Russian Troop Buildup Along Ukraine Border Raises War Fears

[Purveyor]

Source: Voice of America

Victor Vladimirov
August 04, 2016 4:30 PM

MOSCOW—
Russia's steady buildup of military forces along its border with Ukraine is raising concerns that Moscow, which annexed Crimea in 2014 and then began backing separatists in eastern Ukraine militarily — including with Russian troops — may be considering an overt military campaign against its southwestern neighbor.

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said in televised remarks last week that the military had created four new divisions, nine brigades and 22 regiments since 2013 and deployed them in the Southern Military District, adjacent to southern Ukraine, as well as in Russia's restive North Caucasus region.

"In recent years, the military-political situation on the southwestern strategic direction has become more acute," Shoigu said in citing the rationale for Moscow's military buildup in the region. "Mainly, this is due to the growing military presence of NATO in eastern Europe, the situation in Ukraine and the activities of international terrorist groups, including in the North Caucasus."

In an interview with the newspaper Vedomosti, Russian military expert Ruslan Pukhov noted that along with reactivating the 1st Guards Tank Army in Russia's Western Military District, near its border with northern Ukraine, Moscow plans to form two other armored groups for deployment near the Ukrainian border.

Read more: http://www.voanews.com/content/russia-troop-buildup-ukraine-border-raises-war-fears/3450445.html

---

UKRAINE REBELS WARN OF RETURN TO FULL FIGHTING 'VERY SOON'

Russian-backed rebels in Ukraine’s east have threatened a return to full-scale conflict “very soon” if Kiev does not recall forces away from the contact line, newspaper Izvestia has reported.

Over the last two months violence in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk regions, known collectively as Donbas, has risen to the highest levels in a year. Donetsk rebel representative Denis Pushilin said that “the situation worsens every day;” government forces have reported Moscow-backed rebel violations frequently average between 50-70 a day.

A February 2015 ceasefire agreement demanded both sides recall heavy weapons from the contact line, grant amnesty to prisoners of war and implement a series of other measures. But neither side has fully complied and both accuse the other of violating the ceasefire and provoking them.

“The situation worsens with each day,” Pushilin told the Russian newspaper. “There has been no progress to regulate the conflict politically since the last negotiations. The situation remains tense and at any moment it can heat up and escalate into fully-fledged fighting.”

MORE...

http://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-rebels-warn-return-full-fighting-very-soon-487129

[Duckhunter935]

1. Russia wants that land bridge and port

Eventually the entire southern coast.

[uawchild]

8. The Russians already have the port and are building a bridge

The most important port is Sevastapol, its where the Russian Black Sea Fleet was stationed even when Crimea was still controlled by Ukraine, is already in Russian hands.

Sevastopol has a population of 393,304 ,[5] concentrated mostly near the Bay of Sevastopol and surrounding areas. The location and navigability of the city's harbours have made Sevastopol a strategically important port and naval base throughout history. The city has been a home to the Russian Black Sea Fleet, which is why it was considered as a separate city in Crimea of significant military importance and was therefore once a closed city.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sevastopol

When power was cut off to Crimea from Ukraine, replacement power lines passing under the Strait of Kerch were built:

Minister of Crimean Affairs: Power lines through Kerch Strait to be ready by middle of 2017
http://www.kyivpost.com/article/content/ukraine/minister-of-crimean-affairs-power-lines-through-kerch-strait-to-be-ready-by-middle-of-2017-365745.html

And a land bridge is in the process of construction:

Kerch Strait Bridge

The Kerch Strait Bridge (rus. Керченский мост [kérchenskiy most] or Крымский мост [krímskiy most])is a road-rail bridge under construction in Russia, to span the Strait of Kerch between the Kerch Peninsula of Crimea and the Taman Peninsula of Krasnodar Krai. The current connection is by the Kerch Strait ferry between Port Kavkaz and Port Krym.

In January 2015, the multi-billion dollar contract for the construction of the bridge was awarded to Arkady Rotenberg's SGM Group. In May 2015, construction of the bridge commenced; it is projected to be opened on December 18, 2018.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerch_Strait_Bridge

So... what would Russia actually get by invading the predominantly ethnic Ukrainian parts of the rest of Ukraine again besides just a lot of unhappy and restive Ukrainians that would be impossible to suppress?

