking about women's "eyelashers" (am guessing a bad translation for mascara)?

Back in 2013, TPM noted that the guy who originally setup the unskewed site wrote an article on the Examiner.com website (now defunct) -

The conservative activist who gained a following during last year's campaign for his efforts to "unskew" polls has a theory on why his predictions for the election were so wildly off the mark, writing late last month that his analysis was incomplete because he did not consider the purported voter fraud and voter suppression efforts that he claimed were integral to President Barack Obama's victory.

Dean Chambers, the founder of UnSkewedPolls.com, wrote in a piece on Examiner.com that the "Obama Regime definitely won the election" by suppressing votes from would-be supporters of Mitt Romney and committing "massive voter fraud in the key swing states" – although he offered no evidence for either claim.

"I was only wrong in those projections because I was not aware nor did I calculate in the voter fraud and the voter suppression, both of which exceeded the margin by which Barack Obama was declared the winner of that election last Fall," Chambers wrote.

<...>

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/unskewed-polls-founder-i-was-only-wrong-because-i-didn-t-consider-voter-fraud


He apparently then created a new site that blamed the 2012 Rmoney loss on fraud in what he labled as "black states" and even had a map showing this!



Of course the irony of this is their naming these "black states" as a dog whistle choice of that color to designate these states' votes as "fraudulent" with the assumption that this was because they had high "urban" (read "black&quot populations. Yet they ignore that the truly large-black population states in the south like the Carolinas, Georgia, Alabama, & Mississippi, with total black populations running from 26% - 40%, all went for Romney. Meanwhile Pennsylvania has a black population ~12%, Florida has ~8%, and Virginia is ~20%, and Ohio is ~14% (all as of 2015).

I think the crap you are seeing today out of the Drumpf campaign is pulling all this old stuff up and running with it.

Hannahcares

(118 posts)
11. Republican owned proprietary voting machines
Wed Oct 26, 2016, 03:44 PM
Oct 2016

What if polls are "off" because proprietary software from republican owned voting machine companies has been programmed to flip votes from Democratic candidates to Reoublican candidates?

With Hillary showing meaningful leads in state and national polls, and the Senate contests showing likely Drmocratic gains, how do the Republicans "change the conversation" to prepare the country for unexpected victories in the coming election?
Well, if the "polls" are "wrong" ( corrupt, too many Dems in sample, liberal bias, etc)
it's much easier to explain how we wake up the morning after the elections to discover that Trump had edged out Hillary for President, and the Senate remains in Republican control.
Who can forget Ohio in 2004 - go to sleep with Kerry ahead; wake up with Bush the winner. (See McConnell out-if-state servers and subsequent investigations)

Read Jonathon Simon (Election Defense Alliance ) CODE RED - Computerized Election Fraud for a sobering account of how elections are being flipped.

So the Republican "dirty tricks" team tries the following:
Trash the current polling as inaccurate
Announce big increases in Trump advertising budget
Start defending states where Trump is behind but has a chance to win if the right percentage of votes are flipped.
Etc etc- we've seen this movie before, and we know how it ends! Will they get away with it this time, or is Hillary too far ahead?
Look at the states with total Republican control of elections in particular...look to Scott to flip Florida ( certainly for senator and maybe for President) look to Walker to flip Wisconsin ( certainly for Johnson vs Feingold and maybe for President, again depending on margins in the actual voting,
Look for McCrory to flip NC for Trump and Burr, and watch out for close Senate races in Nevada and Missouri.
If Dems can turn out in overwhelming numbers, the "flipping" programs can be overcome. Meanwhile watch for Republicxn efforts to try to discredit any polling showing Hillary with a commanding lead...harder to explain those "surprise" election results!
Sorry to be so cynical - been doing Election Defense/Verified Voting work for 15 years. Can't believe so little has changed! Peace, Hannah

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