Poll: Donald Trump makes big gains in Pennsylvania

[modrepub]

Source: The Morning Call

On the eve of the first presidential debate, a new Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll shows a narrow gap between Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump amid rising support for Trump within his own party.

Clinton still leads Trump in a head-to-head matchup, but only by a 3-point margin, 44 percent to 41 percent. Those results showed Clinton's support dropping and Trump's gaining compared with a Morning Call/Muhlenberg poll a week earlier, which showed Clinton at 47 percent and Trump at 38 percent.

In a four-way matchup, Clinton leads by 2 points, at 40 percent to Trump's 38 percent. Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson dropped to 8 percent — down from 14 percent a week ago — and Green Party nominee Jill Stein went from 5 to 3 percent.

Pennsylvania's competitive U.S. Senate race also shifted in the GOP's favor, with Republican Sen. Pat Toomey on top by 1 point, 41 percent to 40 percent for Democratic challenger Katie McGinty.

Read more: http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/presidential/Poll-Donald-Trump-makes-big-gains-in-Pennsylvania.html

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Me thinks the "law and order" party is beginning to make inroads. Unrest, protests and terror attacks are going to be played up by the Republicans to their advantage.

[gelsdorf]

1. Pittsburgh and Philadelphia carry PA

Trump won't be able to overcome that in the rest of Pennsyltucky

[TheCowsCameHome]

2. Someone will be along to tell us to disregard the polls.

Count on it.

[Loki Liesmith]

6. Don't disregard. Do average.

[broadcaster75201]

35. Exactly

They are a snapshot i time. You average. Also, State polls lag by about a week.

Maybe he is close. Believe me, the fact that he is in contention makes me debate whether the dump that is America is worth saving. I am working, and will vote, for HRC. But America just needs to go away. It is killing a planet and only getting worse.

[mahina]

46. I'll bite. Are you calling for the destruction of our country?

[Missn-Hitch]

47. Excuse me for jumping in here.

I get it. I do believe if the Orange Menace pulls this out, destruction of "what we know" as our country will happen. Hell, even if HRC wins, and it is NOT a landslide, the other side will cause trouble like we haven't seen before. Obstruction of Obama is nothing compared to what is ahead for a Hillary presidency.

I can probably afford an Orange Menace presidency but the numbers of people who can not - fuh get about it.

There is a lot of "chatter" on the other side about "revolt". This certainly can lead to the destruction of our country.

My opinion, which is less than 2 cents. Cheers.

[johnnyrocket]

20. Like BO says: Don't boo polls...vote!

[underpants]

3. I agree with your analysis

Frightened people make big mistakes.

[RKP5637]

27. Quite true, and the R's know this tactic quite well, as well as money issues, personal income

and loss of jobs, etc. Trump makes it sound like he's going to wave a magic wand. This was posted earlier on DU, funny and interesting.
http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/09/donald-trump-first-day-in-office

[Moonwalk]

53. Get rid of gun-free zones in schools? He wants kids to be able to shoot each other?

[oberliner]

4. Pennsylvania is a must win for HRC

No two ways about that.

[bucolic_frolic]

5. Fear mongering

from Richard Nixon to Willie Horton to Donald Trump

All I can say is our Democratic Party here is making the best
effort ever

If we lose PA it won't be for lack of effort or resources

Hillary needs to remind people of what a regression Trump would be

and show her positive vision for the future

[Loki Liesmith]

7. Average this poll with last weeks

Clinton is up 5 in PA

[onehandle]

8. Yep. nt

[turbinetree]

9. Here lets try this aggregate and see how its skews

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_clinton-5633.html


The herr Gruppenführer is only up in "two" polls, and tied in "two" polls

And as for "law and order" , defrauding and having slush funds, just doesn't make for "law and order" that is a reminder, and the tax returns, Clinton had better hammer this right wing bigoted racist fraud about those tax returns, on everything, and link him to that fact, until he turns into Mr. Creosote and explodes

[Botany]

10. "amid rising support for Trump within his own party"

More democrats then republicans in PA.

[BlueInPhilly]

11. Live by the polls

Die by the polls

[Cryptoad]

12. Posters Comments,,,

sounds like they are happy abt this

[modrepub]

17. Not really

Republican wins in the White House AND the Senate are going to bring severe reprisals and setbacks. This is a no holds barred slug fest winner take all bar brawl. I was never very conformable with Hillary on the top of the ticket; there is too much baggage with her. I guess we'll see how she does in the next few weeks. Downplaying Trump's abilities overlooks that he's overcome nearly a dozen other candidates and the Republican establishment. He's much more savvy than he's given credit for and he's tapped into a significant part of the electorate that is angry and want's their opponents to hurt just as much, if not more than they do.