[Duckhunter935]

9. Yes they have that port and are building a bridge

To the annexed "island" of Crimea. They want a land bridge to Crimea and eventually to Moldova.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

2. Beware of a Putin August Surprise (or October or September). . . . nt

[Duckhunter935]

3. Olympic cover for the escalation

[NWCorona]

14. Remember what happened right after Sochi?

It's weird how things happen like clockwork

[Duckhunter935]

15. Yes indeed

[Xolodno]

23. Don't forget Bejing as well. nt

[NWCorona]

26. Dang... Clockwork!

[GulfCoast66]

5. Since Trump

Plays footsie with Putin and has said they will not invade Ukraine, I think it would be one hell of a surprise.

[TeamPooka]

4. Reporters need to stay on this and keep asking trump "what would you do to keep russia from invading

and what would you do if they invade?"
Over and over until he answers one way or the other.

[uawchild]

6. Ah, the Voice of America

Voice of America[edit]

Voice of America, The Voice, or VOA is the official external broadcast institution of the United States federal government, sponsoring programming for broadcast on the radio, television, and the Internet outside of the U.S. in 43 languages. Currently, VOA produces about 1,500 hours of news and feature programming each week to global audience in order, "to promote freedom and democracy and to enhance understanding through multimedia communication of accurate, objective, and balanced news, information and other programming about America and the world to audiences overseas."[59] Under § 501 of the Smith–Mundt Act of 1948, the Voice of America was forbidden to broadcast directly to American citizens until July 2013[60] when it was repealed in the Smith-Mundt Modernization Act provision of the National Defense Authorization Act for 2013.[61] The intent of the legislation was to protect the American public from propaganda actions by its own government.[62]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radio_propaganda#Voice_of_America

VoA seems to be poaching in on territory Radio Free Europe usually handles. I wonder why?

[uawchild]

7. Ah, Izvestia

The newsweek link in the OP comment section goes to an Izvestia story, so:

Izvestia

Website www.izvestia.ru
Izvestia (Russian: Известия; IPA: [ɪzˈvʲesʲtʲɪjə]) is a long-running high-circulation daily broadsheet newspaper in Russia. It was a newspaper of record in the Soviet Union from 1917 until the dissolution of the USSR in 1991.[2]

1992–present[edit]
Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Izvestia now describes itself as an "all-national" newspaper of Russia. The newspaper was owned by a vast holding company of Vladimir Potanin which had close ties with the government.[4] A controlling stake in Izvestia was purchased by state-owned Gazprom on 3 June 2005, and included in the Gazprom Media holding.[4] According to the allegations of the Committee to Protect Journalists, Raf Shakirov, editor-in-chief of Izvestia, was forced to resign because the government officials did not like the paper's coverage of the Beslan school hostage crisis.[5][6] Other sources informed that Potanin had asked him to leave for fear the Kremlin would be riled by the explicit photographs of the massacre published by Izvestia.[4] As of 2005, the circulation of Izvestia was 240,967. Its 2007 circulation certified by TNS Gallup Media was 371,000 copies.[7] Until his death on 1 October 2008, the chief artist was Boris Yefimov, the centenarian illustrator who had worked as Joseph Stalin's political cartoonist.

In 2008, Gazprom Media sold Izvestia to National Media Group.[8] The newspaper was relaunched in D2 (broadsheet) format after that and adopted a new slogan ("Making Izvestia [i.e., reports] from the news&quot , as well as extended simultaneously its business coverage. The paper's old business section, Finansovye Izvestia (Finance Izvestia), was closed, and Marker Weekly was launched instead in September 2011, distributed with Izvestia on Mondays. The Friday appendix Nedelya (The Week), devoted to culture and leisure activities, was relaunched as well.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Izvestia


Hmmm, two propaganda outlets, Izvestia and Voice of America, BOTH saber rattling on the same conflict. I wonder why?

[Duckhunter935]

10. It should be easy to prove false then

A lot of satellite pictures of these new bases had been posted.

[uawchild]

11. Building bases in Russia near their border?

Why wouldn't they build bases in their own country near the border of a newly anti-Russian Ukraine?

After the coup, I mean popular revolution, in Ukraine the relationship between the two countries has gone south

[Duckhunter935]

12. Of course to supply

Their vacationers. Funny how they never run out of munitions and now have more heavy weapons and tanks then Ukraine did as most of their military equipment was all but abandoned, unusable and no money to maintain it. Remember when the "rebels" were stealing WWII museum equipment to fight? Now they have equipment Ukraine never fielded, only Russia did.