If you think we're divided after 16 years of Bush/Obama, the next 4 years are only going to be even worse in my opinion.

[factfinder_77]

18. So what exactly has Trump accomplished, what is his abilities besides lying?

[still_one]

29. That is an accurate statement, but it is also accurate that a sizable number of the populous are

racist, or have racist tendencies. Are sexist, or have sexist tendencies, and have no problem creating a false narrative and scapegoat why things may not be going well in their lives

That is why it is critical to get out the Democratic vote, and one of the most effective ways of doing that is through phone banking, and canvassing.

It also has the benefit of actually doing something to combat the real threat to our democracy that a trump presidency would bring

[still_one]

23. The hard cold facts are that a large number of trump supporters are racists, or have racist

tendencies, and a good number of republicans today subscribe to that mindset. A trump win wouldn't be about a divided country, the country has been divided for some time now. A trump win would usher in an extreme right wing government, It would be a huge paradigm shift.

There will be at least two supreme court appointments by the next President, perhaps three. A woman's right to choose would become illegal, Citizens United would be solidified, civil rights laws from the sixties would be whittled away, and other issues that come before the SC would change the face of the country for decades.

A trump win has so many negative implications on the national and international stage. A trump win get could very likely be the catalyst for the next great depression. His international policies could involve us in multiple wars without clear goals, that would contribute to the economic disaster I alluded to in the previous sentence.

Trump is running on a platform of racism, fear, and xenophobia. History is filled with such demagogues, and the results have been a disaster

[RKP5637]

30. VERY well said!!! K&R!!! n/t

[Old Vet]

37. Very Well stated still-one couldnt agree more

[Cryptoad]

31. Thats a favor Right wing talking point,,,,,,

I guess they appreciate u helping spread the "word"

[SunSeeker]

41. So are you a "modern Republican" as your name suggests?

Because those are some old Republican talking points you got there.

[modrepub]

48. Old-School Moderate Republican

More aligned with Sen Specter. There are a few of us left in the NE. Yes these are very old points used since the Vietnam Era. They will probably continue to work (until they don't). I don't think Repubs make this country any safer than Dems but they can and will score points when they point out football protesters, minorities vandalizing property, general disrespect for perceived authority and what some consider lack of conformity to norms in behavior.

I don't agree with any of their characterizations but I recognize this strategy has worked in the past. Personally I find it repugnant that their is so much spite thrown at these football protest but nothing said about the Constitutional Sherrif organization that openly thwarts federal authority (my county's Sherrif is openly on that list).

[heaven05]

13. if american popular vote

installs this new fuhrer of the 21st century into 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, it will be no surprise. I will have been justified in my thinking since Ronald McReagan took office and started this reichwing revolution for the closet racist and fascist that populates, and always have, the underworld of american culture and politics. All I know is it won't be the fault of a vast majority of PoC residing, tenously, in this land. It will be the longstanding desire realized of one large subsegment of this society. NO DOUBT!!!!!

Leave it to Beaver, Donna Reed, The Adventures of Ozzie and Harriet Nelson et al. wormed their way into all our psyches many decades ago as to the way it was, all whitebreadd communities enjoying the fruits of this nation unencumbered with neighbors who were black, gay, muslim, hispanic(well sometimes)Lucille Ball had a Cuban husband Ricky Ricardo on her long running show. These shows among many set the stage, literally in the 50's and 60's for the beginning of the questioning as to why there were no depictions of minorities outside of the Amos and Andy type stereotypical characterizations of AA especially. Just go to the 50 most racist TV shows of all time. These set the stage, entertainment wise, up and into the 21st century for the decision americans face now. Fascism and racism normalized and made politically correct and no doubt the law of the land (held up Supreme Court vacancy by the reichwing) or not.

We've been on the slow path toward our very own trumpenfuhrer for decades. NO DOUBT!!!.

[factfinder_77]

14. 486 likely general election voters - margin of error, plus or minus 5

trustworthy ? I say no..

[triron]

43. I am thinking

similarly. (In a state with millions of voters.)

[RAFisher]

15. Mildly disappointing. More polling from PA would certainly help.

Pretty much that Morning Call poll from last week looks like it was off. Clinton is a 8% lead means it's over for Trump. But now with a 2% lead it looks more like a swing state.

[humbled_opinion]

16. Next up PA is a toss up state

Psyops.

[factfinder_77]

19. Russian operative I presume

[DeminPennswoods]

21. The last poll was maybe a little too Dem

Muhlenberg is an ok poll. The marginal data isn't up on Muhlenberg's website yet, so we'll see, but 85% of Rs supporting Trump won't cut it here.