[uawchild]

13. How long would we have to wait

to see if you are wrong? I find the idea of Russia occupying ethnic Ukrainian regions of the Ukraine as impractical to the point of being an impossibility.

I could be wrong.

I just don't see Russia being able to invade and occupy the entire southern Ukraine to Moldova. I just don't see it happening because it would be impossible to pacify so many millions of ethnic Ukrainians.

But again, how long would you have to wait to admit I might be right? A Year? Five years? Longer?

[Duckhunter935]

17. Why not, they already have

Most of the ethnic Ukrainians have already left the east and Crimea. Russia expects the same to happen again. They have not been challenged in occupation and expansion into several sovereign nations now. They have been emboldened by the inaction against them.

[uawchild]

18. Too many non-Russians too close to NATO

I respect your opinion and the points you make and I hope I have made my reasoning clear here also.

That said, how long do we have to wait before you or I admit we are wrong? I am wrong as soon as Russia or Russian backed rebels get your "land bridge" to Crimea, let alone conquer the southern Ukraine.

How long does that not have to happen before you would admit you are wrong? It's a serious question and not intended to sound snarky.

[Duckhunter935]

19. when they stop shipping weapons and soldiers to the east of

another sovereign state and they abide by the UN and Minsk resolutions.

[uawchild]

21. Come on, name a time frame

So you don't have to offer ANY time frame? So you can never be proven wrong?

Come on, you sound like a straight shooter, suggest a reasonable time frame to admit you might be wrong. How about 2 years? Too short a time? Please suggest a time you feel is reasonable.

We are talking about if and when Russia or Russian backed rebels will grab a "land bridge" to Crimea and/or conquer the southern Ukraine.

When is that going to happen? Please give me your time estimate. That way we can say whether you are making a testable argument or not.

[GulfCoast66]

25. Right

Because Russia has never occupied nations/regions that are not ethnic Russians.

[scscholar]

16. "...Kiev does not recall forces away from the contact line"

Sad to see the Ukraine poking sticks at them again.

[Duckhunter935]

20. Funny as Russia is not involved

so they must not be provoking them right, lol

[Xolodno]

24. Well, Ukraine was supposed to pull away from the line of contact, per Minsk II.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minsk_II

Pull-out of all heavy weapons by both sides to equal distance with the aim of creation of a security zone on minimum 50 kilometres (31 mi) apart for artillery of 100mm calibre or more, and a security zone of 70 kilometres (43 mi) for multiple rocket launchers (MRLS) and 140 kilometres (87 mi) for MLRS Tornado-S, Uragan, Smerch, and Tochka U tactical missile systems:

for Ukrainian troops, from actual line of contact;

Ukraine actually hasn't fulfilled many of the agreements. This is largely due to the ultra-nationalist in Parliament refusing to ratify. Russia's military build up isn't surprising, they already telegraphed that, as NATO forces build up they will reciprocate. But this is eerily similar to the Russian build up near Georgia prior to the Beijing games. When GWB's buddy in Georgia ordered the shelling and invasion into South Ossetia. Obviously the Russians knew this was coming and had its forces in well before the Georgian Army could cut off the tunnel to North Ossetia and were trounced in Abhakazia.

If Russia wanted full control of the rebelling republics, they could have had them by now already. So I'm looking at this from another angle, is Russia anticipating something? Or trying to discourage? Things in Kiev haven't exactly been very rosy and I've often wondered if Putin's end game was to let the Parliament self destruct and descend into chaos.

Its obvious you have the view that Putin wants a return of the Soviet Union, I reject that notion (as his actions don't show that believe it or not, including when Belarus made overtures to reunite and Putin rebuffed it, could have captured Tiblisi and would have a probable case to do so). If anything, he want's the Russian populated areas that were incorporated into these countries whose borders were drawn by the then Soviet Union to make it prohibitive for succession which was legal under the Soviet Constitution.

Incorporating a populace that resents you is more trouble than its worth, but incorporating a populace that embraces you while it resents the country they are in, that's a different story...particularly if the area they dwell in has strategic value.

[Hekate]

28. Well well

[Duckhunter935]

29. So is Russia in Ukraine?

That is my question. The trouble in Ukraine should not be a threat to Russia so why build new military facilities along the border? Why are you changing the subject, embarrassed?

[uawchild]

30. "Ukraine should not be a threat to Russia so why build new military facilities along the border?"