Wait for the next F&M poll that will be out at the end of the month. It's the best poll in the state.

[JoePhilly]

22. The Alabama part of PA never carries the state.

[BumRushDaShow]

24. No "inroads"

When you factor in a number of rim county GOP who have been disgusted with Trump and add in the big cities, there should be a similar result as 2012 & 2008, where you had crossover GOPers voting Dem for the top of the ticket.

The MOE is +/- 5.

[still_one]

25. For those who are so inclined, phone banking would be one of the most effective ways to counter the

republicans. It is one of the most effective tools to GOTV. It encourages registered Democrats to vote early or by mail where they can, and informs them where their polling places are located, and provides information if they need help getting to those polling places.

Getting Democrats to turnout will be key to this election

[Loki Liesmith]

28. I really need a way to volunteer where I don't talk to people

hate it.

They probably don't need a stats guru so I'm kind of stuck.

[TexasBushwhacker]

32. I did data entry for our mayor's campaign

They use a database software called NGP VAN. Pretty easy to learn.

[Loki Liesmith]

26. You forgot to average it.

Clinton is ahead by 5 in PA

[Cryptoad]

33. U got the $,,,

u can get a poll to that will tell u whatever u want to hear!

[TexasBushwhacker]

34. The good news is that Johnson and Steins support

is down by over 40%. How 10% could still be undecided is beyond me. Maybe they are people who just don't want to tell the pollsters anything.

[Mass]

36. This is a tiny poll (456 people) so the variations can be huge

I would not worry about this too much.

This said, there is not a lot of polling in PA, as it is considered a safe state for Hillary Clinton, so GOTV will have an important effect.

[stopbush]

38. Ridiculous to worry about PA.

Rs never win PA. The idea that a candidate who is being forsaken by large swaths of what traditional R support there is will somehow carry PA is ludicrous. Rs can't win PA when they are unified behind their candidate. Their chances with Trump are zero.

[democrattotheend]

40. The Clinton campaign is worried about PA

As evidenced by the fact that they have sent 3 A-list surrogates to Philly in the past 2 weeks, and Hillary herself was there this past week. Ohio has gotten a lot less attention than PA lately.

[stopbush]

42. Not worried at all. They're simply doing what any campaign would do,

firming up a substantial lead in a state heavy with electoral votes.

There's a difference between being worried and not taking anything for granted, though one could argue that PA is less secure than is CA. But then, every state is less secure than is CA.

[world wide wally]

39. I always thought Pa. was full of Americans.

Why would they vote for the Russian guy?

[Thekaspervote]

44. Look at 270towin.com pennsylvania

Shows recent polls and the history of Pennsylvania presidential elections. Other Pennsylvania polls look pretty good....and they have voted for the democrat candidate 7 out of the last 10 times

[NWCorona]

45. Anybody have the actual poll? I can see the one from last week.

[DonCoquixote]

49. If Pa goes red

Ed Rendell needs to serve hard time as the clown at a Tomato throw. His enabling of these archie bunker racist scum is what led to this.

[triron]

50. New Georgia

poll shows Trump up by 4 but over samples republicans (as lv) I believe (46% rep vs 37% dem).

[Foggyhill]

51. Yawn... Headline doesn't match polls "facts" as always in this election season.

Tired of those so called "polls", time to just flush them all out.

There is no way you can have +7 one week, then +2 few days late , then +5, then +9, etc.

This is not how people react in real life and only reflect how almost all those polls are
(even those positive to Clinton are no more than random noise, except maybe in saying she's ahead).

[DarthDem]

52. What Foggyhill Said

Polls are inherently pretty silly. And more often than not in recent years, they've been wrong, frequently very wrong. They need to be balanced with common sense and political norms.

Every recent cycle, some PA poll comes out showing that it's supposedly competitive down the stretch.

It never is.

PA is going to vote for Hillary Clinton. Toomey is also done.

[vdogg]

54. There is nothing that has happened since last weekend to account for this

May be statistical noise, other polls show the opposite. Let's wait and see what happens after the debate.

[vdogg]

55. Wow, just noticed the screen name.

Moderate republican? Why are you here?

[modrepub]

56. Why Not?

Not here trolling. Wouldn't be welcome by those in my party anyway. Be wary of putting yourself in an echo chamber. Am hoping Trump is not sworn in next January to be honest.

[Foggyhill]

57. Democrats are closer to the traditional moderate republican (from pre 1965) than the current GOP.

So looks like your in the right place.

I'm a Canadian voting Liberal, which are a bit to the left of center (or exactly center depending on who you ask).

The Mulroney era Conservatives are probably closer to the current Democrats (Center right).
The current Canadian conservatives are further right (more like early Reagan era GOP without the Dixiecrats).