Did you miss the neo-Nazi battalions in the Ukrainian National Guard?


Azov Battalion

Neo-Nazi ideology and symbols[edit]
The unit was described as having connections to neo-Nazism, with members wearing neo-Nazi and SS symbols and regalia; the unit has neo-Nazis among its ranks. German ZDF television observed Azov battalion fighters wearing helmets with swastikas and "the 'SS runes' of Hitler's infamous black-uniformed elite corps", and on other occasions some of the soldiers have been reported to have SS tattoos.[57][58][59]

In writing about the battalion's ideology, Richard Sakwa states that its founding member Andryi Biletsky (leader of the Social-National Assembly) made statements about "historic mission" to lead "White Races of the world in a final crusade for their survival ... a crusade against the Semite-led untermenschen"; according to Sakwa, this ideology has its root in national integralism of 1920s and 30s.[60]

Ivan Katchanovski in an interview with Radio Sweden described the ideology of the battalion in the following words: "The SNA/PU advocate a neo-Nazi ideology along with ultranationalism and racism. The same applies to the SNA/PU commanders and members of the Azov battalion and many football ultras and others who serve in this formation. Biletsky is called the 'White Leader'."[61]

Some members of the unit were described as "neo-Nazi",[18][39][62][60][nb 1] an accusation that Ukrainian ministerial adviser, Anton Geraschenko has denied.[6][63][nb 2][nb 3] A spokesman for the unit has said this label applies to 10-20% of its recruits, and one commander attributed this ideology to misguided youth.[39] As a result of being a multicultural and multinational unit, those with far-right convictions live and fight side-by-side soldiers from 22 countries and various backgrounds, including Arabs, Russians, and Americans—as well as Christians, Muslims, and Jews.[65][better source needed]

On 11 June 2015, the United States House of Representatives passed amendments blocking any training of Azov by American forces, citing its neo-Nazi background as the reason.[66] On 26 June, Canadian defense minister declared as well that training by Canadian forces or support would not be provided to Azov.[67] However the amendment was later lifted when Azov became regular military unit subordinated to the Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs.[68] This move has been protested by Simon Wiesenthal Center which stated that the move highlights danger of Holocaust distortion in Ukraine.[68]

According to Shaun Walker, troops of the Azov Battalion use the logo of the neo-Nazi Social-National Assembly, which resembles a Wolfsangel on their banner.[58] Members of the unit have stated that the inverted Wolfsangel has a different history in Ukraine and represents the Ukrainian words for "idea of a nation".[30] In addition to the Wolfsangel, Azov soldiers have also been observed using stylized SS runes and swastikas on their uniforms.[69] The Azov Battalion has dismissed accusations that their unit promotes fascist symbolism, stating that any resemblance to Nazi symbols is a result of Russian propaganda.[70]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azov_Battalion#Neo-Nazi_ideology_and_symbols




Hmmm, coup in Ukraine, neo-Nazi battalions formed and then made part of the Ukrainian National Guard...

Yeah, I have NO IDEA EITHER why Russia would feel threatened and build bases IN RUSSIA near its border where neo-Nazi armed battalions are allowed to operate.

[Duckhunter935]

32. Oh yes, a couple of battalions with little equipment

Are really a threat to a nuclear power,

[uawchild]

33. Russia can't nuke the Azov Battalion

You know that.

And the Ukrainian National Guard units do have heavy weapons, including the Azov Battalion.

Hey, still waiting to hear your time estimate on when Russia or Russian backed rebels will grab the "land bridge" to Crimea. Will it be this summer? This year? By next summer?

[Duckhunter935]

34. Yes they had weapons that were neglected for 20 years

We're they even around before Putin invaded and annexed Crimea?

[Xolodno]

31. Not changing the subject.

You laughed off one of the provisions of the Minsk II agreements and I pointed it out and provided some context.

Are you embarrassed that you didn't know the provisions of the Minsk II agreements?

[Adsos Letter]

22. What would President Obama do?

What would President Obama do if the Russians invade Ukraine before the election is decided? (I keep thinking of them as the Soviets; shows how old I am).

What would Hillary do if It happens after she becomes president?

If Trump becomes president?

You post lots of interesting stuff on foreign affairs. Curious as to what you think.

[Hekate]

27. Putin wants a war in Europe so bad. What is our next POTUS supposed to do with him & his tanks?